Title: Perspectivas del mercado mundial de agroalimentos Buenos Aires, Argentina OECD Gregoire Tallard
1Perspectivas del mercado mundial de agroalimentos
Buenos Aires, ArgentinaOECDGregoire Tallard
2The OECD provides
-
- Economic analysis with a policy focus
- Information on countries experience
- A forum for policy discussion and coordination
3A global outreach
OECD Member Countries
Countries/Economies Engaged in Working
Relationships with the OECD
4OECD Work on Food and Agriculture
-
- Providing economic and policy information and
advice that supports government efforts to
improve the domestic and international
performance of their policies
http//www.oecd.org/agr/
5Current market situation
- Record harvests 2004/05 in grains, oilseeds
resulted in price reductions - Lower sugar stocks despite larger 2004/05
harvests lead to higher prices - Bad weather in major exporting regions pushed up
dairy prices - Animal diseases continue to disrupt meat trade
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
6Agricultural World Market Context The Evolving
Economic Environment
Issues
Issues
- Changing consumer demand
- Growing civil society voice
- Changing market structures
- Increasing globalisation
- Shifting competition focus
- Growing role of standards
Outlook
Outlook
Assumptions
Assumptions
Situation
Situation
7Main assumptions- macroeconomic -
- Rapid global expansion slowed by oil prices in
2004 - Sustained, broad-based growth in the medium to
longer term - US dollar to remain strong relative to most Latin
American currencies - Inflation to remain relatively low
- Slowing population growth
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
8Main assumptions- unchanged policies -
- Provisions of US 2002 FSRI Act to continue
- EU 2003 CAP reform and EBA
- Enlarged EU of 25 countries
- URAA commitments to continue
- No new WTO agreement
- No new WTO accessions
- Existing regional agreements (NAFTA, MERCOSUR)
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
9OECD-FAO Outlook 2005-14Main trends
- Increasing competition in world markets
- Population, income growth stimulate consumption
and imports in developing countries - and South-South trade
- Renewed export subsidy use in EU (weak USD)
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
10OECD-FAO Outlook 2005-14Main trends
- Meat, sugar, cotton, oilseeds from South America
- Continued productivity growth in agriculture
- Downward pressure continues on real commodity
prices - Changes in food chain affect trade
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
11Production growth in developing countries
outpaces OECD
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
12Consumption growth in developing countries
outpaces OECD
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
13Brazil and Argentina become leading oilseed
exporters1996 vs. 2005 vs. 2014
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
14OECD countries continue to dominate coarse grain
exports 1996 vs. 2005 vs. 2014
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
15Growth in coarse grain imports concentrated
outside OECD 1996 vs. 2005 vs. 2014
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
16Growing Competition in Meat and Grains Net Trade
Markets
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
17Market trends and developments- world prices -
Rice prices to increase more significantly than
wheat and maize
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
18Market trends and developments- world prices -
Nominal oilseed prices increase, but real prices
flat or declining
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
19Market trends and developments- world prices -
Meat prices to decline from their relatively high
2004 levels
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
20Market trends and developments- world prices -
Dairy prices remain stable after dropping from
their 2004 peaks
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
21World prices remain low in real terms
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
22Some issues and uncertainties (1)
- Trade affected by changing diets
- Share of cereal imports declines as imports of
higher-value products increase - Increased importance of non-OECD exporters
- South-south trade flows dominate in rice,
vegetable oil, sugar
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
23Some issues and uncertainties (2)
- Numbers that are likely to be wrong
Issues
- CEREALS
- Chinas imports
- How much will they allow?
- OILSEEDS
- Chinas demand
- How much is enough?
Outlook
Assumptions
- MEAT
- BSE
- related import bans affects beef trade
Situation
24Chinas grain imports???
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
25Chinas oilseed needs???
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
26How will BSE affect trade in Canada and USA ????
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
27RisksWhat is not in the numbers
- Biofuels
- Embedded in the outlook but independent of oil
price or of policy incentives - Accession beyond EU 25
- Bulgaria and Romania
- Macroeconomic factors yields
- Trend growth rate and normal weather are never
observed
Issues
Outlook
Assumptions
Situation
28What are we doing
- We do not produce predictions
- We do projections by bringing together experts
knowledge of Member countries to develop a
consensual baseline