A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200. On the way out the door, the decision maker considers taking an umbrella. With the umbrella on hand, the suit will be protected in the event of rain. Without the umbrella, the suit - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200. On the way out the door, the decision maker considers taking an umbrella. With the umbrella on hand, the suit will be protected in the event of rain. Without the umbrella, the suit

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3. Before deciding, the decision maker considers listening to the weather forecast on the radio. ... into account the weather forecast. Take Umbrella? Weather ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200. On the way out the door, the decision maker considers taking an umbrella. With the umbrella on hand, the suit will be protected in the event of rain. Without the umbrella, the suit


1
A dapper young decision maker has just purchased
a new suit for 200. On the way out the door, the
decision maker considers taking an umbrella. With
the umbrella on hand, the suit will be protected
in the event of rain. Without the umbrella, the
suit will be ruined if it rains. On the other
hand, if it does not rain, carrying the umbrella
is an unnecessary inconvenience.
1. Draw an influence diagram of this situation 2.
Draw a decision tree of this situation 3. Before
deciding, the decision maker considers listening
to the weather forecast on the radio. Draw a
decision tree that takes into account the weather
forecast
2
Alternatives
Take
Dont Take
Outcomes
Rain
No Rain
Weather
Take Umbrella?
Protect Suit
Convenience
Overall Satisfaction
Choices Outcomes Consequences
Take Rain Suit Protected, Inconvenience
Take No Rain Suit Protected, Inconvenience
Dont Take Rain Suit Ruined, Convenience
Dont Take No Rain Suit Protected, Convenience
a. Influence Diagram
3
Take Umbrella
Suit Protected, Inconvenience
Rain
Suit Ruined, Convenience
Dont Take
Suit Protected, Convenience
No Rain
b. Decision Tree
4
Take Umbrella
Suit Protected, Inconvenience
Rain
Suit Ruined, Convenience
Will Rain
Dont Take
Suit Protected, Convenience
No Rain
Forecast
Take Umbrella
Suit Protected, Inconvenience
Will Not Rain
Rain
Suit Ruined, Convenience
Dont Take
Suit Protected, Convenience
No Rain
c. Decision Tree
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