North American Carbon Program update

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North American Carbon Program update

• Ken Davis and Tony King
• Co-chairs, NACP Science Steering Group
• CCSSG meeting, 4-5 June, 2008

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Outline

• NACP progress vs. NACP Plan, SIS.
• Science update
• Next steps

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• NACP progress
• vs.
• NACP Plan, Science Implementation Strategy
  documents

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NACP Goals

1. Develop quantitative scientific knowledge, robust
   observations, and models to determine the
   emissions and uptake of CO2, CH4, and CO, the
   changes in carbon stocks, and the factors
   regulating these processes for North America and
   adjacent ocean basins. (en route - CO2)
2. Develop the scientific basis to implement full
   carbon accounting on regional and continental
   scales. (en route - CO2)
3. Support long-term quantitative measurements of
   sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, and
   develop forecasts for future trends.

NACP Plan, 2002
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NACP Questions

1. What is the carbon balance of North America and
   adjacent oceans? What are the geographic
   patterns of fluxes of CO2, CH4, and CO? How is
   the balance changing over time? (Diagnosis)
   (en route - CO2)
2. What processes control the sources and sinks of
   CO2, CH4, and CO, and how do the controls change
   with time? (Attribution) (en route - CO2)
3. Are there potential surprises (could sources
   increase or sinks disappear)? (Prediction)
4. How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon
   sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to
   support decision makers? (Decision support)

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Five-Year Deliverables from NACP Plan

• Measurements of sources and sinks for CO2, CH4,
  and CO for North America and adjacent ocean
  basins at scales from continental to local, with
  seasonal resolution. (imminent? - CO2)
• Attribution of sources and sinks to contributing
  mechanisms. (in progress)
• Documentation of North Americas contribution to
  the Northern Hemisphere carbon budget.
  (imminent? - CO2)
• Optimized sampling networks (both ground-based an
  remote) to determine past, current, and future
  sources and sinks. (in progress)
• Data assimilation models to compute carbon
  balances. (preliminary tools in hand - CO2)
• First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR)
  for North America. (in hand)

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NACP Integration Strategy
Strong progress Future work

• Process studies and manipulative experiments
  inform improved models
• Systematic observations of land, ocean, and
  atmosphere used to evaluate models
• Innovative model-data fusion techniques produce
  optimal estimates of time mean and spatial and
  temporal variations in fluxes and stocks
• Improved models used to predict future
  variations, and tested against ongoing diagnostic
  analyses
• Predictive models and continuing analyses used to
  enhance decision support.
• Decision support needs feed back to influence the
  research plan.

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Operational Phase of the NACP

The NACP Plan called for an operational phase of
NACP in which the observational and analysis
infrastructure would be available, as a legacy
to produce periodic, reliable estimates of net
sources and sinks for CO2, CO, and CH4 and of
changes in carbon stocks. (not there yet)
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• Science update

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Scientific progress Overview

• Pre-NACP results
• Synthesized by SOCCR, 2007
• Examples of recent publications, products
• Peters et al, 2007 / Carbon Tracker
• Potter et al, 2007
• Vulcan
• Interim syntheses
• Effort to bring together and assess progress to
  date (such as examples given above)
• Future work
• View beyond the interim syntheses

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• pre-NACP

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North America is currently a net source of CO2
(1264 Mt C yr-1), with 30 of fossil fuel
emissions (1856 ? 464 Mt C yr-1 in 2003) offset
by a net terrestrial sink of 592 ? 296 Mt C yr-1.
Courtesy Tony King, ORNL
SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2
State of the Carbon Cycle
Report
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Atmospheric-biomass inventory comparison
Results demonstrate rough agreement between
atmospheric and biomass inventories over the
coterminous United States.
Points represent various methods of performing
the atmospheric inverse estimate.
Pacala et al, 2001, Science.
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Atmospheric inventory results
Gurney et al, 2002, Nature
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• Examples of recent publications, products

