Urban Sprawl and the Future of the Built and Natural Environment in the Texas Triangle

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Urban Sprawl and the Future of the Built and
Natural Environment in the Texas Triangle
Elise M. Bright PhD, AICP, Professor
Department of Landscape Architecture Urban
Planning Texas AM University
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• Land suitability analysis
• - Developed by Ian McHarg (1969)
• - Used as a conservation tool (Larsen, et al.,
  1991 Miller, et al., 1998 Steiner, 2000
  Vogiatzakis, et al., 2006 Wang, 1996)
• - Main purpose identify areas intrinsically best
  suited for various types of land use, thereby
  producing greener, more sustainable
  development/use patterns

• Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
• - National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of
  1969
• - Main purpose estimate the impacts of
  alternative land use changes in advance, so
  adverse impacts can be avoided and greener/more
  sustainable projects selected

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The Texas Triangle accounts for 71 of the
population and is expected to increase its
population by more than 55 over the next 25
years.
Sources Regional Plan Association Dancing
Through the Scales From Region to Mega-Region,
Texas State Demographer, 2000 United States
Census
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• Analyze many major environmental elements
• Categorize each element
• Assign weights to each category for each
  anticipated land use type
• Divide the study area into pixels
• Add the weights for each future land use for each
  pixel
• Select the pixels that get the highest scores for
  each land use type

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• Category Proximity to Roads
• - near interstate highways
• - near state highways only
• - near F.M. roads only
• - not near any roads
• - near a combination of roadways
• Weights for Urban Development (0-10)
• - most desirable (9 points)
• - acceptable (7 points)
• - neutral (5 points)
• - most undersirable (1 point)

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• The Triangle is, as a whole, suitable for
  development from a transportation viewpoint.
• Already developed areas are excluded from
  spatial analysis.
• The results were calculated using theory to
  describe what the land is suitable for but not
  what it is being used for.
• Suitability simply determines what land uses
  the transportation network can best support.

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• The result of land suitability analysis show
  that for transportation suitability, the Triangle
  is optimal.
• The Triangle is bordered by the I-10, I-35, and
  I-45 interstate highways which make a good
  portion of the land accessible by highway.

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HAZARDS Hurricane Risk Zones Tornado Risk
Zones Location of Hazardous Materials
Facilities
POPULATION Population Density Total
Population Change Population Growth and
Implications
TRANSPORTATION Road Network
ECONOMICS Unemployment Rates
COMMUNICATIONS Fiber Optic Availability
Cell Phone Signal Strength Number of Cell
Phone Carriers Number of Internet Providers

HOUSING Housing Vacancy Rates
LAND USE Urban Area Buffers (2000)
National Land Cover Database (1992)
EDUCATION Academic Accountability Rating
Property Wealth Expenditures per Student
Student-to-Teacher Ratio
ENVIRONMENT Visual Quality Air Quality
Surface Water
PUBLIC SERVICES Police Protection Crime
Rates Infant Mortality Cancer Death Rates
GEOLOGY, SOILS TOPOGRAPHY Prime Farmlands
Aquifer Recharge Zones Slope and Salinity
ENERGY Location of Coal Deposits Location
of Power Generators Air Emissions (due to
electric generation)
WATER Water Supply
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Source http//www.thmp.info Texas Hazard
Mitigation Project
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Source http//www.thmp.info Texas Hazard
Mitigation Project
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Source http//www.thmp.info Texas Hazard
Mitigation Project
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1987 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Rate
1.000 1.160 1.284 1.407 1.531 0.012
2.000 2.321 2.568 2.815 3.062 0.025
3.000 3.481 3.852 4.222 4.593 0.037
4.000 4.642 5.136 5.630 6.123 0.049
5.000 5.802 6.420 7.037 7.654 0.062
6.000 6.963 7.704 8.444 9.185 0.074
7.000 8.123 8.988 9.852 10.716 0.086
8.000 9.284 10.272 11.259 12.247 0.099
9.000 10.444 11.556 12.667 13.778 0.111
10.000 11.605 12.840 14.074 15.309 0.123
Source http//www.thmp.info Texas Hazard
Mitigation Project
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1861

Source American Land Trust and Texas Cooperative
Extension TAMU System
Source Texas Water Development Board
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Suitability Because of the fragility of some
environmental features, their development
capabilities are quite limited.
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• Suitability Analysis Indicators
• Police Protection (2005)
• Crime Rates (2001)
• Infant Mortality (1995-1999)
• Cancer Rates (1999-2003)

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Unemployment (suitability indicator) Counties
with more employment (tract level)
County Unemployment rate Weights for Development
Harris 5.7 9
Dallas 5.7 9
Tarrant 5.1 9
Bexar 5 5
Travis 4.4 5
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Suitability Analysis
Measuring Vacancy Rates
Those areas most suitable for development lie in
the more rural areas of the Triangle.
The areas least suitable for developmentthose
with the lowest vacanciesare located on the
fringes of the areas metropolitan anchors.
Data Source the United States Census Bureau.
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Energy Indicators
Air emission levels Location of coal
deposits Location of power generating facilities
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Impact Assessment

• A sampling of issues

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• The population of the Texas Triangle is
  expected to increase by 57. from approximately
  14 million in the year 2000 to 23 million in
  2030.
• Most of the change will occur in the urban
  areas, as more an more people are leaving the
  rural areas and moving to the urban areas.
• The racial composition of the Texas Triangle
  will change by 2030 with the Hispanic population
  making up 42 of the total population.
• The population will be getting older, with the
  over 65 age group increasing 53.

