Regional Demographic Shifts and their Implications for Hospice

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Regional Demographic Shifts and their
Implications for Hospice
Hospice of the Red River Valley Fargo, ND June
10, 2009

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center

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Presentation Objective
1. To present an overview of historical shifts in
population dynamics in region.
2. To discuss key drivers of future population
change.
3. To offer insight into what will likely happen
in the future given current trends.
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Population Change for MN, ND,SD, 1992-2020
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Population

• North Dakotas population peaked in 1930 at
  680,845.
• The July 1, 2008 population estimate for North
  Dakota totaled 641,481, an increase of 3,577
  persons from 2007.

Source U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
the Population Estimates Branch,
http//www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
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North Dakota
Cass County
4 similar counties
40 similar counties
McIntosh County
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Percent Change in Total Population Estimates for
North Dakota by County July 1, 2007 to July 1,
2008
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Key Population Trends
1. Population consolidation
2. Rapidly shifting age distribution
3. Shifts in household composition
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N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution,
1900-2020
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses.
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North Dakota City Size 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000.
Chart taken from the May 2002 Issue of the
Population Bulletin, published monthly by the
North Dakota State Data Center (Vol. 18, No. 5).
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MN, ND, and SD Residents who have Moved in Past
Year by Age, 2006
Total Movers by State
14.7
17.6
17.0
Universe Persons 1 year and older Source U.S.
Census Bureau, 2006 ACS, Table B07001.
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Source North Dakota State Data Center
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Contextual Themes
2. Shifting age distribution
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A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000(National data)
85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-4
9 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-
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Female
Male
Population (in millions)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, International Data
Base.
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A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020
85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-4
9 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-
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Female
Male
Population (in millions)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, International Data
Base.
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Baby Boomers enter system 1.825 million/yr or
5,000 a day (on average)
Baby Boomers enter age 85
Source Older Americans 2004
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2000Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2020Source North Dakota State Data Center,
North Dakota Population Projections 2005 to
2020, Sept. 2002
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The Elderly 85 plus
Persons Age 85 and Older as a Percentage of Total
Persons by State 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Change in North Dakotas Labor Force by Age 1970
to 2020
Note The change in labor force participation was
calculated for 2010, 2015, and 2020 by applying
the 2006 ACS labor force participation rates to
the population projections. Sources - U.S. Census
Bureau 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census 2006
ACS. North Dakota State Data Center North
Dakota Population Projections by Age and Gender
2010, 2015, 2020
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Contextual Themes
3. Shifting household distribution
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Households by Type
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Household Types
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Figure 1. Hispanic Population as a Percent of the
Total State Population in North Dakota and
Minnesota by County 2000
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Refugee Resettlement in North Dakota 2000 to 2006
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Legal Permanent Resident Flow

• Granted permanent resident status (green card)
• In 2006, nearly 1.3 million in U.S.
• 63 family-sponsored
• 13 employment-based
• 17.1 refugee
• In Minnesota 18,254 representing 162 different
  countries (47 are refugees)
• In North Dakota 649 representing 87 different
  countries (39 are refugees)

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Change in the Different Countries of Origin of
Refugee Population in Fargo/Moorhead, 1990-1998
Ranked 2 among metro areas in highest of recent
foreign born 1990-2000
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Change in the Number of Refugees Resettling in
North Dakota 2000-2006
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Legal Immigrants - North Dakota
Persons Obtaining Legal Permanent Resident Status
in North Dakota by Country of Birth During Fiscal
Year 2006
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Legal Immigrants - Minnesota
Persons Obtaining Legal Permanent Resident Status
in Minnesota by Country of Birth During Fiscal
Year 2006
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Legal Immigrants - Age
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Demographic Presentation 2009

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58108-6050
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.edu
• Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc