An integrative framework for risk governance of natural hazards in Canada

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An integrative framework for risk governance of
natural hazards in Canada
Pathways
Pathways toward.

• Murray Journeay Sonia Talwar

Research and Practitioner Partnerships For Action
on Climate Change Developing Guidance for
Communities Richmond, BC March 6-7, 2008
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Dimensions of Societal Risk
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• Climate Change
• Global Temperature Rise
• Variation in Climate Patterns
• Variation in Extreme Events
• Global Sea Level Rise

Probability of Occurrence

• Natural Hazards
• Earthquake
• Tsunami
• Hurricanes
• Floods
• Landslides

Genetic Engineering
Nuclear Power
EM Radiation
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Expected loss to human and/or natural systems
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Integration of disaster risk reduction into
sustainable development policies planning
Development strengthening of institutions,
mechanisms and capacities to build resilience
Incorporation of risk reduction approaches into
emergency preparedness programs

• Ensure that Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is a
  national and local priority with a strong
  institutional basis for implementation through
  legislation and decentralization of
  responsibilities and resources

• Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks
  through indicators of DRR and vulnerability and
  enhance early warning

• Use knowledge, innovation and education to build
  a culture of safety and resilience at all levels

• Reduce underlying risk factors by integrating DRR
  with sustainable development, climate change
  adaptation and comprehensive land use planning

• Strengthen disaster preparedness capacity for
  effective response at all levels by adopting
  regional approach with a focus on risk reduction

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Scope of Risk Governance Framework

• Risk Assessment

• Risk Evaluation

Science
Society
Values
Knowledge
Risk
Decisions
Policy

• Risk Identification

• Risk Management

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Pathways Risk Governance Framework

• An operational framework comprising methods and
  tools for
• Risk Identification/Problem Framing
• Assessment of vulnerabilities and risks
  associated with impacts of natural hazards on
  existing and future settlement
• Characterization and evaluation of risk reduction
  strategies through formal decision analysis
• Policy research and implementation of risk
  management measures
• Based on principles of participatory planning and
  integrated assessment
• Addresses strategic objectives of the Hyogo
  Framework for Action, and the National Disaster
  Mitigation Strategy

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Pathways Risk Governance Framework
Motivating Question

• IF we know the extent, magnitude and likelihood
  of natural hazards and their potential for damage
  to human and natural systems (impacts),

• THEN how does society decide where is it safe,
  or not safe, for human settlement, and at what
  cost (e.g. trade-offs)?

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Pathways Risk Governance Framework

• Risk Assessment

• Risk Evaluation

• Risk Profiles Probability of loss exceedence
  over time
• Risk Reduction Scenarios mitigation strategies
  to reduce hazard impacts
• Cost-Benefit analysis expected return on
  mitigation investment
• Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis weighting
  ranking of indicators to determine risk tolerance

• Hazard Potential extent, magnitude probability
  of occurrence
• Land Use existing and future settlement
  patterns
• Vulnerability anticipated damage to physical and
  socio-economic assets
• Hazard Risk expected loss caused by hazard event
  scenario

• Risk Management

• Risk Identification

• Problem Framing perceptions of vulnerability
  risk
• Strategic Planning identify objectives and
  strategies for managing future growth
• Emergency Planning inventory of elements at Risk
  (existing future), and capacities for response
  recovery
• Decision Criteria performance indicators for
  risk reduction strategies

• Determine management strategy to address issues
  of complexity, uncertainty ambiguity
• Policy recommendations to make risk reduction
  strategies operational
• Decision making approval of risk reduction plan
  by local/regional jurisdictions
• Implementation monitoring

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Pathways Framework- Workflow
Understanding
Decision Making
IV) Risk Management
I) Risk Identification
II) Risk Assessment
III) Risk Evaluation Decision Analysis
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The Pathways Risk Governance Framework
Society
Science

• Risk Identification

• Problem Framing perceptions of vulnerability
  risk
• Comprehensive Planning identify objectives and
  strategies for managing future growth
• Emergency Planning inventory of elements at risk
  (existing future), and capacities for response
  recovery
• Decision Criteria performance indicators for
  risk reduction strategies

Policy
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I) Risk Identification

• Comprehensive Land Use Planning identify
  principles, objectives and strategies for
  managing future growth

