Rodel D' Lasco

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INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS,
ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY IN WATERSHED
AREAS AND COMMUNITIES IN SE ASIA (AS21)

• Rodel D. Lasco
• University of the Philippines

Rodel D. Lasco University of the Philippines
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Introduction

• Philippines gt 70 of the total land area lies
  within watersheds
• 421 principal river basins
• Irrigate gt 1.5 M ha of agricultural lands
• Hydropower major energy source
• 18-20M people living in uplands
• Indonesia most of watersheds in Java are already
  at critical stage

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Landuse change in watersheds
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Project objectives

• Assess the impacts of climate change to water
  resources, forest ecosystems, and social systems
• Conduct integrated vulnerability assessment of
  natural and social systems
• Develop adaptation strategies
• Promote stakeholder participation
• Contribute to peer reviewed literature
• Help build capacity of local scientists

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Research Team

• Philippines University of the Philippines at Los
  Baños (UPLB)
• Department of Environment and Natural Resources
  (DENR)
• Prof. Dr. Rodel D. Lasco
• Prof. Dr. Rex Victor O. Cruz
• Dr. Juan M. Pulhin
• DENR representative
• Indonesia Institute Pertanian Bogor Dr.
  Rizaldi Boer
• Dr. Ekawati S. Wahyuni Ir

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• Key Partners
• Dr. Meine van Noordwijk
• International Center for Research in
  Agroforestry (ICRAF), Bogor, Indonesia
• Dr. Josep Canadell
• GCTE, Australia
• Scientists from Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia
• National government agencies, NGOs and peoples
  organizations

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Methods

• study will focus on a watershed each in the
  Philippines (Pantabangan watershed) and Indonesia
  (Tulang Bawang Watershed).
• Stakeholders will be involved at various steps of
  the research process

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The Pantabangan Watershed
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Research Framework
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Climate scenario MAGICC-SCENGEN
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Table 1. Precipitation anomalies of DJF and JJA
in 2080 using SRESA2 and SRESB2 scenarios for
nine General Circulation Models in one part of
Citarum Watershed
Source Provided by Xian Fu (2002).
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Land Use/Cover Change The CLUE Model (Verlag,
2002)
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Forest ecosystems carbon
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The CO2-Fix Model
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Water Resources OVER-ALL VIC Model(Link with
AS07 Snidvongs et al.)
Liang et al. (1994)
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River Network in Dynamic Routing Model
Lohmann et al. (1996)
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DATA For Model

• Data for VIC Model
• Forcing Data
• Precipitation
• Maximum Temperature
• Minimum Temperature
• Wind speed
• Template Data
• Soil property
• Land cover
• Elevation

• Data for Routing Model
• Elevation
• Stream Network
• Discharge Data

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Human dimension

• Impacts and adaptation of local communities
• Primary and secondary data
• Field reconnaissance and establishment of rapport
  
• Participatory vulnerability and adaptation
  assessment
• Present vulnerability and adaptation of local
  communities to climate variability and extremes

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Human dimension (cont)

• combination of participatory techniques such as
  stakeholder analysis, time line and community
  mapping
• These techniques will be complemented by
  interviews of households
• future impacts of climate change will be assessed
  based on the local peoples experiences and
  responses to past climate variability and
  extremes

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Capacity Building

• The training/workshop on climate change impacts,
  adaptation and vulnerability November 25 to
  December 8, 2002
• 6 participants from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam
• Small research grants provided

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STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
Discussion with agriculture extension workers and
farmers at Bandung District, Indonesia
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NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan, Philippines
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DENR Briefing, Philippines
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CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines
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Thank you!