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Operational Atmospheric Budgets
Courtesy Wouter Peters, NOAA ESRL
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NOAA Carbon Tracker
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Carbon tracker results
Annual NEP (gC m-2 yr-1) for 2000-2005
(left). Summer NEP for 2002, 2004
(above). Peters et al, 2007, PNAS
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Bottom-up continental carbon flux estimate
Potter et al, 2007

• CASA and MODIS synthesis
• Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) for the
  coterminous U.S., 2001-2004
• Interannual variability in fluxes correlated with
  climate patterns
• Comparison to four AmeriFlux towers to evaluate
  flux diagnostic

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Bottom-up flux estimate example Potter et
al., 2007
Figure 8. NEP maps
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Project VULCAN Emissions Estimates(AREA Sources)
natlog of tonnes C/day January 3, 2002
Country-level consumption Distrib. By ?
Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ
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Project VULCAN Emissions Estimates(POINT Sources)
Tonnes C/day/facility
Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ
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Project VULCAN Emissions Estimates(ROAD Sources)
Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ
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• Interim syntheses Plans and progress

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Interim syntheses underway

• Regional/continental comparison
• Post, Jacobson
• Site-based model-data comparison
• Schaefer, Thornton, Davis
• Midcontinental intensive regional syntheses
• Ogle, Verma, Denning

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Overall goals

• Evaluate current ability to
• diagnose carbon fluxes at site, regional and
  continental scales using multiple methods.
• attribute magnitude and variability in fluxes to
  governing processes.

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General schedule

• Synthesis protocol drafted and distributed - Feb
  2008
• Data being sent to MAST-DC - May-June 2008
• Model results being sent to MAST-DC - May-June
  2008
• Initial analyses - June to Sept 2008
• Workshops - Oct 2008
• Papers drafted - Oct 2008 to Jan 2009
• Present results at NACP All-Scientist meeting -
  Feb 2009
• Submit papers for publication - March 2009

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Regional Model-Data Comparison

• An NACP Interim Synthesis Project
• Andrew Jacobson, Mac Post
• Coordinators

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Regional MDC Objectives

• Some specific hypotheses have been suggested by
  CASA and CarbonTracker analyses
• Interannual Variation
• What is the spatial pattern and magnitude of
  interannual variation in carbon fluxes during
  2000-2005?
• What are the components of carbon fluxes and
  pools that contribute to this variation?
• 2002 Drought
• Do model results and observations show consistent
  spatial patterns in response to the 2002 drought?
  
• From measurements and ecosystem models, can we
  infer what processes were affected by the 2002
  drought?
• Identification of Sources/Sinks
• What are the magnitudes and spatial distribution
  of carbon sources and sinks, and their
  uncertainties during 2000-2005?

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Who Are the Participants?

• Modeling teams with relevant results
• NACP investigators
• Any other modeling team that is interested
• Data providers and analysis teams
• Involve data providers in all phases of project
• Include teams with measurements made at local
  sites and/or spatial regions at many scales

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Current Ecosystem Model Participants
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The North American Carbon Program Interim
Synthesis Project
Andy Jacobson, W. Mac Post, and Bob
Cook inversion results from
Transcom IAV David Baker and Transcom
Modelers MPI Jena Christian Rödenbeck CarbonTra
cker NOAA Earth System Research Lab
CarbonTracker team Andy Jacobson, Wouter
Peters, John Miller, et al. LSCE
Bayesian Philippe Peylin Philippe Ciais
Frontier Research Center for Global Change Prabir
Patra LSCE Variational Frederic Chevallier
Philippe Peylin Rayner 2008 Peter Rayner Univ.
Michigan Global Geostatistical Sharon Gourdji,
Anna Michalak, Kim Mueller
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Motivation Inversions tend to find much more
interannual variability than bottom-up models.
Which should we trust? Plan Gather North
American fluxes from current generation of
inversions and bottom-up models. Identify areas
of agreement and disagreement. Preliminary
results from available inversions.
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NACP Site Model Data Comparison

