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Creating a Shared Vision Model

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Title: Creating a Shared Vision Model


1
Creating a Shared Vision
Model
2
What is a Shared Vision Model?
  • A Shared Vision model is a collective view
    of a water resources system developed by managers
    and stakeholders. It is used to facilitate plan
    development, implementation and maintenance.

3
  • Wait a second!
  • Why discuss Shared Vision Models now?
  • Are Shared Vision Models part of the seven steps?
  • Shared Vision Models can enhance each stage
    of the planning process

4
Shared Vision Models Can
  • Establish the status quo
  • Highlight important problems
  • Communicate constraints
  • Focus planning objectives

5
Shared Vision Models Can
Assess the impacts of a plan
  • Identify promising strategies
  • Fine-tune targets

6
Shared Vision Models Can
  • Facilitate plan implementation
  • Perform environmental assessments
  • Brief decision makers
  • Inform the public

7
Shared Vision Models Can
Maintain plan effectiveness
  • Conduct Virtual Drought Exercises
  • Review strategic plans

8
Models In
Water Resources Planning
  • One of the earliest non-military applications of
    computers was to water resources
  • Harvard Water Program foresaw the major impacts
    of computers
  • Simulation and optimization models have been used
    to provide operational guidance, forecast
    future conditions, and facilitate
    planning for many years

9
Traditional Models
  • Traditional water resources models
  • Developed and used by analysts
  • Developed for the use of a single agency
  • Created with little outside input
  • Written in FORTRAN
  • Run on mainframe computers

10
Limitations of Traditional Models as
Planning Tools
  • Common model limitations as planning tools
  • Require extensive time to create
  • Require extensive training
  • Require extensive data that may be difficult to
    obtain

11
Common Model Limitations as
Planning Tools
  • Are viewed as black boxes by non-developers
  • Can not be customized to facilitate planning
    decisions
  • Can not be run interactively and lack
    transportability
  • Represent a single vision

12
Characteristics of
Today's Shared Vision Models
  • Object Oriented
    Flexible - Interactive - Transparent
  • Run on Multiple Platforms Transportable
  • Jointly Developed and Used
    Neutral - Accessible
  • And as a result Shared Vision models are Useful
    - Trusted - Endorsed

13
Comparison of Traditional and
Object-Oriented Simulation Environments
14
Perceived Advantages of Shared Vision
Models
  • Shared Vision Models
  • Improve analysis
  • Are more flexible
  • Communicate more effectively
  • Cost less to develop than traditional approaches

15
Modeling Philosophy
  • Shared Vision Models should
  • Be developed with wide support
  • Improve communication among managers and
    stakeholders
  • Disseminate information equally
  • Improve planning and management of water
    resources
  • Serve as a basis for effective negotiation

16
Overview of
Model Development Process
Define Modeling Objectives
17
Desired Characteristics of Model
Developer(s)
  • Collectively the model development team should
    possess
  • Respect and trust of stakeholders
  • Strong communication skills
  • Previous modeling experience
  • Strong technical skills
  • A broad-based understanding of the system

18
Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model
Development
  • Advisory
  • Participate in interviews
  • Share knowledge of the system
  • Shape modeling objectives
  • Critique prototypes

19
Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model
Development
  • Active Assessments
  • Independently test and use model
  • Participate in virtual drought exercises
  • Hands-On
  • Participate in model construction

20
Steps in Creating Shared
Vision Models
  • Step 1. Define modeling objectives
  • Step 2. Structure the model development process
  • Step 3. Conceptualize the system
  • Step 4. Construct model
  • Step 5. Evaluate and test the model
  • Step 6. Confirm stakeholder endorsement
  • Step 7. Enhance/modify model
  • Step 8. Establish guidance for ongoing model use

21
Step 1.
Define Modeling Objectives
  • Modeling objectives define what should be
    accomplished by the modeling effort.
  • To define modeling objectives we must ask
  • Who will use the model?
  • How will it be used?
  • As well as
  • Who will be impacted by the model?
  • What are the planning objectives?

22
Step 2. Structure the Model
Development Process
  • Involve managers and stakeholders
  • Identify constraints and potential obstacles
  • Identify tasks and establish a time line
  • Identify resource requirements
  • Assign roles and responsibilities

23
Step 3. Conceptualize the System
  • Interview managers and stakeholders and review
    previous studies
  • Delineate required components
  • Determine what is not required
  • Define appropriate level of system detail
  • Identify an appropriate time step
  • Identify performance measures that
    will be modeled

24
Step 4. Construct Model
  • Steps in Model Construction

Create Tables and Graphs
Create User Interface
25
Typical Components of a Shared
Vision Model
  • Planning objectives Hydrology
  • Reservoirs Ground water supplies
  • Demands Forecasts
  • Operating policies Constraints
  • Triggers Water rights priorities
  • Regulations policies Performance
    measures
  • Robust documentation Modeling
    assumptions

26
Step 5. Evaluate
and Test the Model
  • Developers must
  • Verify the model
  • Validate the model
  • Identify areas of uncertainty and sensitivity

27
Model Verification
  • Stakeholders, managers, and analysts must verify
    that
  • The model contains all critical components
  • Components are correctly related
  • System behavior

28
Model Validation
  • With the verified model, we must ensure that the
    model can mimic past system behavior
  • Average conditions
  • Extreme conditions
  • Appropriate metrics must be used to compare model
    output with historical data.

29
Sensitivity Analysis
  • During sensitivity analysis we determine
  • How changes in variables or assumptions impact
    system performance
  • Which input variables are most uncertain
  • This provides an understanding of
  • Which input variables most influence system
    performance
  • Where more reliable information is needed

30
Step 6. Confirm Stakeholder Endorsement
  • To obtain model endorsement, model developers
    must
  • Ensure that model content is understood
  • Convey assumptions
  • Demonstrate model validity
  • Illustrate models value in planning and decision
    making
  • Address concerns that are raised

31
Step 7. Enhance/Modify Model
  • Before making model enhancements
  • Identify requested changes
  • Identify why the change is needed
  • Prioritize requested modifications
  • Consider available resources
  • Document changes (who, why, when, how)

32
Step 8. Establish Guidance for
Ongoing Model Use
  • To ensure continued model usefulness managers and
    stakeholders must
  • Identify a caretaker for the model
  • Identify how the model will be maintained
  • Create training opportunities
  • Develop ground rules for model distribution and
    use

33
Summary
  • A Shared Vision model represents the collective
    view of water resource managers and stakeholders.
    It facilitates plan development, implementation
    and maintenance.
  • Shared Vision models have several desirable
    characteristics that enhance their usefulness as
    planning tools.
  • Model development teams must be carefully chosen.
  • Stakeholder input is essential to shared vision
    model development.
  • Guidelines for long-term model use, distribution,
    and maintenance should be established.

34
Exercise
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