• Visionary planning exercise (Smart Growth on the
  Ground)
• Community direction to 2030
• Lacked representation from natural hazards
• Direct partnership emerged for Nat. Haz. Risk
  uncovered through dialogue collaboration

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I) Risk Identification

• Problem Framing perceptions of vulnerability
  risk

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I) Risk Identification

• Emergency Planning inventory of elements at
  risk (existing future), and assessment of
  capacities for response recovery

Capacity
Susceptibility
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I) Risk Identification

• Decision Criteria value-based performance
  indicators for characterizing and evaluating risk
  reduction strategies

Value-Based Risk Choices
Equity
Resource Efficiency
Public Safety
Built Environment
Individuals
Losses Avoided
Critical Infrast.
Children
Return on Invstmt
Elderly
Critical Facilities
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The Pathways Risk Governance Framework

• Risk Assessment

• Hazard Potential extent, magnitude probability
  of occurrence
• Land Use existing and future settlement
  patterns
• Vulnerability anticipated damage to physical and
  socio-economic assets
• Hazard Risk expected loss caused by hazard event
  scenario

• Risk Identification

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II) Risk Assessment

• Land Use integrated landscape modeling of
  existing settlement patterns and scenario-based
  allocation of future growth demands

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II) Risk Assessment

• Hazard Potential qualitative and quantitative
  assessment of extent, magnitude probability of
  occurrence

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II) Risk Assessment

• Vulnerability Risk loss estimation modeling to
  determine anticipated damage to physical and
  socio-economic assets and associated loss of
  community wealth

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The Pathways Risk Governance Framework

• Risk Assessment

• Risk Evaluation

• Risk Profiling Probability of loss exceedance
  over time
• Cost-Benefit analysis expected return on
  mitigation investment
• Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis modeling of
  mitigation strategies (choices and consequences)
  to optimize and/or balance performance across
  decision criteria (values objectives)

• Risk Identification

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III) Risk Evaluation

• Risk Profiling modeling of multi-hazard risk
  scenarios to determine probability of loss
  exceedance over time and expected consequences to
  human and natural systems

Planning Horizon
Growth
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III) Risk Evaluation
Cost-Benefit analysis Portfolio modeling to
evaluate the financial performance (rate of
return) of proposed resource allocations to
mitigate the impacts of a natural hazard event
scenario
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III) Risk Evaluation

• Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis interactive
  modeling of mitigation strategies (choices and
  consequences) to optimize and/or balance
  performance across decision criteria (values
  objectives)

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III) Risk Evaluation

• Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis interactive
  modeling of mitigation strategies (choices and
  consequences) to explore trade-offs and balance
  performance across decision criteria (values
  objectives)

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The Pathways Risk Governance Framework

• Risk Assessment

• Risk Evaluation

• Risk Management

• Risk Identification

• Determine management strategy to address issues
  of complexity, uncertainty ambiguity
• Draft policy recommendations to make risk
  reduction strategies operational
• Decision making approval of risk reduction plan
  by local/regional jurisdictions
• Implementation monitoring

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IV) Risk Management

• Determine management strategy to address issues
  of complexity, uncertainty ambiguity

IRGC Ortwin Renn (2007)
Action
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IV) Risk Management

• Policy recommendations to make risk reduction
  strategies operational
• Decision making, implementation monitoring
  approval and implementation of risk reduction
  plan by local/regional jurisdictions

• Risk reduction plan
• Land Use Bylaw
• Operational requirements re development permits
• Structural mitigation strategies
• On-going evaluation of land use strategies
  against community vision

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Implementation Challenges

• Institutional capacities to apply and implement
  framework
• Shift from response recovery to prevention
  mitigation
• Balancing long-term strategic directions and
  short-term pressures
• Tensions between individual rights (i.e.
  property) and public safety (collective)

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Lessons Learned

• For effective risk governance we need
• To not only characterize measure risk but also
  use values and preferences to guide risk
  reduction and risk management decisions
• To consider risk dynamically - since what is at
  risk shifts with time, the ability to evaluate
  trade-offs in strategies is a key step towards
  managing risk.

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IRGC Framework for Risk Governance
Characterization Evaluation
Appraisal
Management
Pre-Assessment