Working abroad

1
Working abroad the patterns of migration flows
and remittances across countries

• Anne Harrison, Tolani Britton and Annika Swanson

2
Round Table on Sustainable Development

• Ministerial level meetings directed to finding
  means to implement goals agreed internationally
  to further sustainable development globally
• Focus on the impacts of OECD countries on
  countries in the rest of the world

3
Sustaining whose development?

• Presented to a meeting of the Round Table in
  November 2003
• Presented nine data sets
• Five use data concerning international flows
• Services
• FDI
• Debt
• Remittances

4
Migrants and remittances

• Part of the social aspect of sustainable
  development
• Highly topical, not fully understood, not always
  well represented
• Can an examination of the data help understanding
  and representation?
• Doha mode 4

5
Country coverage

• All 30 OECD countries
• 27 large non-OECD countries
• 85 of population, 97 of GDP
• Plus 17 regional other groups covering the
  remaining 160-170 countries

6
Goal

• Take IMF data on remittances and estimate the
  match between country of origin and destination
• Initially work with data for 2000 only
• Preliminary updates to 2003

7
First task pattern of migrants

• Have information on number of migrants in each
  country, no comprehensive information on number
  of nationals abroad and the countries where are
• Set about building a matrix of stock of migrants
  for the world for 2000

8
Problems

• Nationality, citizenship, place of birth
• Refugees
• Length of stay
• Worker or family member
• Links to home country
• Skill level
• Year data available

9
Results
Millions From OECD ROW Total
To OECD 22.2 16.2 34.1 24.9 56.3 41.1
ROW 2.5 1.8 77.9 57.0 80.4 58.8
Total 24.7 18.0 112.0 81.9 136.7 100.0
10
Nationals abroad (mn)

• Russia 10.2
• Mexico 7.9
• India 7.2
• Ukraine 4.7
• Philippines 4.1
• UK 3.4
• Bangladesh 3.3

• Italy 3.0
• Turkey 2.8
• Indonesia 2.4
• Nigeria 2.1
• Portugal 1.7
• Thailand 1.6
• Germany 1.5

11
Remittances

• Add workers remittances and compensation of
  employees
• Credits 41.8 60.7 102.5
• Debits 45.2 54.9 100.1
• Philippines
• Ignore migrants transfers

12
Conceptual problems

• Not all migrants send transfers
• Not all remittances come from migrants
• Some may be ex-migrants
• Some may be new relatives eg marriage
• Some may be non-relatives eg adopt a child
• Special problem of border workers

13
Data probelms

• Even OECD countries have poor data
• Often have only compensation of employees or
  workers remittances but not both - are they
  merged or is one missing
• Ambiguity about coverage of flows through
  informal channels

14
Remittances per migrant

• Estimate missing countries Nigeria, Qatar, UAE,
  Malaysia, Singapore, Canada
• Made estimtes for missing data - not for
  underrecording
• Annex table 6
• Outflow per migrant (col 4)broadly consistent
  across countries

15
Border workers

• Credits
• France 7.9
• Belgium/Lux 3.7
• Germany 3.4
• Italy 1.5
• Total 19.4

• Debits
• International orgs 6.5
• Switzerland 5.6
• Germany 4.2
• Belgium/Lux 2.9
• Italy 2.0
• Total 24.1

16
Simple minded model

• Assume average remittance sent by all migrants
  (only) in a given country
• No allowance for nationality, skill, family
  circumstance, length of time away
• Indian waiter in UK sends as much as Portuguese
  waiter
• Indian waiter in UK sends more than Indian waiter
  in Africa

17
Receipts per national abroad

• Annex table 6 col 6, col 9
• Again reasonably consistent across countries at
  similar levels of development and with IMF data

18
Geographical groupings
Africa 11.7 10.4
Asia 37.6 43.4
Europe 18.9 19.6
Latin America and Caribbean 19.3 16.2
North America 2.4 1.6
Oceania 0.8 0.3
Total 90.7 91.5
Border workers in Europe 19.4 21.4
Total 110.1 115.7
19
Impact on GDP

• Annex table 6 cols 7 and 10
• Largest impact
• Philippines 105.9
• Bangladesh 104.0
• For most countries, impact one or two percent
• Only very small countries have very high impacts

20
Perception

• Remittances come from OECD countries

21
Data -bn 2000
Int orgs 6.5 France 3.8
USA 26.8 Malaysia 3.8
Saudi Arabia 15.4 Belgium/Lux 3.3
Other western Asia 14.1 Japan 2.5
Germany 7.4 Italy 2.0
Switzerland 7.3 Spain 1.7
22
Perception

• Most remittances go to the third world

23
Data - bn 2000
India 9.2 Germany 3.4
France 7.9 Portugal 3.4
Mexico 7.6 Egypt 2.9
Philippines 6.2 USA 2.4
Turkey 4.6 Morocco 2.2
Spain 3.8 Bangladesh 2.0
Belgium/Lux 3.7
24
Results
Billions To OECD ROW Total
From OECD 38.9 35.1 29.3 26.4 68.2 61.4
ROW 0.7 0.6 42.0 37.9 42.7 38.5
Total 39.6 35.7 71.3 64.2 110.9 100.0
25
Update

• Flows to 2003
• Review migration matrix
• Main improvements to come from better data

26
Data needs

• Compensation employees and workers remittances
  problematic
• Regular commuters (border workers)
• Irregular working visitors (seasonal and casual
  workers from abroad)
• Long -term migrant workers

27
Data needs (cont)

• Seek bilateral data from key providers and
  recipients of flows
• Add estimates of informal flows
• Match inflows and outflows