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Population and Housing Projections
Housing projection totals parallel those of the
Triangle population.
Data Sources Texas State Demographer.
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Summary

• As the Triangles population increases (as it
  will over the next 25 years), adequate housing
  must be provided to the regions citizens.
• The provision of (total) housing units within the
  Triangle increased over the
• 30-year period from 2000 to 2030 reflecting the
  population increase within this same region.
• It appears that those counties within and around
  the more metropolitan areas of the TUT will
  experience greater growth in both population and,
  subsequently, housing.

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5.5 million
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Rapid urbanization, automobile traffic, and Hill
Country golf courses have affected the Edwards
Aquifers water quality, quantity and threatened
endangered species inhabiting the area.
Source www.edwardsaquifer.net/intro.html
Source Save our Springs Alliance
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• Very good soils are not
• extensive enough in Megapolis
• to be wastefully abandoned
• to non-agricultural uses
• - Jean Gottman
• 1992-2000 ½ million acres of ranchland lost to
  land uses other than agriculture.
• 1990s 180,000 acres of Blackland prairies has
  been lost to urbanization

Source American Farmland Trust and Texas
Cooperative Extension TAMU System
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• Detrimental effects on plant growth and final
  yield
• Damage to infrastructure (roads, bricks,
  corrosion of pipes and cables)
• Reduction of water quality for users and
  sedimentation problems

Source Commonwealth of Australia
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• Oil Resources
• Texas contains 22 of proved reserves in the U.S.
• Triangle region contains 24,404 producing oil
  wells

Texas Railroad Commission, Oil and Gas Well
Counts by County http//www.rrc.state.tx.us/divisi
ons/og/statistics/wells/wellcount/index.html
Energy Information Agency, Department of Energy,
Crude Oil Proved Reserves http//tonto.eia.doe.gov
/dnav/pet/xls/pet_crd_pres_a_EPC0_R01_mmbbl_a.xls
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• Natural Gas Resources
• Texas contains 26 of all proved reserves in the
  U.S.
• Triangle region contains 15,385 producing gas
  wells

Texas Railroad Commission, Oil and Gas Well
Counts by County http//www.rrc.state.tx.us/divisi
ons/og/statistics/wells/wellcount/index.html
Energy Information Agency, Department of Energy,
Natural Gas Reserves Summary http//tonto.eia.doe.
gov/dnav/ng/xls/ng_enr_sum_a_EPG0_R11_BCF_a.xls
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The results show that without guidance there will
be great environmental impacts on surface water,
preserved lands, air quality, etc. due to rapid
urbanization in the Triangle area.
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Summary

• Because the problem areas for air quality in the
  Texas Triangle are also those projected to have
  the most growth, air quality protection or
  mitigation will need to be sought.
• With many of the major water basins within the
  Texas Triangle poised for growth, measures must
  be taken to protect the quality and hazard levels
  of those water bodies.
• Policy issues put the unique land areas at stake
  for depletion.

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POPULATION Projections show that population will
grow by over 55 by the year 2030.
TRANSPORTATION By 2020, there will be an
estimated 60 increase in usage for train
freight, 40 increase in air freight usage and
54 increase in truck freight usage.
ECONOMICS The four primary urban counties will
concentrate 75 of the total employment in the
TUT.
EDUCATION Increased enrollment will create the
need for almost 50,000 new teachers and 1,800
additional schools by 2030.
HOUSING Nearly 7.5 million housing units will be
needed by 2030 in order to house the areas
population.
PUBLIC SERVICES By 2030, the projected 7.7
million residents without insurance will cost
taxpayers nearly 6 billion to cover unpaid
services.
LAND USE The total land area of the 4 major urban
areas will double in size between 1990-2030 from
3,331 sq. miles to 7,037 sq. miles.
ENERGY Total energy consumption could increase by
up to 60. California currently has a
population 58 larger than the State of Texas but
uses 35 less total energy than Texas (who tops
out at 559.7 million BTUs per capita).
WATER We are currently using 33 of total
available water.
HAZARDS Major urban areas are faced with
increased population vulnerability due to
tornadoes and hurricanes/subsidence with
secondary hazards associated with HazMat
facilities.
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Build Political Support for Planning Future Growth
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Pursue Regional Coordination

• Service provision (transit, sewer, etc.)Portland
• Regional finance (TIF, tax base sharing, housing
  bonds)--Minneapolis
• Growth managementWash., Ore., Calif.
• Environmental regulationsEdwards
• Regional government?

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Resident empowerment Town meetings
Neighborhood governmentBostons Dudley Street
Is city government obsolete?
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Require Good Planning

• Address all aspects of the natural and built
  environment (web)
• Use a comprehensive, microplanning approach, govt
  and private regulations

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Thank you!

• Questions?