Structural determinants and consequences of recent demographic phenomena in Poland

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Structural determinants and consequences of
recent demographic phenomena in Poland

• Agnieszka Fihel
• Department of Economic Sciences,
• Centre of Migration Research
• University of Warsaw

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1. Problems
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Decrease in number of births, 1946-2007
Source Central Statistical Office of Poland
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Decrease in Total Fertility Rate, Poland
1970-2006
Source Central Statistical Office of Poland
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Decrease in marriage rates, 1960-2007
Number of marriages in Poland per 1,000
inhabitants
Source Eurostat
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Why first marriages are so important in Poland?
Age fertility rates by marital status, 2004
Source Central Statistical Office of Poland
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Numerous outflow from Poland, number of
emigrants in thous.
Source Central Statistical Office of Poland,
2008.
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Population loss due to the outflow

• In post-accession period
• 2.8 of the resident population left
• 3.3 at age 15
• 4.0 at age 15-59
• 8.8 at age 20-24
• 9.3 at age 25-29

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Population loss due to the outflow

• Out of persons aged 25-29 living in
• the cities 100 thous. inhabitants in
  Warminsko-Mazurskie (North-East) ? 24.4 left
• the cities 100 thous. inhabitants in Podlaskie
  (East) ? 21.5 left
• the villages in Swietokrzyskie region (Central) ?
  20 left
• Out of persons aged 20-24 living in
• the villages in Podkarpackie region (South-East)
  ? 21.1 left

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2. Structural determinants of low fertility
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1. Baby boom and its echo
For women aged 30-34
Source Fihel, Okólski (2008), Bilans
demograficzny Polski w roku 2003, Warszawa
Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego
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1. Baby boom and its echo
For women aged 20-24
Source Fihel, Okólski (2008), Bilans
demograficzny Polski w roku 2003, Warszawa
Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego
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2. Delayed first births
Mean age of a woman at first birth, 1988-2005
Source Eurostat
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2. Delayed first births
Fertility rates by age (per 1,000 women), 1990
and 2006
Source Central Statistical Office of Poland,
2008.
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2. Delayed first marriages
Median age of a woman at first marriage, 1988-2006
Source Central Statistical Office of Poland,
2008.
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3. Consequences and responses
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ConsequencesReal and forecasted number of women
at age 30-34 (red line, left scale) 1975-2030,
real number of births 1975-2006 (blue line,
right scale) from women at age 30-34
Source Fihel, Okólski (2008), Bilans
demograficzny Polski w roku 2003, Warszawa
Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego
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Responses

• The recent decrease in fertility resulted from 1.
  decrease in number of potential mothers 2.
  change of preferences concerning the model of a
  family (delay of setting up a family)
• This negative tendency was amplified by economic
  transition (decrease in income levels,
  uncertainty at the labour market, need for
  education and competition ? difficulties in
  reconciliation of work and family)
• From states point of view, demographic cycles
  are detrimental to numerous organization and
  regulating duties (in education system, labour
  market, welfare and health services). Regardless
  of its aims, family policy should alleviate
  fluctuations in the population phenomena.
• A state cannot stimulate fertility in a direct
  way. However, a state can improve general
  conditions favourable for decisions about
  children by supporting employment of parents,
  especially employment of young mothers,
  developing child care services and, in general,
  creating family-friendly institutions.