Arrangements and procedures to assess security risks and national defence requirements

1
Arrangements and procedures to assess security
risks and national defence requirements

• COL Dr Catalin-Marius Tarnacop
• NATO Studies Centre

2
Agenda

• Underlying Principles
• Underlying Process
• Management of the process

3
What is Defence Policy?

• Defence Policy involves the political
  direction of a nations defence resources as a
  whole with a view to ensuring national security,
  protecting vital interests and furthering the
  international aims of the state
• the hand-maiden of a
• nations Foreign Policy

4
Why?

• Major Change
• Internal
• External
• Differing objectives
• Appropriate (Roles, Size, Shape, Capabilities,
  Equipment, Professionalism)
• Accountable (mechanisms, openness, transparency)
• Affordable (Public Expenditure, Efficiency)

5
Why?

• The aim of the National Defence Strategy is to
  make Armed Forces and their supporting structures
  modern, professional, accountable and efficient.
  They also have to be affordable within a medium
  term economic framework.

6
National Defence Strategy or Security Sector
Review ?

• Defence
• Issues

7
National Defence Strategy or Security Sector
Review ?
Security Sector Issues
Defence Issues
8
National Defence Strategy or Security Sector
Review ?
State Security Issues
Security Sector Issues
Defence Issues
9
National Defence Strategy or Security Sector
Review ?

• National Defence Strategy should start from
  Foreign Policy goals, but it is only a Defence
  Review
• The Security Sector Review is much broader
• more holistic approach for SSR, to include all
  security sector actors
• SSR addresses defence as just one element

10
Advantages of SSR vs NDS

• Establish optimum resources for Defence vs rest
  of public sector
• Identify best/alternative means of addressing
  threats
• Identify non-military tasks that require military
  response

11
Security Sector Reform Process
Develop ContextDescriptions
A
1
Identify security threats
2
B
Develop Security Policy
3
C
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4
D

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
E
7

Develop Legal Framework
F
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

G
Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
H
9
12
National security and defence hierarchy
NATIONAL SECURITY LEVEL
THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
1
GOVERNMENT PROGRAM (DEFENCE) - THE NATIONAL
DEFENSE STRATEGY -
2
MILITARY STRATEGIC LEVEL
STRATEGIES, PROGRAMS AND DEPARTAMENTAL PLANS THE
NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY
3
GUIDELINES OR STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTIVES,
SPECIFIC TO THE INSTITUTIONS WHICH ARE
TASK-ASSIGNED IN THE DEFENSE AREA OF EXPERTISE
4
DEFENSE PLANNING GUIDANCE
STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTIVE JOINT STRATEGIC
CAPABILITIES PLAN
5
6
JOINT DOCTRINE OF THE ARMED FORCES
ANNUAL PLANS CONCERNING THE MODERNIZATION AND THE
TRAINING OF FORCES BASED ON LONG TERM
PROCUREMENT STRATEGY
OPERATIONAL LEVEL
SERVICES DOCTRINES
REGULATIONS (FIELD MANUALS) DISPOSITIONS
GUIDELINES
TACTICAL LEVEL
13
Security Sector Reform Process Stage 1
Develop ContextDescriptions
1
Identify security threats
2
Develop Security Policy
3
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
7

Develop Legal Framework
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
9
14
Stage 1 Develop Context Descriptions

• What ?
• Rational views of the possible future covering
  best to worst (scenarios)
• How ? - Based upon establishing drivers
• Physical, Technological, Economic,
  Social/Cultural, Legal, Political, Military
• Who?
• Defence Policy staff
• Government Departments (Foreign Affairs, Finance,
  Interior, Other)
• Civil society (academics)
• Parliament

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The new Strategic Realities (1)

• A new Europe and Eurasia
• The rise of ethnic and religious tensions
• Weak states and ungoverned areas
• Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Drugs and organised crime
• Terrorism
• Environmental degradation

16
The new Strategic Realities (2)

• Population growth and demographic change
• Urbanisation and transnational migration flows
• Resource shortages, especially of water and oil
• Globalisation and growing disparities
• The pace of technological change
• The pace of social change

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The New Strategic Environment compared to Cold
War Era

• More interdependent
• More vulnerable due to increasing reliance on
  technology
• More uncertain due to increasing range of
  challenges threats
• More varied due to the nature of challenges
  threats
• More demanding due to complexity
• An environment with smaller scale, but more
  frequent use of force international issues, often
  asymmetrical operations

