Ang Nuklear ay MASAMA, at ang BNPP ay MAPANGANIB

1
Ang Nuklear ay MASAMA, at ang BNPP ay
MAPANGANIB
Kelvin S. Rodolfo
Adjunct Professor, Natl
Inst. of Geological Sciences, U.P. Professor
Emeritus, University of Illinois at Chicago
DOST Balik Scientist
2

• 8 points
• Nuclear weapons and nuclear power are inseparable
  twins.
• Uranium is not a local fuel, and its use would
  place us at the mercy of foreign producers.
• Uranium is a finite and shrinking resource that
  is increasingly competed for as reactors
  proliferate globally.
• Uranium is not as carbon free as the nuclear
  lobby says, making 1/3rd as much CO2 per kilowatt
  as natural gas.
• Nuclear wastes remain toxic for hundreds of
  thousands of years.
• No country has yet solved the problem of
  permanent storage.
• Building a new nuclear reactor or retrofitting
  the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant is very expensive
  and susceptible to graft and corruption.
• Bataan and the entire Philippines are too
  tectonically and volcanically active for safe
  siting of a reactor and its wastes.

3
From decommissioned nuclear weapons
http//www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid2
5304
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Other
Nuclear fusion
Nuclear fission
Fossil fuels
Conservation
Geothermal, wind, hydro, biomass
Solar
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Ang International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at
ang World Health Organization (WHO) ay parehong
ahensiya ng United Nations. Noong 1959 ang IAEA
ay ipinagbawal sa WHO ang pagaral ng mga
problemang kalusugan galing sa paggamit ng
nuklear ng militar at pang enerhiya, pati sa
pagbigay ng babala kung may panganib. Mulang
1986, nooong panahon ng napalaking disgrasyang
nuklear sa Chernobyl, Ukraine, ang WHO ay hindi
inaral nito. Kasi, kung lilitaw ang katunayan,
maging napakalaking problema ng nuclear industry
sa buong mundo.
7
Ang uranium ay nasa mga Continent lamang.
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8
2
7
5
5
5
4
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Walang Uranium sa Pilipinas!
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Projected Demand for Uranium by Worlds Nuclear
Plants (International Atomic Energy Agency, May
2001)
9
138 June 10, 2007
26/lb between March 2003 and May 2005
http//www.daguilar.com.au/images/UraniumPricechar
t_000.JPG
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Nuclear fuel cycle

