A Prospective New Agenda for LongTerm, ConflictSensitive Development: Moving from Anecdotes to an An

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A Prospective New Agenda for Long-Term,
Conflict-Sensitive Development Moving from
Anecdotes to an Analytical-Predictive Framework

• Marc J. Cohen
• Association for International Agriculture and
  Rural Development
• 42nd Annual Meeting
• Cultivating Peace Agriculture in a World of
  Conflict and Violence
• June 5-6, 20065

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Prevention Requires Understanding Causes

• Current thinking emphasizes
• Ethnic animosities
• Environmental Scarcities
• Resource Curse
• Diamonds
• Oil
• Geography

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A TALE OF TWO AFRICAN COUNTRIES

• Country 1
• Depends on diamond exports
• Landlocked
• Has many ethnic groups
• Has difficult environmental conditions
• Bought Soviet arms during the Cold War
• Country 2
• Diverse exports
• Good ports
• Ethnically homogenous
• Pro-Western during the Cold War

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A TALE OF TWO AFRICAN COUNTRIES, PART 2

• Country 1 Peaceful, prosperous, democratic
  Botswana
• Country 2 Strife-torn Somalia, which is ruled
  by competing armed groups
• Conclusion
• The policy contexts in which conflict-inducing
  factors play out matter greatly

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DOES SOWING AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT YIELD A
HARVEST OF PEACE?

• Yes, in Kenya
• Smallholder dairy farming
• Horticulture production for export
• Maize breeding
• New soil conservation practices
• Yes, in Mali
• Rapid growth in the cotton sector
• Yes, in Zambia
• Maize breeding
• New soil conservation practices

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DOES SOWING AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT YIELD A
HARVEST OF PEACE? Part 2

• BUT
• Somalia and pre-genocide Rwanda received
  considerable amounts of agricultural aid
• Again, socio-economic and policy contexts make
  all the difference