Sugar Cane Resources for Economic Development: a Case Study in Luena

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Import Substitution and Export Potential for
Biofuels Trade the case of ethanol from
sugarcane and sweet sorghum
United Nations Foundation and German NGO
Forum International Conference Sustainable
Bioenergy Challenges and Opportunities Bonn,
Germany, 12-13 October 2006
Francis X. Johnson, Stockholm Environment
Institute
Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate-General
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Overview of Presentation

• Energy-Environment-Development Driving Forces
• Productive Biofuel crops sugarcane and sweet
  sorghum
• Focus on southern Africa (SADC)
• Global market shares
• Capacity of existing factories reaching
  economies-of-scale
• Geographic Information Systems Analysis
  potential
• Scenarios for future production and blending
• Export potential
• CARENSA an International Network/Partnership
• North-South-South collaboration research and
  analysis, technology transfer, capacity-building,
  policy dialogue

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Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for
biofuels development and North-South-South
Collaboration

• Rural development - creation of sustainable
  livelihoods
• Enhancing the role of women as community leaders
• Relieving resource pressures and stresses
• Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration
• Energy security local regional global
• Rural health issues - indoor air
• Urban health issues lead (in Africa), air
  quality
• future competitiveness of agro-industries
• Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits
• Developing countries looking for foreign
  investment through Clean Development Mechanism
  (CDM)
• Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly
  volatile market
• Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through
  diversification

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Comparison of biofuel yields
Crop Seed yield (t/ha) Crop yield (t/ha) Biofuel yield (litre/ha) Energy yield (GJ/ha)
Sugarcane (juice) 100 7500 157.5
Palm oil 20 3000 105.0
Sweet sorghum 60 4200 88.2
Maize 7 2500 52.5
Jatropha 2 700 24.5
Rapeseed 1.47 638 22.3
Soybean 2.67 524 18.3
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A typology of liquid biofuels (Fulton, UNEP, 2006)
Fuel Feedstock Regions where currently produced GHG reduction impacts v. petroleum fuel Costs Biofuels yield per hectare of land Land types
Ethanol Grains (wheat, maize) US, Europe, China low-moderate moderate moderate croplands
Ethanol Sugar cane Brazil, India, Thailand high low high croplands
Ethanol biomass (cellulose) none high high high croplands, marginal lands
Biodiesel (FAME) oil seeds (rape, soy) US, Europe moderate moderate low croplands
Biodiesel (FAME) Palm oil, jatropha South/SE Asia, Africa Moderate-high low-moderate Moderate-high Coastal (palm)/various (jat.)
Biodiesel (BTL) biomass none high high high croplands, marginal lands
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GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels
Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from
biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel
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Cost Per Tonne of CO2 Reduction is Currently
Lowest in Brazil Costs in IEA Countries are
High(based on 30/bbl oil)
Source IEA, 2004, Biofuels for Transport An
International Perspective
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Shares of global sugarcane production, 2004
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Global Scenarios in 2030 for Ethanol blending
10 gasoline 3 diesel of IEA 2030 Projection
276 bl Scenario E4 exceeds this projected
blending market!!
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Southern African Development Community (SADC)
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Potential Trade Balances (in the absence of major
trade barriers) for bio-ethanol in the
medium-term (2025-2030)

• Brazil net exporter
• U.S. net importer
• Other N S America self-sufficient
• China net importer
• India self-sufficient
• SE Asia net exporter
• EU net importer
• Western Africa self-sufficient
• Southern and Eastern Africa net exporter

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Land suitability for high input levels Sweet
Sorghum production in Africa Source FAO
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Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in
Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source
UKwZN 2005, South Africa
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Scenarios for SADC ethanol supply and demand
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Potential supply for export (million litres)
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Import Duties on Ethanol are High in Many IEA
Countries
Note No duties in Japan and New Zealand
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Some concluding thoughts

• Significant potential for global biofuels
  expansion to meet both development and
  environment goals
• It is neither necessary nor desirable to wait for
  next generation biofuels excellent
  opportunities, particularly in bio-ethanol, are
  available now
• North-South and South-South cooperation is needed
  to develop the market
• Subsidies for inefficient biofuels (e.g. rapeseed
  in Germany and corn in U.S.) are harmful to the
  global economy AND to the environment
• - stifles innovation
• - creates trade barriers
• - blocks important development opportunities for
  least developed countries
• - prevents implementation of cost-effective
  climate strategies
• - contributes to continuing fossil fuel
  dependence
• - endangers global peace and security
• The 100 billion USD spent annually in the OECD in
  direct agricultural subsidies is also damaging to
  development and trade objectives

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Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa
(CARENSA) Funding European Commission Fifth
Framework Research Programme (EC FP5)
www.carensa.net
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate-General
SEI, Stockholm Environment Institute (SCIENTIFIC
COORDINATOR) IC, Imperial College Centre for
Energy Policy and Technology, UK UM, University
of Mauritius, Chemical and Sugar Eng. Dept. UND,
University of Natal, Durban, South Africa AUA,
Agricultural University of Athens, Greece CIRPS,
Interuniversity Research Centre on Sustainable
Development, Italy BUN, Biomass Users Network,
Zimbabwe CEEEZ, Centre for Energy, Environment,
and Engineering, Zambia ISO, International Sugar
Organisation FAO, Food and Agricultural
Organisation (FAO), United Nations WII, Winrock
International India CENBIO, National Reference
Centre for Biomass, Brazil UNICAMP, University of
Campinas SADC, Southern African Development
Community
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Thanks to UN Foundation and German NGO
Forum AND to our International Partners
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate-General