Spaghetti Diagrams and Narrative Descriptions

1
Spaghetti Diagrams and Narrative Descriptions

• Presented by Chris Hagman
• June 19, 2008

2
Review of ATC Futures

• Multiple ways of reviewing ATCs bounding
  plausible futures
• Spaghetti diagrams
• Narrative descriptions
• Want to ensure that we have a robust mix of
  bounding futures

3
Spaghetti Diagrams

• Helps to
• Visualize the relationship between the drivers
• Ensure that the drivers are widely (and
  logically) spread across the futures

4
ATC Futures - 2013
SG
HR
Slow Growth
High Retirements
HE
High Environmental
WD
20 Wind
FI
RE
Fuel Invest. Limits
Robust Economy
Mid
FI
RE
SG
HE
WD
HR
FUTURES
DRIVERS
0.5
1.2
1.5
2.0
3.0
1.3
1.75
0.5
1.2
1.5
3.0
2.0
1.3
1.75
0.5
1.2
1.5
3.0
2.0
1.3
1.75
1.2
1.5
3.0
0.5
2.0
130 MW Coal Retire, NED
270 MW Coal Retire
270 MW Coal Retire, NED
No Retire, NED
8.0
20.0
10.0
50 Inside WI
45 Inside WI
5
ATC Futures - 2013
SG
HR
Slow Growth
High Retirements
HE
High Environmental
WD
20 Wind
FI
RE
Fuel Invest. Limits
Robust Economy
FI
DRIVERS
FUTURES
SG
WD
HR
RE
HE
-40
50
25
Mid
-20
-10
20
Mid
Availability Reduced by 10
Normal Availability
CO2 _at_ 25/Ton, 25 Higher Hg Cost
CO2 _at_ 44/Ton, 25 Higher Hg Cost
No CO2 Tax
Reg. Limitation
Reference
Environ.
20 Wind
6
ATC Futures - 2018
SG
HR
Slow Growth
High Retirements
HE
High Environmental
WD
20 Wind
FI
Mid
RE
Fuel Invest. Limits
Robust Economy
FI
RE
SG
HE
WD
FUTURES
DRIVERS
HR
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
3.0
1.3
1.75
0.5
0.8
1.5
3.0
2.0
1.3
1.75
0.5
1.1
1.5
3.0
2.0
1.3
1.75
1.1
1.5
3.0
0.5
2.0
440 MW Coal Retire, NED
880 MW Coal Retire, NED
No Retire, 600 MW Coal, NED
880 MW Coal Retire
10.0
25.0
15.0
20.0
50 Inside WI
25 Inside WI
35 Inside WI
7
ATC Futures - 2018
SG
HR
Slow Growth
High Retirements
HE
High Environmental
WD
20 Wind
FI
RE
Fuel Invest. Limits
Robust Economy
FI
DRIVERS
FUTURES
SG
WD
HR
RE
HE
-40
50
25
Mid
-20
-10
20
Mid
Availability Reduced by 10
Normal Availability
CO2 _at_ 25/Ton, 25 Higher Hg Cost
CO2 _at_ 44/Ton, 25 Higher Hg Cost
No CO2 Tax
Reg. Limitation
Reference
Environ.
20 Wind
8
ATC Futures - 2024
SG
HR
Slow Growth
High Retirements
HE
High Environmental
WD
20 Wind
FI
RE
Fuel Invest. Limits
Robust Economy
Mid
FI
RE
SG
WD
HR
FUTURES
DRIVERS
HE
0.5
1.5
2.0
3.0
1.0
1.3
1.75
0.5
1.5
0.8
3.0
2.0
1.3
1.75
0.5
1.5
3.0
2.0
1.1
1.3
1.75
1.5
3.0
0.5
2.0
1.1
880 MW Coal Retire
880 MW Coal Retire, NED
No Retire, 600 MW Coal, NED
440 MW Coal Retire, NED
10.0
25.0
15.0
20.0
50 Inside WI
25 Inside WI
35 Inside WI
9
ATC Futures - 2024
SG
HR
Slow Growth
High Retirements
HE
High Environmental
WD
20 Wind
FI
RE
Fuel Invest. Limits
Robust Economy
FI
DRIVERS
FUTURES
SG
WD
HR
RE
HE
-40
50
25
Mid
-20
-10
20
Mid
Availability Reduced by 10
Normal Availability
CO2 _at_ 25/Ton. 25 Higher Hg Cost
CO2 _at_ 44/Ton 25 Higher Hg Cost
No CO2 Tax
Reg. Limitation
Reference
Environ.
20 Wind
10
Narrative Descriptions

• Handout describes the futures and the logical
  linkage between the drivers in each future
• Would appreciate your review and any comments you
  might have on the descriptions

11
General Question

• How much does adding pollution control equipment
  to coal-fired generators typically reduce plant
  output?

12
Questions?