• enrichment

• fabrication

• Exploration, mining and milling

• Nuclear reactors

• conversion

• storage

• reprocessing

• Final disposal

• vitrification

From slide by Meg Honrado, 2006
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Low-level uranium ores
Typical concentrations in rock ores 0.1
http//www.unitednuclear.com/low.htm
12
uranium pit mine at Rabbit Lake, Saskatchewan,
Canada
http//www.saskschools.ca/gregory/sask/mining/upi
tmine.jpg
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Sa katunayan, ang nuclear energy ay gumagawa ng
maraming CO2 din. Ang Uranium ay galing sa
bato. Napakaunti ang laman ng pangkaraniwang
Uranium ore 0.1 U. Ang BNPP ay gagamit ng 100
toneladang Uranium kada taon -- laman ng 100,000
ton na bato. Kaya lang, kalahati lang ang
makuha ng milling Kailangan imina ng 200,000 ton
bato, gilingin sa mill, i-refine, gawing fuel
rod.
15
Bawat kilowatt-hour na nangaling sa plantang
nuklear ay gumawa ng 1/3 kadami sa nanggaling sa
pagsunog ng natural gas. Ang pinakayaman na mga
mina ay mabilis nauubos dahil sa pagdami ng mga
plantang nuklear. Lalaki ang CO2 galing sa
nuklear kasama sa pagbaba ang laman ng mga
natitirang ore bodies. Magkapanahon na ang CO2
galing sa Uranium ay aabot sa nanggaling sa
pagsunog ng fossil fuel. J.W.S van Leeuwen and
P. Smith, 2004, Nuclear Power The Energy
Balance. http//beheer.opvit.rug.nl/deenen/Nuclea
r_sustainability-rev3.doc
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The last 50,000 years of Humanity
Nuclear wastes will still be toxic at least
100,000 years in the future
17
Example After 10,000 years, Plutonium 239 from
one ton of BNPP reactor fuel must be diluted with
one million cubic meters of water to be safe to
drink. After 100,000 years, it still must be
mixed with 100,000 cubic meters.
http//www.ccnr.org/usgs.html
Data are normalized for one metric ton of
light-water reactor fuel.
18
Plutonium 239 half life is 24,100 years
Half gone
Plutonium 240 half life 6,560 years
Half now decayed second half life begins
After 9,000 years, the faster 240 decay changes
the reactor-waste Pu 239/240 ratio, doubling it
to weapons grade.
19
Virtually every democratic nation that has
embarked on a programme for the disposal of
high-level nuclear waste has run into similar
trouble, and few have found a way forward. Bitter
fights with concerned citizens have derailed
plans in Germany, Canada and the United Kingdom.
Nature v 440 p 988 20 Apr 2006
20
Yucca Mountain despite years of research it is
still not clear how well this particular site
would meet the stringent regulations called for .
. . National Academies of Science recommends a
regulatory period of several hundred thousand
years, which could mean keeping the waste safe
all the way through the next two ice ages
Local people have never been more united in
their rejection of the plans. Yucca Mountain has
been studied as a possible site for nuclear-waste
disposal since 1978. A bevy of experiments in an
eight-kilometre tunnel built in the side of the
mountain have looked at how water, heat and stray
radioactive material might move through the rock.
The data are used to estimate exposure rates for
humans who might stumble across the site
centuries or millennia into the future. In
recent years, some of those experiments have
shown that waste could migrate to the water table
more quickly than expected. And studies of young
volcanoes around the mountain have raised
concerns about a breach occurring at the site
--Geoff Brumfiel, 2006, Forward planning, Nature
v 40 p 987-989.
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05 0401 Yucca Probe Focuses on Possibly Faked
Data     The Associated Press     Friday 01
April 2005 E-mails suggest efforts aimed at
clinching nuclear waste project.
http//www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7361346/     Washingto
n - E-mails by several government scientists on
the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump project
suggest workers were planning to fabricate
records and manipulate results to ensure outcomes
that would help the project move forward.     "I
don't have a clue when these programs were
installed. So I've made up the dates and names,"
wrote a US Geological Survey employee in one
e-mail released Friday by a congressional
committee investigating suspected document
falsification on the project.     "This is as
good as it's going to get. If they need more
proof, I will be happy to make up more stuff."
    In another message the same employee wrote
to a colleague "In the end I keep track of 2
sets of files, the ones that will keep QA happy
and the ones that were actually used." QA
apparently refers to "quality assurance."
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Seek Plan B for Nuclear Waste    
By Erica Werner The Associated Press March 25,
2005 http//www.silive.com/newsflash/washington/in
dex.ssf?/base/politics- Yucca Mountain, approved
by Congress in 2002, is planned as a repository
for 77,000 tons of defense waste and used reactor
fuel from commercial power plants. The material
is supposed to be buried for at least 10,000
years beneath the desert 90 miles northwest of
Las Vegas.     But the project has suffered
serious setbacks, including funding problems and
