BAK OXFORD INTERNATIONAL International Industry Outlook Meeting Electronics

1
BAK OXFORD INTERNATIONALInternational Industry
Outlook Meeting Electronics computers A
view from Germany

• Ulrich Scheinost
• Mai 25, 2004

2
Key figures of Germany
Germany ZVEI 1,400 member companies
(Representation 90 of total industry) 2002
2003 change share of total
industry Employees1), 000
841.9 819.0 - 2.7 13.9 Turnover,
bln 154.9 154.3 -0.4 13.5 Exports,
bln 110.8 112.9 1.9 17.1 Imports,
bln 101.0 102.1 1.1 19.2 Gross fixed capital
formation, bln 6.8 6.7 -
2.7 13.4 Investment for R D, bln
8.1 8.1 0.0 18.2
1) Value end of period
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
3
German Production by Sectors
2003
Automation 22.8
Other 21.2
Lighting engineering 2.9
Motor vehicle equipment 5.2
Consumer Electronics 2.3
Energy engineering 6.2
Electrical Appliances 7.0
Electro- medical 4.6
Electronic Components 9.9
Telecommunications 11.0
Data systems 6.9
121 Euro bln
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
4
Share of Industry Services on Total Turnoverin
per cent
Turnover excluding services 77.2
Turnover of sevices 22.8
Source ZVEI-Economic trends and statistics
5
World Market of Electrical and Electronics
Products 2002 - by Regions in per cent
Real average annual increase until 2007 World
6 USA 6 India 7 China 10 Other
SEA 7 Japan 3 Russia 7 Germany 4
Other EU 5
1.9 Euro tln
Source National Statistical Offices/
ZVEI-Economic trends and statistics
6
World Production of Electrical and Electronics
Products 2002 by Regions in per cent
1.9 Euro tln
Source National Statistical Offices/
ZVEI-Economic trends and statistics
7
World Foreign Trade of Electrical and Electronics
Products 2002 by Regions in per cent
ROW 9.7
ROW 14.3
1.4 Euro tln
1.4 Euro tln
Exports
Imports
Source National Statistical Offices/
ZVEI-Economic trends and statistics
8
Share on World Exports by Countries
Share in
Share in
USA
JP
DE
CN
GB
FR
IT
Source National Statistical Offices/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
9
Foreign Trade of Electrical and Eletronics
Products in the Triade 2002 in billions Euros
EU (Germany) Production 451(121) bln Exports
160(111) bln Imports 204(101) bln Market
495(111) bln
6 (2)
43 (12)
32 (9)
25 (9)
Japan Production 250 bln Exports 130
bln Imports 75 bln Market 195 bln
USA Production 510 bln Exports 183
bln Imports 267 bln Market 594 bln
32
13
) Intra-EU trade excluded
Source National Statistical Offices/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
10
Market Development of Selected Regionsin
billions Euros
USA 594 349
EU 457 307
China 209 36
Japan 183 195
India 12 27
Russia 14 18
Portugal 3 6
Source National Statistical Offices/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
11
Market per Capita in Euros
USA 2,077 1,327
Japan 1,460 1,528
EU 1,181 803
Portugal 350 635
Russia 95 126
China 30 160
India 12 25
Source National Statistical Offices/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
12
World Market of Electrical and Electronics
Products in billions Euros
1970
1960
1980
1990
2000
2002
2005
Source National Statistical Offices/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
13
World Market 1995 und 2002
1.9 Euro tln
1.1 Euro tln
2002
1995
Source National Statistical Offices/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
14
E. and E. Industry Direct Investments and
Exports
Value of Exports 1990 100
Value of Direct Investments 1990 100
Source Statistisches Bundesamt, Bundesbank/
ZVEI-Economic trends and statistics
15

Business Cycle in German E. and E. Industry
ZVEI-Economic trends and statistics
16
Business Cycle - Turnover and Employment
Change
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
17
Capacity Utilisation und Production (2000100)
Left Scale Practical capacity utilisation in
theoretical capacity utilisation
Right Scale Production change
Capacity utalisation
Production
Source Statistisches Bundesamt,
ifo-Institut/ZVEI-Economic trends and statistics
18
Employees and Shortworkers
Number of Persons
Shortworkers
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
19
Workers and Employees
Number of Persons
Workers
Employees
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
20
Development of Prices for Electrical and
Electronics Products
Producer Prices Index 2000 100
Import Prices Index 2000 100
Producer Prices
Import Prices
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
21
Germany - Exports by Destinations Regions
Change
Shares
Share on German Electrical and Electronics
Exports preliminary
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
22
Germany - Imports by Delivery Regions
Change
Shares
Share on German Electrical and Electronics
Imports preliminary
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
23
Business Cycle - New Orders
Index 2000 100
Foreign Customers March 12.5
Domestic Customers March 10.7
Domestic Customers
Foreign Customers
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
24
New Orders 2002, 2003 and January March 2004 by
Product Category
Change
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
25
Germany Forecast 2004 and 2005 by Product
Sectors
Change
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
26
USA Shipments of Electrical and Electronics
Industry (NAICS 334 335) -
in mln US- (Three Month Moving Average)
Source Department of Commerce / ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
27
Japan - Production of Electrical and Electronics
Industry
Index (2000100) (Three Month Moving Average),
seasonal adjusted
Source METI / ZVEI-Economic trends and
statistics
28
Japan Production of ICs
Index (2000100) (Three Month Moving Average),
saisonal adjusted
Source METI / ZVEI-Economic trends and
statistics
29
Western Europe Production of Electrical and
Electronics Industry 2003 and 2004
Shares
Change
) 2002
Source ORGALIME / ZVEI-Economic trends and
statistics
30
Western Europe Employment in the Electrical and
Electronics Industry 2003 and 2004
Shares
Change
) 2002
Source ORGALIME / ZVEI-Economic trends and
statistics
31
German Position Direkt Exports to Countries
Market billions Euros
209
36
221
344
183
195
14
18
349
594
DE 17.4
DE 13.8
DE 15.1
DE 6.2
DE 2.2
DE 1.5
DE 0.6
DE 1.0
DE 1.1
DE 1.4
Source National Statistical Offices /
ZVEI-Economic trends and statistics
32
Position on US-Market Imports by Delivery
Countries
594 Euro bln
Source National Statistical Offices /
ZVEI-Economic trends and statistics
33
German Market by Sectors
2003
Automation 16.9
Other 27.1
Motor vehicle equipment 5.1
Energy engineering 5.8
Lighting engineering 3.8
Electro- medical 2.8
Consumer Electronics 5.8
Telecommunications 9.6
Electrical Appliances 5.9
Electronic Components 10.5
Data systems 16.7
110 Euro bln
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
34
US Market by Sectors
2002
Automation 10.3
Other 18.9
Motor vehicle equipment 2.1
Energy engineering 3.4
Electro- medical 2.7
Lighting engineering 2.9
Consumer Electronics 6.7
Telecommunications 19.4
Electrical Appliances 4.2
Electronic Components 13.1
Data systems 16.3
594 Euro bln
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics
35
Japanese Market by Sectors
2002
Other 6.9
Automation 8.0
Lighting engineering 2.6
Motor vehicle equipment 3.1
Consumer Electronics 7.9
Energy engineering 4.9
Electro- medical 1.2
Electrical Appliances 7.4
Telecommunications 9.0
Data systems 16.7
Electronic Components 31.1
195 Euro bln
Source Statistisches Bundesamt/ ZVEI-Economic
trends and statistics