The Threat, Policy and Mission

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The Threat, Policy and Mission

• Wayne Solomon
• June 2009

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International Conflict,Terrorist State and
International Terrorism

• Geopolitical Issues (tensions) Political
  (territorial), Economic, Religious (ethnic) and
  Military (Conventional, WMD, terrorist State, and
  international terrorist).
• International Terrorism contains all the above
  elements with a bias towards ethnic and religious
  differences
• Ethnic and religious divides are easy to define
  but nearly impossible to separate
• Innocent Civilians are the off times the major
  victims!
• Terrorism is an Asymmetric force multiplier by
  gaining the attention (sympathy, fear, etc.) of
  the populace
• Countering that is resistance to lack of security
  and populace realization that they are targets.

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Terrorist States( State Dept. Report, 2002-2003)
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Terrorist States (State Dept. of 2002), contd

• Lybia, Qadhafi attempts to shed past pariah
  status (bombs on A/C) and takes a stand against
  al-Qaida. (Recently gave up his nuclear program
  and is in normalization talks)
• N.Korea continues to sell ballistic missile
  technology to other states (Continues)
• Sudan, civil war is a problem but government is
  curbing terrorism for export. (Political
  instability)
• Syria has permitted various anti-Israeli groups
  to operate, and funnel support to Palestine, but
  Govt has not supported terrorism elsewhere in
  the world. (Today, kind a mixed bag of support)

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Madeleine Albright (1999)

• Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Sudan
  (Afganastan?) and Syria defined as Terrorists
  states since 1993. A policy issue
• In 1998 state sponsors are committing less, not
  more terrorism
• Osama Bin Laden was responsible for 6000 injuries
  and deaths in 1998, alone and is really his own
  separate state
• She noted that state sponsored terrorism is being
  replaced with numerous international groups that
  cover several states
• Since then most countries have been damaged by
  international terrorism but not necessarily state
  sponsored

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United States Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act

• Judgements against state sponsored terrorism part
  of international law (100s of millions)
• Alejandre, 1996 Cuba shot down U.S. Civilian A/C
• Flatow, 1995 Iranian funded bombing in Isreal
  killed U.S. college student
• Cicippio, three U.S. citizens kidnapped in
  Beruit, 1985
• Anderson, 1995 was kidnapped in Beruit
• Eisenfeld, 1996 two U.S. citizens killed by bomb
  in Isreal
• Higgens, U.S. marine colonel kidnapped while
  serving U.N. in Lebonon, 1987
• Hezbollah was involved in several of the above
  and judgements were obtained in these cases.

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States, Weapons of Mass Destruction
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States, Weapons of Mass Destruction, contd
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Update of State Sponsored Terrorism (2003)

• State Department has continuous updates
• Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, N. Korea, Sudan
  and Syria are changing as pressure is applied
• Some of these states have been essentially
  removed from the list
• Heavy political and economic pressure from U.S.
  and others has reduced the direct involvement by
  governments to sanctuary (mainly)
• Last few years cooperation between nations has
  continued to pressure terrorist states

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Counterproliferation Policy(CPI)

• U.S. and NATO began to develop a policy to
  counter rapid spread of WMD in 90s as the cold
  war ended
• Developing new capabilities to deal with
  proliferation (Stealth, Anti-missile, High Energy
  Laser, etc.)
• Developing several regional alliances with
  similar goals
• Need to be consistent with political goals of
  States, France, Germany, Russia, China, etc.( U.S
  has had the lead in weapons, so is suspect with
  regard to partnerships even before Iraq war)
• After Bosnia, with Nuclear arms in the hands of
  weaker countries Pakistan, India, and others,
  transfer of nuclear WMD is of great concern (i.e.
  N. Korea, Iran, others)
• In the 90s there was much discussion about a
  broad global policy including pre-emptive strikes
  within NATO and no general agreement, even though
  European States are within range of Mid-East
  weapons. Still planning went on, no apparent
  action.
• U.S. undertook a serious Ballistic Missile
  Defense (BMD) effort in spite of much skepticism
  among major alliance partners
• Dept. of State and Defense have different views
  and roles in CPI and lessons of recent limited
  wars need to be addressed (Intelligence?).
  Leadership taken by National R and D community
  around technology capabilities.