an appeals court decision last summer that's
forcing a rewrite of radiation exposure limits
for the site.     Some 55,000 tons of
commercial reactor fuel and 16,000 tons of
high-level defense waste are already waiting at
sites in 39 states. The government, which
originally promised nuclear utilities it would
begin accepting their spent fuel in 1998, is
facing billions of dollars in lawsuits for
failing to make good on that pledge.
April 2008 56,000 20,000 76,000. Yucca
storage already almost exceeded no new site
being developed.
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Interim Storage
Spent fuel stored in a spent fuel pool. Water
absorbs radiation and disperses heat from spent
fuel.
http//www.world-nuclear.org/index.htm
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Storing radioactive waste in surface facilities
such as spent-fuel ponds is expensive and risky.
Nature v 40 p
989, 20 April 2006.
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When SF Pool is full, highly radioactive fuel
assemblies are moved to large casks outside.
Weapons and explosives easily available in the US
could penetrate the casks, releasing much
radiation.
27
Spent nuclear fuel stored underwater and uncapped
at the Hanford site, Washingon State, USA.
28
History of Hanford Tank Waste Treatment
www.ecy.wa.gov/features/hanford/images/HPG/hanf2.j
pg
89 start construction
93 Terminated
First Plan
99 Plant start operating
95 Terminated
Second Plan New strategy
2005 Start vitrification
00 Terminated
Third Plan Privatization
2008 Full scale operation
05 Terminated
Fourth Plan under Bechtel
2011 Full scale operation
2018 operational
Latest plan
2006 200 million funding cuts halt construction
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
2015
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05 0328 Storage of Nuclear Spent Fuel
Criticized   By Shankar Vedantam  The Washington
Post  28 March 2005 http//www.washingtonpost.com
/wp-dyn/articles/A5408-2005Mar27.html    Science
academy study points to risk of attack.     A
classified report by nuclear experts assembled by
the National Academy of Sciences has challenged
the decision by federal regulators to allow
commercial nuclear facilities to store large
quantities of radioactive spent fuel in pools of
water. The report concluded that the government
does not fully understand the risks that a
terrorist attack could pose to the pools and
ought to expedite the removal of the fuel to dry
storage casks that are more resilient to attack.
The Bush administration has long defended the
safety of the pools, and the nuclear industry has
warned that moving large amounts of fuel to dry
storage would be unnecessary and very expensive.
30
US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Loss of
pool water could lead to spontaneous ignition of
the zirconium alloy cladding of the most recently
discharged spent fuel assemblies. The resulting
fire would spread to adjacent fuel assemblies and
propagate across the pool. It would be difficult
if not impossible to extinguish the fire once it
had started. Spraying water would make it worse
because of an exothermic reaction between steam
and zirconium. A fire in the spent fuel storage
pool would release huge volumes of radioactive
gases to the atmosphere, just as in the case of
fire in the reactor core, including a large
proportion of the radioactive cesium-137, which
is water-soluble and extremely toxic in minute
amounts.
31
Loss of pool water could happen in various ways,
such as the failure of pumps or valves, piping
failures, an ineffective heat sink, a local loss
of power, and malevolent acts. According to the
 NRC Report, a fire in the spent fuel pool at a
reactor like Vermont Yankee in Pennsylvania, USA,
which stores 488 metric tonnes of spent fuel,
would cause 25,000 fatalities over a distance of
500 miles if evacuation were 95 percent
effective. But that evacuation rate would be
almost impossible to achieve.
Earthquakes? Volcanoes?
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Pressurized water reactor (PWR)
http//www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/students.h
tml
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http//www.progress-energy.com/aboutenergy/powerin
gthefuture_carolinas/spentfuel.asp
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Govt mulls opening Bataan nuclear power
plant--energy chief By TJ Burgonio Philippine
Daily InquirerJune 07, 2008 MANILA, Philippines
-- The government is seriously studying the
option of opening the mothballed Bataan Nuclear
Power Plant to bolster the country's energy
supply, Energy Secretary Angelo Reyes said
Saturday. Reyes said that a team from the
International Atomic Energy Agency that inspected
the power plant in Bataan months ago has reported
that this could be rehabilitated in at least five
years at a cost of 800 million.
OOPS! Is Sec. Reyes being seriously misinformed,
misquoted, misrepresented or misunderstood?
36
IAEA Advises Philippines on Next Steps for
"Mothballed" NPP Staff Report
24 June 12 July 2008
"In the case of Bataan, the plant was completed
over 20 years ago. Our mission visited the plant
to gauge the current state of the plant, but our
suggestion to the Philippines was simply on what