• Quantify model data uncertainty
• Simulated vs. observed flux at 30 flux towers
• All modelers invited

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AmeriFlux Fluxnet-Canada Sites
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Midcontinental intensive interim syntheses

• Bottom-up model estimate syntheses - Ogle
• Flux tower comparison and synthesis - Verma
• Atmospheric inversion results - Denning
• Goal Interim evaluation of the MCI
  methodological test - can we obtain consistent
  top-down and bottom-up flux estimates for an
  intensively sampled region of North America?

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Net cumulative change in soil carbon from
1991-2000 caused by changes in tillage intensity
and crop rotations.
Net change 67.7 Tg C.
Estimates of soil carbon change at 30x30m
resolution using combination of remote sensing
and inventory products
Courtesy Tris West, ORNL
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• Future work
• A view beyond the interim syntheses

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N. American CO2 observations - 2004
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NACP Mid-Continent Intensive (2007)
Iowa tower is surrounded by a 2007-2008 mesonet
(light blue), and a growing continental
network. Sites are a mixture of platforms and
research groups.
Note the lack of sites in the Gulf region!
http//www.amerifluxco2.psu.edu/
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Regional atmospheric CO2 for high-resolution
inversions
Data from the ring of towers 2007. Note very
low mixing ratios, large variability
Figure courtesy Tasha Miles, PSU
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Regional atmospheric CO2 for high-resolution
inversions
Large variability across sites, the sense which
with the weather
Figure courtesy Tasha Miles, PSU
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Assimilation of flux measurements into
terrestrial carbon cycle models to create
bottom-up flux maps
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Modeled fluxes at tower sites
Evaluation
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Optimized model parameters (and pdfs)
Site-years analyzed WLEF
1997-2004 Harvard 1992-2003 Howland
1996-2003 UMBS 1999-2003 M. Monroe
1999-2003
TRIFFID model (used in Cox et al., 2000) Ricciuto
et al., in prep Optimized model can be used as a
prior for atmospheric inversion.
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Modeled fluxes at tower sites
Evaluation
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Atmospheric Inversion Framework
SiB-RAMS
Typically run with several nested grids covering
a continental scale. Ideally carbon flux model
(e.g. SiB) is optimized using flux data
assimilation, see prior slide.
meteorological fields
CO2 fields and fluxes
LPDM
run on any subdomain extracted from SiB-RAMS
influence functions
CO2 observations
inversion techniques
Combination of flux tower and atmospheric data
assimilation yields joint constraints on CO2 flux
estimates.
Bayesian
MLEF
Figure courtesy Marek Uliasz, Colorado State
corrected CO2 fluxes
corrected within each inversion cycle
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• Next steps

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NACP essential glue(what is making the NACP
whole more than a sum of its parts?)

• NACP Office - Peter Griffith and staff
• Modeling and Synthesis Thematic Data Center
  (MAST-DC) - Bob Cook and staff
• Leaders of the NACP Interim Synthesis activities
• NACP meeting planning committee

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NACP ongoing, upcoming events

• Interim syntheses underway
• Continental, regional and site-based studies
• Results to be presented at Feb09 meeting
• Participation open to all - see
  http//www.nacarbon.org
• Update of the NACP Science Implementation
  Strategy
• just underway, led by the NACP SSG.
• discussion due at Aug08 NACP SSG meeting
• Orbital Carbon Observatory launch, December 2008.
• Investigators meeting, 17-20 February, 2009, San
  Diego, CA.

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NACP challenges

• Move from diagnosis and attribution into
  prediction and decision support.
• Identify important gaps that remain in our
  ability to diagnose and attribute.
• Identify and maintain observational
  infrastructure for the operational phase of the
  NACP.
• Broaden research to encompass more fully the
  processes (disturbance, management) needed to
  predict at time scales relevant to decision
  support (decades).