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Counterproliferation Capibility Enhancements
began in 90s

• Detection, identification, and characterization
  of biological and chemical warfare agents ,ltlt
• Cruise missile defense lt
• Theater ballistic missile defense lt
• Detection, characterization, and defeat of
  underground WMD facilities lt
• Collection, analysis, and dissemination of
  actionable intelligence to the warfighter ltlt
• Robust passive defense to enable continued
  operations on the NBC battlefield ltlt
• Biological warfare vaccine research, development,
  testing, and production ltlt
• Target planning for WMD targets ltlt
• Biological/chemical agent defeat ltlt
• Detection and tracking of WMD and WMD-related
  shipments ltltlt
• Support for Special Operations Forces ltlt
• Prompt mobile target detection and defeat ltlt
• Defense against paramilitary, covert delivery,
  and terrorist WMD threats ltlt
• Support export control activities of the US
  government lt
• Support inspection and monitoring activities of
  verifiable arms control agreements and regimes
  ltltlt
• ENHANCEMENTS Little done, lt modest effort ltlt
  high level, ltltlt Excel

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Update (Center for International Strategic
Studies, 2009)

• Changing Multi-polar world with state and
  non-state actors
• Russia, India and China
• Radical Islam
• US Leadership military, climate change, global
  health, etc.
• Power of Petro States has been used as leverage
  against Terrorist states

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Additions since 2008

• The new policy as outlined by Obama will be a mix
  of hard and soft power,
• It will no more be a war on terror as projected
  by the previous administration. Instead, it will
  be a campaign against terrorism.
• While continued military operations are
  necessary, military operations alone cannot
  eradicate terrorism.

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Terrorism Security Threats beyond WMD

• Many sectors of Critical Domestic( homeland)
  Structure
• Foreign and Domestic Ports
• Borders
• Cyber Attacks
• Natural Disasters
• Air Traffic
• Terrorist Networks
• Many more.

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Mitigate WMD Proliferation Threats

• Nuclear, Radiological, Bio, Chemical
• New Nuclear and Potential Nuclear States
• Non-State Actors may acquire
• Efficacy of International Control..

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Struggle Against Radical Terrorists

• Al Qaeda, Numerous Radical Organizations in
  Middle East, Far East and Africa
• A somewhat atypical Asymmetric Threat

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Promote Human Rights and Security

• Energy Security
• Environmental Security
• Economic Security

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U.S. Systems

• Examples from U.S. inventory of WMD Related
  systems

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Naval Weapons

• Trident, C-4 and D-5 Ballistic Missile group
• Part of the Strategic Triad Nuclear Deterrent
• Tomahawk, SLCMs
• Can be both Tactical and strategic in character

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Naval Weapons, contd
Launch platforms for Intermediate range missiles
USS Ohio (SSBN-726) (First of class)
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Nuclear Powered Carrier Force

• Projection of Force
• Self-contained naval units, can operate anywhere
  U.S. presence is needed

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ABM Development

• Began with nuclear tipped Nike X (Spartan) and
  shorter range Sprint Missile Development in 70s
• Radiation XRay enhanced part.
• EMP against missile electronics
• Part of Safeguard Program was canceled after test

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More Recent History

• Moscow ABM System was early successful version in
  60s and 70s
• Development of Gorgon(long Rng) and Gazelle
• Development of US Safeguard System was abandoned
  because
• of cost arguments
• Overwhelmed by MIRVE
• BMD Systems

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Operational BMD Systems

• Effective against tactical systems, THAD And
  Standard Arm Aegis missile Cruiser
• Limited use against BM

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Aegis System

• Numerous successful tests against a variety of
  missiles and satellites

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Strategic Missiles

• Minuteman III, One arm of nuclear triad

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Peacekeeper (MX)
Next generation after Minuteman, Operates from
CONUS
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Strategic Bomber

• B 52, Big deterrent and multi-purpose delivery
  system being removed from serv.

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Stealth Technology

• B-2, Modern Delivery System with long range
  capability. Limited numbers

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Supersonic Bomber

• B-1, Quick Response, deep penetration, costly to
  maintain

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Predator UAV

• Used in Mid-East piloted from U.S. bases
• Space SATCOM assets for control and operation.

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Intelligence Agencies

• Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) provides
  military intelligence to policymakers and force
  planners.
• Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Provides
  overall intelligence assessments to policy
  makers.
• National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA)
  provides geospatial intelligence.
• National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) analyzes
  military and CIA aircraft and satellite
  reconnaissance information.
• National Security Agency (NSA) collects foreign
  signals intelligence and protects information
  systems from compromise.
• Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps
  intelligence agencies collect intelligence
  relevant to the needs of their services

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Spy Planes

• SR-71, Photo Intel (retired)
• U-2, Photo Intel

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Unmanned Recognizance (UAV)

• Global Hawk, High Altitude surveillance
• Predator, Battlefield surveillance and
  interdiction

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Latest Spy Plane?

• Aurora? (hoax!)