steps they need to take and what needs to be
considered to complete their own assessment,"
explained Akira Omoto, Director of the IAEAs
Division of Nuclear Power and leader of the
mission to the Philippines. "The government has
to assess what the new licensing requirements
should be, how to modernize the two-decades old
technology to current standards, and how to
confirm that all aspects of the plant will
function properly and safely.
It is not the IAEAs role to state whether the
plant is usable or not, or how much it will cost
to rehabilitate," said Omoto.
www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2008/bataannpp.html
37
July 3, 2008 Hon. Congressman Mark Cojuangco
5th District of Pangasinanfiled House Bill 4631
of the 14th Congress, Mandating the immediate
re-commissioning and commercial operation of the
Bataan Nuclear Power Plant. BNPP is situated on
Napot point, near the east coast of Subic Bay.
The Explanatory Note to the Bill misquotes our
work as certifying the safety of the site Top
geologists have evaluated Bataan and, with the
exception of Mt. Natib which is a dormant volcano
whose last eruption was estimated to have been
between 11.3 to 18 thousand years ago (Cabato et
al. 2005) and which is ten kilometers (10 km)
from the BNPP, could find no anomalies in
locating the plant there.
BNPP is not 10 kilometers away from Natib, it is
on Natib, which is the entire northern half of
the Bataan peninsula.
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Calderas
Bataan
39
Cabato, M. E. J. A., Rodolfo, K. S., and
Siringan, F. P., 2005, History of sedimentary
infilling and faulting in Subic Bay, Philippines
revealed in high-resolution seismic reflection
profiles Jour. Asian Earth Science 25 849-858.
. . . A breach in the caldera of Mt Natib is the
most likely source of a presumed pyroclastic
deposit in the eastern bay that is associated
with sediments about 11.318 ka, indicating that
a Natib eruption occurred much more recently than
previously documented for this volcano.
11,300 to 18,000 years aqo
40
Mt. Pinatubo
Mt. Natib
Mt. Mariveles
41
Seismic reflection
42
The faulting interval about 2,000 years. The
last faulting episode about 3,000 years ago.
43
12 January 1977, Nuclear Technologist III Elmer
C. Hernandez and Senior Nuclear Technologist
Gabriel Santos, Jr. Report on the evaluation of
the geological and seismological studies made on
the Philippine Nuclear Power Plant I Site.
1. The proposed site . . . is very near the
Manila Trench Luzon Trough tectonic
structures. 2. The proposed site is literally
bracketed by significant and very strong (high
magnitude) historical earthquakeswithin a 100
kilometer radius. In factone occurred (1970)
within 1-2 km of the proposed site itself in
Napot Point. 3. The probability of an epicenter
of an earthquake occurring at the site is
unacceptably very high. Covering a span of 74
years, 49 significant earthquakes occurred in the
above area, one of which one occurred within 1-2
kilometers of the proposed site itself. . .
44
Hernandez - Santos, Jr. Report (cont) 4.
Known significant and major earthquakes with
magnitudes greater than 8 were apparently
overlooked and not considered in the computation
of the shutdown earthquake design basis . . .
5. Earth satellite data suggest the presence
of a lineament in the site itself. Ground
magnetometer data appear to substantiate the
existence of a probable fault at the proposed
plant location.
45
Hernandez-Santos January 12, 1977 report
conclusion The above review has revealed the
high risk potential for the protection of health
and safety of the public if the proposed site is
accepted. High probability earth motions
associated with earthquakes due to the Manila
Trench West Luzon Trough displacements and
presence of a probable fault in the plant
location itself may lend to structural failures
causing the release of radioactive materials from
the nuclear power plant or may cause extensive
damage to the plant.
46
Prof. Ernesto Sonido, UP-Diliman Department of
Geology and Geography, 25 January 1979 memorandum
submitted to PAEC Observations on a field
inspection of the trenches constructed by NPC to
answer PAEC Question No. 2 entitled Confirming
the absence of shore faults south of Napot Point,
Morong, Bataan. NPC had cut trenches through a
postulated fault and reported no evidence of
faulting in them without considering the
difficulty of detecting faults in thick
overburden and easily healable rocks exposed in
the trenches. Numerous mistakes by NPC,
including a 90 error in the given direction of a
trench much field information already destroyed
or obscured by ongoing construction.
47
Dr. Sonido and Mr. John Palmer, groundwater
consultant of contractor firm Ebasco, agreed on
site that the postulated fault is a fault zone
with a width equal to the width of a river
south of Napot Point? and that the existing
river is along the fault... Numerous seepages
along fractures in otherwise impermeable rocks,
and variable depths of a tuff horizon in more
than 30 boreholes at the plant site suggest
that the area had been tectonically active.
48
USGS National Earthquake Information Center
Earthquakes in Natib vicinity, 1973-2008
1
4
Napot Point
49
Earthquakes near BNPP 1981-2004

