Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries Overview and Brazil, China, and Turkey Case Studies

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Climate Change Mitigationin Developing
CountriesOverview and Brazil, China,and Turkey
Case Studies

• William Chandler
• Battelle Memorial Institute
• Side Event COP 8
• October 29, 2002

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A Diverse Set of Countries

• Brazil
• Most populous nation in South America
• Heavy reliance on hydropower, biomass
• Worlds largest expanse of rainforest
• China
• Worlds most populous nation
• Heavy reliance on coal
• Growing economy while reducing energy intensity

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A Diverse Set of Countries

• India
• Population will soon surpass Chinas
• Very low per-capita income
• Economy and energy demand growing quickly
• Mexico
• Major oil exporter
• Member of OECD
• Integrating economy with North American market

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A Diverse Set of Countries

• South Africa
• Largest GHG emitter in Africa
• Post-Apartheid political and economic reforms
• Worlds fourth largest producer of coal
• Turkey
• Transit route for Caspian Sea oil and gas
• Member of OECD
• Rapidly rising energy demand/GHG intensity

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A Diverse Set of Countries
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Case Studies

• Energy/Emissions Profile
• Mitigating Measures
• Potential Mitigation Opportunities

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Why China Matters to Climate

• Worlds largest population and second largest GHG
  emissions
• Average annual GDP growth of 9.2 since 1979
• Coal meets over 60 of primary energy demand
  large reserves
• Incomplete economic reform
• Influence on Non-Annex I members

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China
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China Profile

• GDP projected to grow by 5-7 annually through
  2020
• Population growth down to 0.7 in 2002
• Expected structural shift from agriculture to
  services

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China Profile

• Nearly 400,000 premature deaths resulting from
  air pollution in China
• Up to 8 percent of GDP lost due to environmental
  degradation
• 40 percent of land area affected by acid
  deposition
• Sulfur and nitrogen oxides remain a problem
• Very rapid growth in transportation emissions
  expected

Source World Bank (1998), PNNL (1998).
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China

• Mitigating Measures
• Slower population growth
• Economic/energy reforms
• Closure of small, inefficient coal mines
• Efficiency improvements
• Afforestation
• Estimated Mitigation 250 MtC/year

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Energy Price Profile in China
Source China Statistical Yearbook 2001.
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Has Chinese Coal Use Really Declined?
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China

• Energy-related GHG emissions projected to grow
  2-3X by 2030
• Mitigation opportunities
• Continued economic restructuring
• Efficiency technology
• Fuel switching from coal to gas
• Expanded use of renewables
• Mitigation Potential 800 MtC (30-50 of
  projected emissions) in 2030

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Chinas Mitigation Opportunities

• Successful transition from shortage to
  demand-driven economy
• Market prices discipline consumer behavior, but
  investment decisions are not transparent
• Policy loans/unemployment
• Transition in RD activities
• Enforcement of legislation

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Chinas Emerging Gas Sector

• More domestic gas than once thought
• Infrastructure expanding rapidly
• Incentives needed for end-users
• Imports remain important variable

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China
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China - Conclusions

• China has lowered emissions significantly
• For economic and environmental reasons
• Economic reform, efficiency and natural gas
  policies key to future mitigation
• Desire for improved local environmental drives
  co-benefit activities
• Need for stronger partnerships
• Business, environmental, national security

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Brazil

• Energy/Emissions
• Two-thirds of GHG emissions from land use change,
  primarily deforestation
• Nearly half of energy from hydropower, biomass
• Industrialization, growth raising emissions,
  reliance on fossil fuels

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Brazil
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Brazil

• Mitigating Measures
• Use of ethanol, sugar-cane bagasse
• Natural gas cogeneration
• Aggressive energy conservation
• Tax incentive for small cars
• Estimated Mitigation 10 MtC/year

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Brazil
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Brazil

• Energy-related GHG emissions projected to grow
  250 by 2020
• Mitigation opportunities
• Expanded use of ethanol, bagasse, natural gas,
  wind power, and small-scale hydro
• Increased energy conservation
• Mitigation Potential 45 MtC (20 of projected
  emissions) in 2020

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Turkey

• Energy/Emissions
• One of worlds fastest growing energy markets
• Major pipeline projects to establish Eurasian
  Energy Corridor
• GHG intensity higher than most developed
  countries
• Industry growing rapidly, but remains
  inefficient, under government control

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Turkey
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Turkey

• Mitigation measures
• Price reforms driven by European integration
• Efficiency measures
• Five-Year Development Plan
• Privatize energy production, distribution
• Increase use of natural gas, renewables
• Increase energy efficiency
• Estimated Mitigation NA

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Turkey

• Energy-related GHG emissions projected to grow
  nearly 4-fold by 2020
• Mitigation opportunities
• Privatization of industry
• Elimination of energy subsidies
• More efficient power transmission
• Increased use of natural gas, biomass
• Mitigation Potential 10 MtC (9 of projected
  emissions) in 2010

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Turkey
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Conclusions

• Efforts over past 30 years have reduced
  collective emissions of the six countries by 288
  MtC/year
• Without these efforts, their emissions would be
  18 higher
• For perspective, under the Kyoto Protocol,
  developed countries would have to reduce
  emissions by 392 MtC from projected levels in 2010

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Conclusions

• Most mitigating efforts have common drivers
• Economic growth
• Energy security
• Local environmental protection

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Conclusions

• Common barriers to future mitigation
• Lack of information
• Lack of capacity
• Market distortion
• Lack of technology and investment

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Conclusions

• Policies can advance climate protection and
  development priorities by
• Supporting continued market reforms
• Mobilizing investment
• Supporting capacity-building
• Promoting efforts to improve air quality, land
  conservation

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For More Information

• www.pewclimate.org