A comparison of productivity in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States over the pas

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A comparison of productivity in France, Japan,
the United Kingdom and the United States over
the past century

• Gilbert Cette
• Yusuf Kocoglu
• Jacques Mairesse

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A comparison of productivity in France, Japan,
the United Kingdom and the United States over
the past century

• Goal of the Paper and method
• Data
• Long run trends
• Trends over the entire period
• Trends by sub-periods
• Trends over the 1980-2006 period
• Conclusion

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1. Goal of the Paper and method

• comparison of productivity
• in France, Japan, the UK and the US
• over the very long run (i.e. since 1890)
• over the medium run (i.e. over the past 25
  years)
• scope whole economy
• based on the traditional growth accounting
  framework
• examine and compare
• levels and growth rates
• of labour productivity, both per employee
• and per hour, and of TFP

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2. Data

• use aggregate historical data series from
  different sources (Maddison,) for the past
  years, we use national accounts available
• re-estimate the capital series for the four
  countries and the five products on the basis of
  the investment series
• assume constant depreciation rates per investment
  product and constant global profit share
• For ICT, same price estimates (relative to GDP
  price indices) for France, Japan and the United
  Kingdom as those in the United States

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3. Long run trends3.1 Trends over the entire
period (1/5)
Productivity average annual growth, 1890-2006, in

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3. Long run trends3.1 Trends over the entire
period (2/5)
Increase in productivity level from 1890 to 2006
(18901)
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3. Long run trends3.1 Trends over the entire
period (3/5)
Labour productivity per hour, as a of the US
level
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3. Long run trends3.1 Trends over the entire
period (4/5)
Total factor productivity, as a of the US level
Same for TFP
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3. Long run trends3.1 Trends over the entire
period (5/5)
Labour hourly productivity level, PPP dollar 2000
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3. Long run trends3.2.Trends by sub-periods
Average annual hourly labour productivity growth
(in ) and contributions (in percentage points)
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4. Trends over the 1980-2004 period
Average annual hourly labour productivity growth
(in ) and contributions (in percentage points)
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5. Conclusion (1/2)

• Some of the main results
• Over the past 120 years
• substantial economic growth and productivity
  gains in the four countries
• France remarkable catching up of the US
  productivity level, mainly for TFP
• Japan impressive catching up process, stopped
  in the 1990s
• UK long term decline (1890-1950) followed by a
  catching up process (1950-1995), mainly for TFP
• The Big Wave
• mainly explained in the four countries by TFP
  growth
• Top of the big wave before WW2 in US, after in
  the three other countries

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5. Conclusion (2/2)

• Change of productivity leader
• UK at the beginning of the 20th cent.
• US after
• No definitive leadership
• In 2006
• Hourly labour productivity US France gt UK gt
  Japon
• Productivity per employee US gt France gt UK gt
  Japon
• Total factor productivity UK gt US gt France gt
  Japon
• These differences come from capital intensity and
  working time
• ICT capital deepening
• Acceleration in 1995-2000
• Slowdown in 2000-2006