Freshfel/SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference

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Freshfel/SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference

• 25th September 2009

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Northern HemisphereGlobal Crop forecast
2009-2010
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Northern Hemisphere ProductionTotal citrus

• Data based on official data, input from
  representative organisations and businesses to
  provide a trend for forthcoming season
• Objective is to provide trends
• Data from Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Morocco Egypt
  is provisional we hope to confirm these
  estimations in the coming weeks. Consequently
  information on export is still too early to be
  set.
• Total citrus production in NH very similar to
  last year, with a 0.2 decrease.
• Orange -7.4
• Easy peelers -2
• Lemons 0.3
• Grapefruits 18

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Northern Hemisphere ProductionTotal citrus
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Northern Hemisphere ProductionOranges
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Northern Hemisphere ProductionEasy Peelers
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Northern Hemisphere ProductionLemons
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Northern Hemisphere ProductionGrapefruit
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Northern Hemisphere Production Exports - Total
citrus
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Northern Hemisphere Production Exports - Oranges
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Northern Hemisphere Production Exports - Easy
Peelers
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Northern Hemisphere Production Exports - Lemons
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Northern Hemisphere Production Exports -
Grapefruit
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Northern HemisphereCountry information2008-2009
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Freshfel Citrus TeleconferenceNorthern
Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 seasonSPAIN

• 25th September 2009

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Key points of 2009/10 season

• GENERAL CITRUS COMMENTS
• Overall reduction
• Maturity coming later
• Better sizes than last season
• Very good quality conditions
• Exports volumes to be similar to 2008/9 season.
• Less quantities will be sent to processing
• ORANGES
• Overall Production down by 27
• Less production to be considered in all varieties
  but reduction is not so important in mid season
  navels

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Key points of 2008/09 season

• EASY PEELERS
• Overall Production down by 9
• Reduction is concentrated in medium/late
  varieties
• LEMONS
• Overall Production down by 20
• Reduction is mainly concentrated in Vernas
  (-70).
• Slight reduction in Finos
• GRAPEFRUITS
• Overall production down by 15
• No interest in processing
• Export season to start 3rd week of october

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Freshfel Citrus TeleconferenceNorthern
Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 seasonItaly

• 25th September 2009

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Key points of 2009/10 season

• GENERAL CITRUS COMMENTS
• Campaign expected to be improved on last year,
  considered back to normal
• Oranges and soft citrus expected to be at levels
  similar to 2007/08
• Lemons expected to be the same as last year

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Freshfel Citrus TeleconferenceNorthern
Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 seasonGreece

• 25th September 2009

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Key points of 2008/09 season

• Key points which had an impact during the
  2008/09 season
• Heat on early June 2008.
• Heat all over August 2008.

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Indications for 2009/10 season

• Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts,
  water situation, flowering, planting information,
  picking dates, etc.
• No problems till today has occurred
• Ordinary (normal) harvest is expected.

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Current issues of concern

• Issues expected to have significant impacts on
  2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...)
• Decrease of demand due to the economic crisis.
• Intense competition.

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Freshfel Citrus TeleconferenceNorthern
Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 seasonCYPRUS

• 25th September 2009

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Key points of 2008/09 season

• Key points which had an impact during the
  2008/09 season
• The drought of the previous years.
• The low level of producer prices of the last few
  years specially for grapefruit .
• Hale storms experienced during the 2008/9 picking
  season.
• ..

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Indications for 2009/10 season

• Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts,
  water situation, flowering, planting information,
  picking dates, etc.
• Water situation improved but still strong
  restrictions on quantity of water available for
  irrigation......
• Flowering was good but strong drop experienced
  and affected expected production.......
• ......

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Current issues of concern

• Issues expected to have significant impacts on
  2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...)
• Russia will the MRL sontrols become stricter ?
  Last season the barrier proved to be only
  theoretical.......
• Is Europe and the world coming out of the
  crisis?......
• Weather conditions in producing countries that
  may affect exportable quantities. ......

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Freshfel Citrus TeleconferenceNorthern
Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 seasonMorocco

• 25th September 2009

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Current issues of concern

• Forecast to be concluded by 5th october
• Soft citrus trends fruit bearing being normal
  and expected decline of clementines in Berkane by
  10. Heat problems which could result in a
  problem of sizing. Sharp decrease of Nour due to
  alternate bearings ( -40)
• Oranges expected to be similar to last year,
  similar fruit bearing, better climatic outlook
  for the start of the autumn could stimulate sizes
  which remain so far an issue
• Too early to make export estimates

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Freshfel Citrus TeleconferenceNorthern
Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 seasonTURKEY

• 25th September 2009

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Key points of 2008/09 season

• Key points which had an impact during the
  2008/09 season
• The good quality of the easy peelers lead to an
  important increase of the exports
• Opening up of the Iranian market and increase of
  exports to Iraqi markets paved the way to the
  remarkable increase of the citrus exports
• Addendum to the memorandum between Turkey and
  Russian Federation signed

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Indications for 2009/10 season

• Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts,
  water situation, flowering, planting information,
  picking dates, etc.
• Relatively cooler summer has passed with regard
  to previous years
• Higher volume of production is expected for
  lemons and grapefruits
• Increase of grapefruit production may lead to
  sizing problems for the export markets

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Current issues of concern

• Issues expected to have significant impacts on
  2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...)
• Attempts continue to open Far East markets.
• Citrus Buying Mission Program is planning to be
  organized with broad participation of companies
  from 27 countries in November.
• Turkish Citrus Promotion Group is to enhance and
  develop promotion activities in Russia.