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Spy Satellites

• Keyhole, KH-11, elliptical polar orbit, visible,
  I.R. digital Imaging twice a day over target.
• Early versions dropped film to surface.
• KH-11 and later types, 4-6 ft digital imaging
• Download Real-time Data through Milstar
  communication satellite constellation

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Radar Imaging

• Lacrosse, 400 Mi. orbit target twice a day with
  Synthetic Aperture Radar can target beneath the
  clouds.
• Images resolved 2-4 ft.

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Missile Warning

• DSP, Defense Support Program, 22000 mi.
  Geosynchronous Orbit, Thermal Imaging to detect
  Rocket Launch

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Global Positioning (GPS)

• Low earth orbit, Precise Navigation for Military
• Precision weapons Delivery
• (Air Force, Naval Systems)
• Battlefield positioning (Army)

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Communications Satellite

• DCSS, Milstar used for world-wide communications
  from 22000 Mile Synchronous Orbits
• Large Solar Arrays to generate lots of Power

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Weather

• Defense Meteorological Satellite, DMSP in Polar
  Orbit at 500 Mi.
• Continuous weather coverage for Military

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Russian Systems

• Very Powerful Force

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Russian Missile fleet
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(No Transcript)
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Russian Strategic Submarine Fleet
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Russian Naval IRBMs
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Russian Bomber and Fighters

• Russian Military aircraft inventory similar but
  less capable than those of the U.S.

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Russian ABM System

• Systems
• Leningrad ABM-1 / A-35 ABM-2 / S-225 ABM-3 /
  A-135
• Interceptor
• SH-?? Griffon V-1000 SH-04 Galosh A-350 SH-08
  Gazelle 53T6 SH-11 Gorgon 51T6 SH-?? S-225
  S-300P SA-10 GRUMBLES-300V SA-12
  GLADIATORS-300V SA-12 GIANTS-400 SA-20
  TriumfS-500
• Radars
• Very Advance Radar Types (operational??)

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Russian Space Assets

• Similar to those deployed by the U.S

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A Rogue State, N. Korea

• An emerging nuclear nation

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North Korean Ballistic Missiles
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North Korea as a Nuclear State

• We recently noted that the North is constructing
  a plant that could produce enough weapons-grade
  uranium for two or more nuclear weapons per year
  when fully operational -- which has occured
• The US has been concerned about North Korea's
  desire for nuclear weapons and has assessed since
  the early 1990s that the North has one or
  possibly two weapons plutonium it produced.
• Two tests (2008-09)

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National Strategy to Combat WMD (2002)

• Comprehensive strategy to counter all WMDs,
  Nuclear, Chemical, Bio in possession of Hostile
  States
• Part of Three pronged strategy (Homeland Def.,
  War on Terrorism, WMD)
• Worlds most destructive weapons in hands of most
  dangerous regimes and terrorists.
• Threat to our Forces, U.S. mainland and Friends

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National Strategy to Combat WMD (2002) contd

• Counter-proliferation by military and civilian
  agencies
• Intelligence, Interdiction, Deterrence,
  Mitigation (offense and defense)
• Nonproliferation Diplomacy, by enhanced new
  international agreements
• Aid in weapons reduction in Russia and former
  Soviet states (Plutonium and enriched Uranium,
  Chem., etc.)
• Response to disrupt an attack (Iraq ??)
• Military response and Consequence Management
• Improved Intelligence and R and D
• Better understanding of threat and secondary
  cooperation among proliferating states

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A Case for U.S as a Terrorist State(Noam
Chompsky)

• Assumption Terrorism is the use of violence to
  obtain political ends through intimidation, fear,
  etc.
• Case that U.S. will remain in Afghanistan until
  they deliver the terrorists makes U.S. a
  terrorist state.
• To the extent that we impose our will in
  Anti-terrorism against likes of Bin Laden
  (terrorist) we are practicing terrorism. (Who
  did 9/11?)
• U.S. arms support to Turkey which put down a
  Kurdish revolt in the mid-nineties.
• U.S. is considered a terrorist for supporting
  Turkey, which disenfranchised the Kurds (U.S.
  kept Iraq and Turkey from totally exterminating
  the Kurds??)
• War on Terrorism is only an excuse to get control
  of mid-east oil and a further excuse for
  repression at home( Assumes that U.S. and allies
  are basically repressive states)

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A case for Israel as a Terrorist State

• Terrorism is primarily a war on the civilian
  populace
• Israel could be considered a terrorist state
  because it targets quasi-military terrorists and
  civilian suicide bombers
• U.S. position Israel has the right to defend
  itself.

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Fuel/Air Explosive