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Scenarios, policies and impacts for the linked transport and energy systems Results of the European

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Title: Scenarios, policies and impacts for the linked transport and energy systems Results of the European


1
Scenarios, policies and impacts for the linked
transport and energy systems Results of the
European TRIAS project
  • Wolfgang Schade and Nicki Helfrich, Fraunhofer
    ISI, Germany
  • Michael Krail, IWW University of Karlsruhe,
    Germany
  • Davide Fiorello and Francesca Fermi, TRT -
    Trasporti e Territorio, Italy
  • Burkhard Schade, IPTS European Commission, Spain

2
TRIAS model linkage for integrated assessment of
scenarios
POLES
Fossil fuel prices
Energy prices, Investments Trade in
primary energy sources, Subsidies, Carbon taxes
Transport energy demand, GDP development
BIOFUEL
Investments, Production, Biofuel price, Biofuel
share
Fuel demand
ASTRA
Large scale (Country results)
3
Development of a technology database for
production pathways of biofuels and hydrogen
4
Baseline scenario results
5
Overview on TRIAS Baseline Trends time horizon
2050
6
TRIAS transport demand baseline
Passenger transport demand
Freight transport demand
330
50
200
EU15
EU12
EU15
EU12
7
World energy demand by region
8
Transport fuel demand by type
9
Policy scenario results
10
List of policy scenarios
  • Subsidies scenario to foster biofuels for
    transport and excluding hydrogen (SUB-BIO)
  • Subsidies scenario to foster hydrogen for
    transport and excluding biofuels (SUB-H2)
  • Carbon tax and subsidies scenarios to foster
    biofuels for transport and excluding hydrogen
    (CT-BIO)
  • Carbon tax and subsidies scenario to foster
    hydrogen for transport and excluding biofuels
    (CT-H2)
  • Combined carbon tax and subsidies scenario to
    foster new technologies i.e. biofuels and H2
    (COMBI)
  • On top of COMBI scenario
  • First mover scenario for hydrogen use for
    transport on top of combined scenario (FIRST)
  • Mandatory biofuels quotas on top of combined
    scenario (QUOTA)
  • CO2 emission limits on top of combined scenario
    (CO2-LIMIT)

11
Impact on GDP compared to Baseline
12
Impact on average cost by car compared to Baseline
13
Summary of Scenario Results
Source TRIAS
14
Sensitivity results
15
Baseline structural change of the car fleet
  • continued shift to diesel
  • alternatives mainly CNG (short-term) and
    bioethanol (medium-term)

16
Sensitivity of vehicle fleet penetration rates
Medium-size gasoline car
17
Conclusions
  • With moderate scenarios in TRIAS new technologies
    (i.e. biofuels, hydrogen) will only slowly enter
    the market.
  • Continuous significant policy support and high
    oil prices will speed up market penetration of
    new technologies.
  • In general, the economic impact of policies
    supporting new technologies would be positive due
    to investment stimulus and reduced fossil fuel
    imports.
  • Sensitivity analysis reveals a wide range of
    potential future compositions of the car fleet,
    and thus energy demand structure.
  • Results should be reconsidered with higher oil
    prices and lower costs of electric vehicles due
    to recent technical progress of the battery
    technology.

18
Thank you for your attention!
Further information TRIAS website
http//www.isi.fhg.de/TRIAS This work is
continued in the iTREN-2030 project. iTREN-2030
website http//www.isi.fhg.de/projects/iTREN-2030
/
Institute for Economic Policy Research University
of Karlsruhe, Germany
IWW
Trasporti e Territorio Milan, Italy
TRT
IPTS
19
Optional
20
TRIAS demographic baseline ageing society
21
Development of oil supplier regions for EU
2020
2030
2040
2050
22
Linkage and iterations between ASTRA-POLES-BIOFUEL
  • 13 iterations to achieve stable baseline
  • On average 5 iterations to achieve stable
    scenarios

23
Elements of the scenario specification
  • Subsidies are either adapted to follow paths for
    introduction of new technologies of other
    projects or to receive expected results from the
    models e.g. in quota scenario the biofuels quotas
    have to be achieved
  • Carbon taxes increase from zero in 2010 to 30 /t
    CO2 in 2030 and afterwards remain constant.
  • All policies stimulate additional investment. The
    stronger the stimulus for investment the more
    positive is the longer-term impact on the
    economy. Depending on the policy additional
    investments may occur in
  • plants to produce biofuels,
  • plants and infrastructure to produce and
    distribute hydrogen,
  • RD and manufacturing plants for new type of
    vehicles (e.g. bioethanol, hydrogen) or
    improvements of existing technologies (e.g.
    efficiency of gasoline vehicles to cope with CO2
    emission limits).
  • All additional investments are counterfinanced
    somewhere in the economic system.
  • Counterfinancing of additional investments by
    carbon taxes or government subsidies (affecting
    government debt) leads only to minor cost
    increases and thus has limited dampening impacts.
  • Imports of fossil fuels can be reduced improving
    the trade balance of the European countries.
  • In first mover scenario additional exports of
    hydrogen vehicles stimulate the economy, as
    Europe becomes the technology leader and due to
    this competitive advantage increases its exports
    of such vehicles to other parts of the world.
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