EPA ORD Climate Change Research Program

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EPA ORD Climate Change Research Program

• Peter A Beedlow
• US Environmental Protection Agency
• Office of Research and Development
• Corvallis, Oregon
• at
• Oregon Climate Change Research Institute
• Scenarios Workshop
• 28 October 2009
• Portland, Oregon

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ORD Climate Change Program

• Provide the scientific basis and support to
  inform EPAs decisions regarding Climate Change.
• To increase the resilience of the Agencys
  programs to protect human health and the
  environment in the face of global climate change.
• A national program projects span the country in
  geographic scope but focus on specific places
• Strong stakeholder orientation
• EPA Program Offices, EPA Regions
• via our EPA partner offices to state and local
• Emphasis on capacity building by providing
  improved methodologies and decision support tools
• Take a vulnerability-based rather than
  predict-then-act approach

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ORDs Global Change Research ProgramWell-Defined
Mission
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Program Goals

• USGCRP Provide timely and useful assessments and
  tools to support resource management decisions in
  particular places.
• Air Quality Evaluate mitigation and adaptation
  policies that protect both air quality and global
  climate.
• Water Quality Protect water resources and
  aquatic ecosystems by assessing and adapting to
  global change.
• GHG Mitigation Assess environmental implications
  of mitigation technologies--including new energy
  production technologies, bio- based fuels, energy
  efficiency options and greenhouse gas
  sequestration both geological and biological.

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Vulnerability vs. Prediction

• Climate (and land use) change are highly
  uncertain there will not be accurate,
  local-scale, multi-decadal forecasts any time
  soon
• How to manage for this uncertainty?
• by looking across a broad range of plausible
  futures
• these reveal greatest vulnerabilities and policy
  trade-offs
• scenario-based approaches support
  decision-making that is robust across high risk
  futures
• Bottom-up approach to assessment that begins with
  established set of management goals and decisions
  to be made

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Mitigation or Climate Impacts Analysis
Integrated Environmental Impacts Assessment
local planning
economic activity
mitigation options
population growth
technology changes
Screening level tools to estimate climate
impacts (long and short-lived climate forcers)
Waste management, Landuse changes, etc.
Water demand, waste water, emissions/runoff, etc.
Water Quality Impacts
Air Quality Impacts
Terrestrial Ecosystem Impacts
Watershed and Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts
10/28/2009
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Climate Modeling Tools for Integrated Management
of Climate and Air Quality
Key scenarios
Emission Land Use Scenarios Policy options for
greenhouse gases (GHGs) air pollutants,
including radiatively active O3 and aerosols
(e.g., black carbon, sulfate) that influence
climate
Global Climate Model (GCM) 3D state-of-science
GCM Includes GHGs, O3, and aerosols
Integrated GHGs, O3, aerosols ? ? Climate
(Temperature, precipitation, etc.) 2 2.5
horizontal scale
Screening tools for scenario selection
Regional Meteorology Model (WRF Weather Research
Forecasting Model)
MAGICC (simple global climate model GHGs only)
GHGs ? ?Global Avg Temperature? (Note used by
OAP/OAR)
Regional Meteorology-Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ)
Adjoint GEOS-Chem (global chemistry)
O3, Black Carbon, Sulfate ? ?Radiative Forcing?
Downscaled to regional scale (3636 km2) climate
Adjoint CMAQ
Criteria Pollutants ? ?Air Quality?
Applications Human Health, Air Quality, Water
Resources, Ecosystem Impacts
10/28/2009
(Note Adjoint of model captures the sensitivity
of select predictions to changes in key inputs.)
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North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program (NARCCAP) http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
Downscaled climate simulations for the U.S. and
Canada from participating international modeling
teams running multiple GCMs and RCMs High
spatial (50 km) and temporal (3 hr)
resolution Future (2040-2070) and present
(1970-2000)
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Hydrologic Modeling20 U.S. Watersheds
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Hydrologic Landscape Regions
Climate
Aquifer Permeability
Terrain
Water Seasonality
Soil Permeability
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More about my favorite subject (me)

• Climate research since 1990
• Mostly computer modeling
• My mission use climate models to understand
  societal impacts of climate change, and help
  people make better decisions.

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