CPR

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Chemicals Trends Report Top Indicators Dr Moncef
Hadhri Chief Economist mha_at_cefic.be Andrea
Weigel Economist awe_at_cefic.be Survey date
February 2007
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Top messages Executive summary-1-

• 2006 production growth in chemicals above 2005
  and above long- term average With a production
  growth of 1.9 for chemicals excluding
  pharmaceuticals, 2006 can be seen as an excellent
  year for the chemical industry with growth rates
  over the long term average. Pharmaceuticals,
  consumer chemicals and specialties are the top
  performers.
• Producer prices decrease slightly at the end of
  2006 In 2006, chemicals producer prices
  (excluding pharmaceuticals) increased by 4.9,
  rising continuously over the whole year with a
  slight decrease in the last month. Only at the
  very end of the year the producer price indexes,
  especially for petrochemicals and basic
  inorganics actually reflect the easing of the oil
  price pressure.
• All main chemicals sub sectors with sales
  increase of around 5 or moreChemicals excluding
  pharmaceuticals grow at 6.6 in the period
  January till November 2006, compared with the
  same period last year. Growth pace of overall
  chemicals is slowing down slightly towards the
  end of the year although some sub sectors, such
  as consumer chemicals, specialties and
  pharmaceuticals have rising sales figures.
• EU external trade surplus in chemicals has been
  increasing by 11 In 2006 the EU trade surplus
  in chemicals rose by 11, back to levels of 2003,
  comparing the period January to September 2006 to
  the same period last year. The increase in the
  trade surplus is spread over almost all the
  chemical sub sectors

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Top messages Executive summary-2-

• The EU chemical industry is uncertain about the
  year 2007 Business confidence for the chemical
  industry decreased sharply in January 2007,
  reflecting the uncertainty on future
  developments of the chemical industry after an
  excellent year 2006. However, the outlook is
  still optimistic. Manufacturing confidence is
  declining slightly but remains well above
  chemicals confidence.
• European economic sentiment indicator is at
  record level After a very successful year in
  which the EU economy grew even faster than the
  USA, the global perception of the EU economy is
  not surprisingly at record levels. Even consumers
  seem to be confident about their economic
  situation, as the EU confidence indicator shows
  in 2006. The services sector reaches a record
  level and seems to look into a bright future.

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Indicator 1 Chemicals Production
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Production trend Last update (December 2006)
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Chemicals (Jan-Dec 06 1.9)
excluding pharmaceuticals
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Pharmaceuticals (Jan-Dec 06 7.1)
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Petrochemicals (Jan-Dec 06 1.0)
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Polymers (Jan-Dec 06 -0.2)
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Basic inorganics (Jan-Dec 06 1.7)
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Specialty chemicals (Jan-Dec 06 3.2)
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Consumer chemicals (Jan - Dec 06 4.1)
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Overall chemicals (Jan - Dec 06 3.7)
including pharmaceuticals
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Indicator 2 Chemicals Prices
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Price trend Last update (December 2006)
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Chemicals (Jan-Dec06 4.9)
excluding pharmaceuticals
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Oil price
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Harmonised consumer index Energy prices
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Indicator 3 Chemicals sales
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Sales trend Last update (November 2006)
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Indicator 4 Chemicals Trade Development
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Extra-EU chemicals trade flows and balance
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Sectoral breakdown of EU chemicals trade balance
2005 Jan-Sep versus 2006 Jan-Sep
Data Source Eurostat (Comext) and Cefic
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Competitive position of the EU chemical industry
within the EU and on external markets
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Indicator 5 Chemicals Confidence
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EU confidence Indicator Chemicals versus total
manufacturing
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EU manufacturing Comparing the current situation
with the expectations
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Indicator 6 Business and Consumer Climate
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Global perception of the economic situation in
the EU
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Perception of the economic situation in the EU,
broken down by sector
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Cefic classification versus Eurostat Nomenclature
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1. Eurostat Classification NACE
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2. Cefic Classification