18
The New Strategic Environment (2)

• Complex, dynamic, having a lot of instability
  sources
• The threat of a major military conflict has
  diminished
• Risks
• Regional (tensions and conflicts that may extend)
• Asymmetric (terrorism, weapons mass destruction)
• Transnational (drug trafficking, organized crime,
  illegal immigration)
• Contingencies (placed in the area of uncertainty)

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Other factors

• National interests
• Values
• International Commitments and Responsibilities
• Security Priorities
• Support to the Civil Power
• Europe
• Outside Europe

20
Future worlds
21
Future worlds
22
Military drivers
Best state
Problem state
23
Security Sector Reform Process Stage 2
Develop ContextDescriptions
1
Identify security threats
2
Develop Security Policy
3
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
7

Develop Legal Framework
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
9
24
Stage 2 - Develop Threat Descriptions

• What ?
• Agreed understanding of security threats within
  chosen future worlds
• How ?
• Individual , then group view

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Risk analysis

• No set format, should include
• Political security risk analysis
• Political threat assessment
• Intelligence security briefs
• Military threat analysis
• Military estimate (Aim, Factors, Own course,
  Plan/Recommendation)
• Economic risk analysis
• Commercial risk analysis

26
Security Sector Reform Process Stage 3
Develop ContextDescriptions
1
Identify security threats
2
Develop Security Policy
3
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
7

Develop Legal Framework
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
9
27
Stage 3 - Establish Security Policy

• What?
• Statement of broad defence requirements of the
  State and role of the military and other
  instruments of State in addressing identified
  threats.
• How? Based upon
• Threats
• Previously agreed policies or obligations
  (including regional co-operation)
• Who? National Security Council
• Defence Policy staff
• Foreign Ministry
• Interior Ministry
• Finance Ministry
• Other Government Ministries
• Civil Society
• Parliament

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Stage 3 - Security Policy Components
Role of Defence
30
Stage 3 - Security Policy
Foreign Affairs
Finance
Internal Affairs
Presidents/ Prime Ministers Office
Defence
Intelligence
Education/ Health etc
Justice
31
Security Sector Reform Process Stage 4
Develop ContextDescriptions
1
Identify security threats
2
Develop Security Policy
3
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
7

Develop Legal Framework
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
9
32
Stage 4 - Develop Defence Policy

• What?
• Statement of defence role in meeting security
  priorities
• How?
• Based upon Security Policy
• Who?
• Defence Policy staff
• Civil Society
• Other Government Departments

33
National Defence Strategy Process
Develop ContextDescriptions
Develop military threat descriptions
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capability Force Options
Develop associated policies processes structures
34
Joint Strategic Planning System
Capability Planning
Requirements Planning
Operational Planning
Defence Policy Planning
Resource Planning
Effective linkage is essential
35
Security Sector Reform Process Stage 5
Develop ContextDescriptions
1
Identify security threats
2
Develop Security Policy
3
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
7

Develop Legal Framework
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
9
36
Stage 5 - Develop Defence Missions and Military
Tasks

• What ?
• Defence Missions associated Military Tasks
• How ?
• Based on Defence policy and planning assumptions
• Who ?
• Defence Policy staff
• Military Operational Staff
• Military Support Staff

37
Security Sector Reform Process Stage 6
Develop ContextDescriptions
1
Identify security threats
2
Develop Security Policy
3
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
7

Develop Legal Framework
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
9
38
Stage 6 - Develop Capability Force Options

• What?
• Options for Military Capability
• Command control intelligence surveillance
  maneuver (doctrine and training) mobility
  counter-mobility firepower protection
  logistics
• How?
• - Based upon components of missions and military
  tasks, planning assumptions, military doctrine
• Who?
• - Defence Policy staff Military Operational
  Staff Military Support Staff Civil Society ?

39
Security Sector Reform Process Stage 7
Develop ContextDescriptions
1
Identify security threats
2
Develop Security Policy
3
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
7

Develop Legal Framework
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
9
40
Stage 7 - Agreement of Options

• What ?
• Agreed Military Capability
• How ?
• Costed options assessed against national needs
• Who?
• Defence Minister
• Chief of Staff
• Finance Minister
• Cabinet/Prime Minister/President
• Civil Society?

