COMBINE Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection M'

1
COMBINE Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth
System for Better Climate Prediction and
ProjectionM. A. Giorgetta, Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

• Call FP7-ENV-2008-1, ENV.2008.1.1.4.1
• Funding scheme Collaborative project
• Partners 22
• Duration 48 months (plan 01.05.2009
  30.04.2013)
• EC sci. officer Philippe Tulkens

2
Partners in COMBINE, and their involvement in
COSMOS
3
Selected key questions in climate research

• Do internal modes of variability exist in the
  climate system that allow skillful climate
  prediction on decadal time scales?
• What is the nature of these modes?
• Initialization methods and data?
• In which regions does predictability exist?
• For which time scales is a prediction skillful?
  (5, 10, 20 years?)
• What is the role of different processes and
  related feedbacks for climate sensitivity and
  climate change on the centennial time scale for
  different scenarios (RCPs) until 2100 and longer?
  
• Carbon and nitrogen cycles (and methane)
• Clouds, aerosols, and chemistry
• Stratospheric dynamics and strat. trop. coupling
• Cryosphere sea ice and ice shields
• How to develop new mitigation scenarios?F(
  impacts( climate change( RCP scenarios, feedbacks
  ) )

4
The building blocks of the project
CMIP5/RCPs
5
Example Exploring CMIP5 expts in ENSEMBLES

• Method proposed for the future CMIP5 experiments,
  i.e. experiments for the 5th IPCC assessment of
  climate change (Hibbard et al., 2007)

Impacts
Story lines
Policies
(Mitigation) Scenario
Surface temperature
Concentrations
Emissions
2B 1 2A
Carbon cycle - climate model
6
Summary

• The COMBINE project wants to make some
  interesting science with respect to
• The role of different processes for feedbacks
  that regulate climate change ? better
  understanding of the Earth system
• Predictability on the decadal time scale related
  to the internal variability of the climate system
  and initialization techniques
• Impacts in sectors and regions for RCP scenarios
• Iterative improvement of mitigation scenarios.
• Contribute to IPCC AR5

7

• Thank you