International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

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International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety
Research Conference Lisbon November 2004

• Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and
  Deaths

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Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and
Deaths

• The Research Study was commissioned by Transport
  Canada.
• Its objective was to determine any trends that
  might exist in occupant survival in passenger
  aircraft accidents.
• Over the past thirty years improvements have been
  made to many occupant survival factors, however
  little is known as to the real effect that these
  improvements have made to the survivability of
  occupants.

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Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and
Deaths
Three separate studies were carried out on
western world turbojet aircraft as follows

• i) An assessment of the trend in the Total Fatal
  Accident Rate.
• ii) An assessment of the trend based on those
  fatal accidents that have been caused by aircraft
  fires.
• iii) An assessment of the trend in the proportion
  of fire fatalities occurring in aircraft
  accidents as a function of total number of
  occupant fatalities.

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Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and
Deaths
Accidents were studied that satisfied the
following criteria

• The accident occurred to a Western World Turbojet
  aircraft
• The accident resulted in at least one fatality
• iii) The aircraft was operating in the Passenger
  or Passenger/Cargo role with passengers on-board

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Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate

• So what is the trend in total accident rate?

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Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate
Date Total Landings (x1000) Cumulative landings (x1000) ACCIDENTS CUMULATIVE ACCIDENTS Cumulative Accidents per landing
1991 13,079 232,953 8 271 1.16E-06
1992 13,710 246,663 8 279 1.13E-06
1993 14,268 260,931 11 290 1.11E-06
1994 15,097 276,028 10 300 1.09E-06
1995 15,852 291,880 6 306 1.05E-06
1996 16,642 308,522 12 318 1.03E-06
1997 17,372 325,894 10 328 1.01E-06
1998 17,992 343,886 9 337 9.80E-07
1999 18,953 362,839 9 346 9.54E-07
2000 20,501 383,340 10 356 9.29E-07
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Civil Transport Aircraft Fatal Accident Rate
Turbo Jet All Causes
2 x 10-6
1 x 10-6
5 x 10-7
0
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Civil Transport Aircraft Fatal Accident Rate
Turbo Jet All Causes
0
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Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate
Date Total Landings (x1000) Cumulative landings (x1000) ACCIDENTS CUMULATIVE ACCIDENTS Cumulative Accidents per landing
1991 13,079 232,953 8 271 1.16E-06
1992 13,710 246,663 8 279 1.13E-06
1993 14,268 260,931 11 290 1.11E-06
1994 15,097 276,028 10 300 1.09E-06
1995 15,852 291,880 6 306 1.05E-06
1996 16,642 308,522 12 318 1.03E-06
1997 17,372 325,894 10 328 1.01E-06
1998 17,992 343,886 9 337 9.80E-07
1999 18,953 362,839 9 346 9.54E-07
2000 20,501 383,340 10 356 9.29E-07
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Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate

• Another way of presenting the data is to use the
  Duane Growth Model

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Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to
Western World Turbojets
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Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to
Western World Turbojets
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Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents
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Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents
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Trends In Fire Fatalities
An assessment of the proportion of fatalities
attributable to fire in accidents to western
built aircraft over the period 1967 to 2000
inclusive
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Trends In Fire Fatalities

• 131 Accidents were studied and an assessment made
  of the number of fatalities attributable to fire.
  
• Where a precise determination could not be made
  of the number of fatalities attributable to the
  fire the maximum and minimum number possible was
  recorded.

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Trends In Fire Fatalities
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Trends In Fire Fatalities
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Trends In Fire Fatalities
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Conclusions
The Duane Growth Model seems to represent the
improvement in fatal accident rate to western
world turbojets for All fatal accidents Fatal
accidents attributable to fire
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Conclusions
However, trends in fire fatalities could be
predicted with greater accuracy by the
acquisition of more accident data.
There appears to be a continuous downward trend
in the total Fatal Accident Rate and the accident
rate attributable to fire, for western built
turbojet aircraft, over the period 1967 to 2000.
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Conclusions
However, trends in fire fatalities could be
predicted with greater accuracy by the
acquisition of more accident data.

• The proportion of fatalities attributable to fire
  appears to demonstrate a continuous downward
  trend over the period 1967 to 2000.
• However, further data are required to confirm
  this conclusion.