41
Security Sector Reform Process Stage 8
Develop ContextDescriptions
1
Identify security threats
2
Develop Security Policy
3
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
77

Develop Legal Framework
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
9
42
Stage 8 - Develop associated policies, processes,
structures etc

• Personnel
• Procurement Logistics
• Finance
• Policy and planning
• Accountability
• Linkages to rest of government

43
Security Sector Reform Process Stage 9
Develop ContextDescriptions
1
Identify security threats
2
Develop Security Policy
3
6
5
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions Tasks
Develop Capabilities Force options
4

Develop Law Order Policy
Agreement of options
7

Develop Legal Framework
Develop associated Policies, etc
8

Develop Foreign policy

Amend social policies
Publication
9
44
Stage 9 - Publication

• Make publicly available
• Parliamentary debate

45
Timetable

• Will probably take longer than planned!
• Other countries experience14 months to 2 years

46
Management of the National Defence Strategy

• Institutional framework
• Top level involvement/support
• Clear aims and objectives
• Dedicated coordinating team
• Continuity of (key) participants
• Open and Inclusive process
• Plan and manage the project
• Realistic implementation plan

47
Implementation

• Long term
• Quick wins
• Build into normal planning processes
• Delegate responsibility to specific individuals
• Monitor progress, including oversight by
  Parliament
• Flexible

48
Questions ?
49
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50
Invenzia Generic Threats
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Invenzia - Generic Threats
T34
-
Environmental
T74
-
Civil Disaster

Major
T15
-
Border Insecurity
-
Stress/Resource Constraints

Event(s)
Regular military bodies (Raids
Severe Resource Scarcity
to Full
-
scale invasion)
T45
-
Political Instability
-
Ethnic competition through
arms rather than popular mandate
T65
-
Internal Security

Breakdown
H
T85
-
Economic Shocks Stress

Economic Collapse
T94
-
Social Polarisation

Severely Polarised
Impact
T13
-
Border Insecurity
-
Major
T33
-
Environmental
T54
-
Human Underdevelopment
illegal movements of
Stress/Resource Constraints


Underfed, Malnourished,
goods/people
Inadequate Resource Available
Subsistence, etc.
T23
-
Destabilising External
T73
-
Civil Disaster

Serious
Influences

Active hostility
Event(s)
(Major Impact)
T42
-
Political Instability
-
Tensions
T22
-
Destabilising External
T93
-
Social Polarisation

Fluid
M
Influences

Reasonable
Impact
T62
-
Internal Security
-
Tensions
T52
-
Human Underdevelopment
T61
-
Internal Security

Minimal
T32
-
Environmental

Fairly Literate Trained
Threat
Stress/Resource Constraints

Society
Sufficient Resource Available
T92
-
Social Polarisation

Good
T72
-
Civil Disaster

Localised
T41
-
Political Instability
-
Social Relations.
Problems
Stable
T82
-
Economic Shocks Stress

Medium Sustainable Growth
T11
-
Border Insecurity
-
Common
Transgression
L
M
H
Probability
L
52
Defence planning system
I. MISSION REQUIRE- MENTS
OPTIONS (ANALYSIS)
VIII. EQUIPMENT DESTRUCTION
JSCP
II. SELECTION OF CONCEPT
VII.CONDUCT AND SUPPORT
JSPS
I. DIRECTIONS
FRA
PO
ACQ
VI. PRODUCTION AND SERVICES
IMPLEMENTATION
ANALYSIS
SCENARIOS
IV. SUPPORT
MISSIONS
V. TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT

II. CONCEPT DEVELOP-MENT
III. OPERATIONALREQUIRMENTS
JOPES
DPG
PP
MIL STRAT
DP
IV. CONCEPT DEFINITION
PPBS
III OPERATIONAL AND STRATEGIC PLANS
CP
AB
DB
DEFENSE PLANNING COUNCIL
JSPS - Joint Strategic Planning System JSCP -
Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan MIL STRAT -
Military Strategy DP - Defense Programs.
PO - Programming objectives PP - Project
Programs PE - Program expenditures DB - Budget
draft AB - Approved budget.
PPBS - Planning, programming, budgeting and
evaluating system in the MOND FRA - Force and
resource assessment DPG - Defense Planning
Guidance.