Importance of the atmospheric boundary layer (1)

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Importance of the atmospheric boundary layer (1)
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The mission of the atmospheric sciences is to
understand and predict weather, climate, and
related disasters
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Weather-related Disasters Tropical
Cyclones(Hurricanes, Typhoons, Cyclones)
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Weather-related Disasters Tropical
Cyclones(Hurricanes, Typhoons, Cyclones)
Global distribution of the paths of major
tropical cyclones during the last 150 years. On
average, 80 per year around the world. U.S.
Fatalities normal year 21, Katrina 1836
U.S. Property loss normal
year 5400 million, Katrina 84000 million
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Weather-related Disasters Tornadoes
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Weather-related Disasters Tornadoes

U.S. Annual mean fatalities 56, annual
mean loss 777 million
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Weather-related Disasters Winter Storms
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Weather-related Disasters Winter Storms

U.S. Annual mean fatalities 57,
annual mean loss 329 million
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Summary Weather-related Disasters in US
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Climate-related Disasters over the world Example
1 El Nino
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Disastrous effects of 1982-1983 El
Nino 1.Australia-Drought and devastating brush
fires 2.Indonesia, Philippines-Crops fail,
starvation follows 3.India, Sri
Lanka-Drought,fresh water shortages 4.Tahiti-6
tropical cyclones 5.South America-Fish industry
devastated - decrease in nutrients off Peru-
fewer fish (anchovy) 6.Across the Pacific-Coral
reefs die 7.Colorado River basin-Flooding, mud
slides 8.Gulf states-Downpours cause death,
property damage 9.Peru, Ecuador-Floods,
landslides 10.Southern Africa-Drought, disease,
malnutrition
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Climate-related Disasters over the world Example
2 Global Warming
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Global warming is a critical issue we are facing
right now
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The modern climatology (meteorology) was born in
the 1940s (a very young science!), but has been
growing very fast!
Carl-Gustaf Rossby (1898-1957) Generally
considered as the father of modern meteorology.
Founder of the Chicago School of Meteorology.
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Observing the atmosphere Surface weather
stations
1875 (100)
1975 (gt1700)
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Observing the atmosphere
Upper-air stations
1970 (gt1000)
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Observing the atmosphere Weather Radar
First weather radar (NOAA NSSL)
Current NEXRAD Doppler radar (NOAA NWS)
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Observing the atmosphere Shipborne radar
From Mapes and Lin (2005)
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Observing the atmosphere Aircraft
NOAA P3
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Observing the atmosphere Satellite

TIROS-1 (1960) Worlds first
weather satellite
NASAs Earth Observation System A-Train (2007)
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Climate Modeling on Worlds Fastest Supercomputers
Japans Earth Simulator (Worlds 1 in 2004, 20
now)
OSCs new IBM machine Worlds top 50 now
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Worlds Major Global Climate Models
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The current status of weather and climate
predictions

• Weather prediction Generally good within one
  week, not good beyond 10 days. The skill depends
  on season and location.
• Tropical cyclone (hurricane, typhoon) prediction
  good in track, but bad in intensity
• Climate prediction Seasonal prediction
  generally good within 6 months, but not good
  beyond. Skill depends on season.
• Climate projection All models project global
  warming in the 21st century, but with a 3-fold
  difference in magnitude.

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Summary

• The mission of meteorology is to understand and
  predict weather- and climate-related disasters
  (e.g. tornados, hurricanes, El Nino and global
  warming).
• The modern climatology (meteorology) was born in
  the 1940s (a very young science!), but has been
  growing very fast! Now we have a global
  observational network with many satellites,
  ships, radars and surface stations, as well as
  very comprehensive prediction models running on
  the worlds largest computers.
• The current status of weather and climate
  predictions (1) weather prediction good to 10
  days, (2) tropical cyclone prediction good in
  track but not in intensity, (3) climate
  prediction good to two seasons, (4) climate
  change projections have a 3-fold difference in
  magnitude.