Explaining%20North%20Korean%20Nuclear%20Crisis

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Explaining North Korean Nuclear Crisis

• Lecture Note for Pease Studies II
• October 24, 2007
• Sung Chull Kim
• Hiroshima Peace institute

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Preliminary questions

• What is the nature of North Korean problem, that
  is, the nuclear weapons development? And how is
  the process for a solution going on?
• How has the North Korean nuclear issue been
  intermingled with the abduction issue?

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North Korea in Northeast Asia
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North Korea Profile

• Population 22,697,553 (July 2004 est.)
• Population growth rate 0.98 (2004 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth total population 71.08
  years, male 68.38 years, female 73.92 years
  (2004 est.)
• Natural resources coal, lead, tungsten, zinc,
  graphite, magnesite, iron ore, copper, gold (no
  oil or natural gas)
• Land use arable land 20.76
• Food shortage around 2million tons per year

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Nature of North Korean nuclear crisis and nuclear
test

• On October 9, 2006, North Korea conducted nuclear
  test.
• The Six-Party Talks are going on to make North
  Korea to give up the nuclear weapons development
  project.
• - 6 countries North Korea, South Korea, the
  United States, China, Japan, Russia
• Why nuclear weapons?
• - Reflection of North Koreas perceived
  insecurity in the post-Cold War period
• (Both domestic and international)

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Background of the crisis (I) international level

• For North Korea, the U.S. has been the key to
  solve all the diplomatic problems.

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Background(I) international level (continue)US
sanctions on North Korea

• The U.S. domestic laws and regulations has denied
  since 1953
• (Trading with Enemy Act, Commercial Control List)
• (list of Terrorism-supporting countries)
• - any loans or credit facilities from
  international financial institutions such as the
  IMF and the World Bank
• - the status of beneficiary developing country
  under the U.S. Generalized System of Preference
• - approval for application to investment risk
  insurance programs in the Overseas Private
  Investment Corporation
• a grant from U.S. agricultural commodities to
  developing and least developed countries
• The U.S. influence over international financial
  flow
• - example financial sanction against the North
  Korean accounts in Banco Delta Asia in Macao

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Background(I) international level
(continue)Regime competition with South Korea

• Refer to the lecture in spring
• - division, 1945
• - Korean War, 1950-53
• - confrontation and competition after the war
• - recent development of inter-Korean relations,
  but fear of South Korean influence

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Background(II) domestic level

• Economic crisis erupted in junction with the
  collapse of socialism in Eastern Europe and the
  former Soviet Union.
• - shortage of (1) energy, (2) foreign currency,
  (3) food
• Death of Kim Il Sung in 1994

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Kim Il Sungs death and transfer of power to Kim
Jong-il in 1994
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Arduous March
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Transitions for survival
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Chronology of Nuclear Crises

• 1991 South-North Basic Agreement
• 1992 South-North Joint Declaration of the
  Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
• 1. no nuclear weapons
• 2. use of nuclear energy solely for peaceful
  purpose
• 3. no nuclear reprocessing, no uranium
  enrichment

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Chronology, continue

• 1992 IAEA inspects nuclear facility at Yongbyon
  and concludes there are inconsistencies between
  North Korea's declaration and inspection results
• 1993 IAEA request special inspection on the two
  unreported, suspect, facilities (waste storages)/
  North Koreas rejection
• 1993 North Koreas exit of NPT and declaration
  of state of semi-war (the 1st nuclear crisis)
• 1994 Former President Carter visits North Korea
  Kim Il Sung offers to freeze North Korea's
  nuclear program in return for high-level talks
  between the U.S. and North Korea.
• 1994 U.S. and North Korea conclude the Geneva
  Agreed Framework. (see next)

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(Agreed Framework, Oct. 1994)

• Freeze of nuclear facilities NKs freeze of
  graphite-moderated reactors and related
  facilities, being compensated by US arrangement
  of light-water reactor (LWR) power plants with a
  generating capacity of 2,000 MW(e) by 2003
• Dismantlement Dismantlement of the frozen
  facilities, when the LWR project is completed
• Normalization US and NK move toward full
  normalization of political and economic
  relations
• In 1995, Korean Peninsula Energy Development
  Organization (KEDO) was established for the
  construction of two light-water nuclear reactors
  in North Korea.

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Chronology, continue

• 2000 summit between South and North Koreas (Kim
  Dae-jung and Kim Jong Il), Joint Declaration
• 2002 summit between Japan and North Korea
  (Koizumi Junichiro and Kim Jong Il), Pyongyang
  Declaration
• 2002 North Korea allegedly confessed its
  nuclear project based on highly enriched uranium
  (HEU) to James Kelly, special envoy from the
  United States (the 2nd nuclear crisis)
• 2002 KEDO decides the stop of sending of heavy
  oil to North Korea.
• 2002 North Korea expels IAEA inspection teams.
• 2003 North Korea declares the exit from NPT.
• 2005 declaration of nuclear state status
• 2005 Joint Statement of the 4th Round of the
  Six-Party Talks (see next)
• 2005 dissolution of KEDO
• 2006 missile launches
• 2006 underground nuclear test
• 2007 shut down of nuclear facilities

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Quest for solution Six-Party Talks

• Participants North Korea, China, Russia, Japan,
  South Korea, US
• - Chinas active role for moderating especially
  the differences between North Korea and Japan
• Joint Statement of the 4th Six-Party talks 19th
  Sept. 2005
• - Verifiable denuclearization of the Korean
  peninsula, DPRKs abandoning of nuclear weapons
  and nuclear programs US of no intention of
  invasion, 1992 Joint Declaration of the
  Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as the
  benchmark, future discussion about provision of
  light water reactor
• - abiding the Charter of UN and recognition of
  norms of international relations, normalization
  of DPRK-US, NK-Japan relations
• - economic assistance to NK, energy aid by the
  five countries, power aid of 2 million kw by ROK
  
• - efforts for the peace and stability in
  Northeast Asia, peace regime talk at a separate
  forum
• - principle of commitment for commitment, action
  for action

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Progresses and obstacles in the de-nuclearization

• Progresses
• - shut-down of nuclear facilities in North Korea
  in July 2007
• - prospective disablement of nuclear facilities
  and clarification of nuclear-related issues by
  the end of December 2007
• Obstacles
• - lack of coordination among the six countries,
  each of whom has ones own strategy and
  objectives
• - the existing distrust between the U.S. and
  North Korea, on the one hand, and Japan and North
  Korea

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Status of abduction issue

• Abduction issue in the context of normalization
  talks
• Previously (before Sept. 2005), the abduction
  issue was considered a bilateral issue.
• Now (after Sept. 2005), the abduction issue is
  linked to the multilateral context, particularly
  to the Six-Party Talks.

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Concluding remarks

• The Korean peninsular still remains the last
  remaining island of the Cold War because of the
  division between two Koreas, both of which
  maintain heavily armed military forces.
• For North Korea, the U.S still remains the key
  enemy, in spite of some progress in the
  U.S.-North Korea relations particularly at the
  Six-Party Talks for the denuclearization of North
  Korea.
• The future in the abduction issue, the most
  sensitive issue in Japan-North Korea relations,
  seems to be linked to the process of the
  denuclearization.
• Engagement with North Korea by neighbors,
  especially the U.S. and Japan, is essential for
  inducing North Koreas cooperation.