• , Date Ms Depth (km)
• 24/06/91 4.6 53
• 22/07/81 5.3 69
• 14/07/04 4.3 97
• 05/08/02 4.9 100
• 06/08/98 3.9 150
• 06/09/02 4.4 33

5
6
1
2
Napot Point
4
3
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Lubao lineament
Mt Natib
?
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Pinatubos Pre- and Post-Eruption Topography
Base Jones and Newhall, 1996
Old summit x1745 masl
Caldera rim
x 1485 New summit
Caldera area 5.4 km2
Old summit point now 920 meters above sea
level. Lost elevation
1745-920 825 m
Volume lost 2.1 3.3 cubic kilometers
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Pyroclastic flow Dense, flowing cloud of very
hot gas mixed with explosion debris
100 kilometers per hour, 500 degrees C
Caldera collapse commonly releases enormous
pyroclastic flows
53
Pyroclastic flows on Mayon Volcano, 1984
54
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant Seven
units lined up along the coast.
Waste-heat dump
55
http//www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2009/kashiwaza
ki290109.html
56
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant of Tokyo
Electric Power Cp (TEPCO)
Most productive nuclear generating station in the
world. 1989, Unit 1 opened, producing 4.9
Terawatt hours. 1996, All seven units on line,
produced 45.242 TW-h. 1999, Peak production year,
60.505 TW-h. 2007, MW 6.6 July Chuetsu
earthquake 19 km offshore from plant, the
strongest to ever affect a nuclear plant. Shaken
beyond design basis, KKNPP was shutdown for an
extended for inspection. May 2008, TEPCO
decision greater earthquake-proofing needed
before operation can resume. February 2009The
entire plant is still shut down for exhaustive
inspections and seismic upgrades.
57
Earlier Events May 2000, Unit 6 had to be shut
down when increased concentrations of Iodine were
detected in the coolant loop. 9 September
2002-27 January 2003, all reactors were shut
after deliberately falsified data were
discovered. Units  1, 2, and 3 generated
no electricity during the entire 2003 fiscal
year. 2003 Production 19.869 TWH. 12 June 2004,
the vacuum in the condenser in Unit 1 began to
decrease. Operators reduced power to stabilize
condenser pressure and ran it that way for some
time. 4 February 2005, Unit 1 manually shut down
due to leakage of steam in the lower floor of the
turbine room. 3 July 2005, Unit 5 reactor,
condenser vacuum decreased, and tripped the
turbine to protect it. 26 May 2006, Cracking in
the hafnium control blades. 12 July 2006, worker
exposed to radiation over the legal limit.
58
Solid lines faults recognized earlier.
Dotted lines New faults found by Nakada et al.
after 2007 quake.
The first ever radiation released into the ocean
by an earthquake. 400 drums containing low-level
nuclear waste stored at the plant knocked over by
aftershocks, 40 losing their lids. Traces of
radioactive Cobalt 60 and chromium 51 released
into the atmosphere.
Epicenter Mw 6.6 16 July 07 quake
19 kilometers
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Energy Production of the
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant
2002 Falsified data
2007 Chuetsu earthquake
60
Marami pong salamat sa inyong lahat. Mabuhay ang
Bataan!