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Freshfel Citrus TeleconferenceNorthern
Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 seasonUSA

• 25th September 2009

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Indications for 2009/10 season

• The initial citrus crop report for the 2009/10
  season will be released by the USDA at 830 AM on
  Friday, October 9th. There have been some
  private forecasts and industry surveys to date,
  and much speculation particularly concerning the
  Florida industry and the spread of citrus
  greening. It is clearly difficult to factor for
  abandoned groves. Therefore, all we can do at
  this point is to provide some impressions.
• Texas
• Grapefruit The production for the new campaign
  will be down slightly, 5 to 10 from drought
  conditions.

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Florida

• Growing conditions have been quite favorable with
  good rains and lots of sunshine and the absence
  of strong tropical storms. Yet there are
  continuing indications of a trend towards lower
  production.
• Oranges A reliable private forecast projects
  6.34 m tons a 5 decline from the last 2008/09
  crop report. About 5 of this crop will move
  into fresh juice markets and 72,000 tons will be
  fresh Navel Oranges which would be down 10 from
  last year. The balance of the crop will go to
  processing.
• Tangerines The early varieties, Fallglo and
  Sunburst could be down by as much as 10 while
  the Honey Tangerine production could be up by 35
  as the trees have recovered from the late winter
  freeze. From a base volume of 185,000 tons we
  see a gradual decline in the category.
• Grapefruit The 2008/09 crop of 840,000 tons was
  18 below 2007/08 and a further decline is
  projected for 2009/10. While maturity and sizing
  are very good the high incidence of Melanose will
  reduce the fresh pack-out.

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California

• Navel Oranges At 1.4 m tons this crop is
  forecast to be up by 5 over last seasons final
  report. Surveys indicate good quality and
  sizing.
• Tangerines We anticipate an increase in
  production as more Clementines and Late Mandarin
  acreage comes into the bearing cycle. Estimates
  have last years movement at 45 million 2.3 kilo
  equivalents and that could easily reach 55
  million this season. The trees are in the ground
  to produce over 100 million cartons. Seedy fruit
  continues to be a challenge along with overall
  yields which could be linked to growing
  conditions and/or cultural practices.
• Grapefruit No major change in production is
  expected, with an estimate of 140,000 tons.
• Lemons The desert areas of Southern California
  and Arizona are forecast to be down by 30 from
  lack of rain, although this is not the primary
  district for production. A crop of 725,000 tons
  would be down by 14 from the final 2008/09 crop
  report.

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Economic Impact

• The prolonged economic downturn has caused
  consumers to be more cautious if not fearful of
  the future, and these concerns are definitely
  influencing buying behavior. The search for
  value, either real or perceived manifests itself
  in emerging trends
• Dining-In or shopping at local produce markets
• Trading down for example exotic fruits for
  bananas
• Bulk commodities versus prepared salads
• Packaged Easy-Peelers versus the 5 lb. carton
• A 20 reduction in fresh lemon sales to food
  service
• In general the volume of produce sales in the USA
  market has remained steady but sales value is
  probably down by 5. There is constant shifting
  of purchasing with the produce section, all in
  search of value.

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Freshfel Citrus TeleconferenceNorthern
Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 seasonChina

• 25th September 2009

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Key points of 2008/09 season

• Key points which had an impact during the
  2008/09 season China Pomelos
• Strong local market
• Currency issues
• (Too) Many (inexperienced) players in the market
  (exporters as well as importers)
• MRL-issues

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Indications for 2009/10 season

• Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts,
  water situation, flowering, planting information,
  picking dates, etc.
• Favourable weather conditions pre-season
• Rain during harvest till now
• Guangdong Province starts early with their
  (inferior) fruits Spoils the Fujian markets
• Around 30 more fruit (in kg) on the trees
• Larger calibre fruit than usual
• Fruit from Pinghe one week earlier than planned

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Current issues of concern

• Issues expected to have significant impacts on
  2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...)
• Inferior fruits and speculative loadings led to
  rapid decrease of the market prices
• Main suppliers and retailers act cautious
• Less fruit shipped August/September than last
  season
• More consciousness of the MRL theme than before
• Develop MRL EU/RETAIL - ok - and
• possibly not ok- market offers
• More strict involvement of local governments
• Cautiousness with regards to payments/credits

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China market estimates (main export products -
difference to last season)

• Apples - 30
• Pears - 25
• Ginger 5
• Garlic -30
• Pomelos 30

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Southern HemisphereSummary export season2009
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SH Orange exports week 35
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SH Orange exports week 35
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SH Soft Citrus exports week 31
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SH softcitrus exports week 31
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SH Lemon exports week 37
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SH softcitrus exports week 37