Technology Foresight and Competitive Technical Intelligence: Impact on Government Technology Policy

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Technology Foresight and Competitive Technical
Intelligence Impact on Government Technology
Policy

• Jonathan Calof, Telfer School of Management,
• University of Ottawa calof_at_telfer.uottawa.ca, and
• Jack Smith, Foresight Advisor, Defence RD
  Canada, jack.smith_at_drdc-rddc.gc.ca

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The Core for Good Policy

• The policy and corporate decisions made today for
  nanotechnology need to be based on a solid
  understanding of tomorrows environment.
• Policy needs to be based on an understanding of
  capacity and competitive advantage
• Policy can help support capacity and advantage
• Policy can direct the development of new capacity
  and advantage

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Foresight, Roadmaps and Indicators for the
Emerging Nano-industry Your Conference

• The future of nanoindustry
• Trends and policies for emerging technologies
• Nanotechnology Foresight and roadmaps
• Integrated statistical framework for measuring
  emerging/enabling technologies
• These are the same concepts as Competitive
  Technical intelligence (CTI) and Strategic
  Technology Foresight (STF)
• Success requires policy based on concepts 1-4

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Presentation Objectives

• Define Competitive Technology Intelligence (CTI)
  and Strategic Technology Foresight (STF) and
  their objectives
• Provide examples from both government and private
  sector on how CTI and STF have had impact, and
  how together they can be even more useful
• Present research findings on what is required to
  have CTI and STF that successfully impacts
  policy, programs and industry.

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What is CTI

• Competitive technical intelligence (CTI) is
  competitive intelligence within the RD arena
  (Ashton, 1994 Herring, 1993, Viol et al 1998).
• It has been defined as
• business sensitive information on external
  scientific or technological threats,
  opportunities, or developments that have the
  potential to affect a companys competitive
  situation
• (Ashton and Klavans 1997, page 11).

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Objective of CTI

• To provide early warning of external technical
  developments or company moves that represent
  potential business, threats or opportunities.
• To evaluate new product, process or collaborative
  prospects created by external science and
  technology (ST) activities in time to permit
  appropriate responses.
• To anticipate and understand ST related shifts
  or trends in the competitive environment as
  preparation for organizational planning and
  strategic development. Ashton and Klavans

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Success StoriesIndustry CTI
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What is STF?

• A set of strategic tools that support
  government and industry decisions with adequate
  lead time for societal preparation and strategic
  response and a staged learning process to
  inform priorities, actions and policy choices..
• Key Attributes
• Anticipates multiple, plausible futures
• 5 25 year time horizon
• A rehearsal for potential futures
• Accommodates uncertainty diversity
• Highlights emerging opportunities threats
• Includes iconoclastic viewpoints

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Objective of STF

• Elaborate a plausible range of future situations
• Richly describe and context prospective futures
• Examine implications, impacts and consequences
• Support decision makers with informed, robust
  strategies, and increase policy makers awareness
  of contingencies, and agile options.

UK ForeSight
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Foresight informs Strategy Process
Define Project Topic
Review Current Situation
Identify Key Lenses
Answer Challenge Questions
Populate Each Scenario
Identify Change Drivers
Backcast to Present
Select Critical Drivers
Synthesis Recommendations
Identify Scenarios
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Foresight Strategy shape the Policy Process
Foresight Insights Learning
Review Backcast for Leverage Points
Identify Strategic Goals, Problems
Address Challenge Questions, e.g why us?
Engage Stakeholders
Prospective Roles Solutions
Make Choices, Commit to Actions
Formulate Robust Strategies ( How)
Success Performance Measures
Revisit Strategies, Goals
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Success Stories Government Foresight

• Singapore ( RAHS) 2400 government staff
  empowered with weekly scanning managed by Shaping
  tomorrow and 4 PY
• Finland (Finnsight) A new infrastructure for
  collaborative balancing of future industrial
  strategies and strategic research placements
• Japan (NISTEP) Using Delphi and partnership
  with Finland to establish an expanded foresight
  application to innovation policy
• UK (Foresight Office) Expert panels and
  multi-departments focus on big policy challenges
  (e.g. obesity) which transcend regular mandates\
• Ireland (Forfas) Foresight used to identify
  Science and technology investment priorities

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What are Foresight Best Practices? What Leads to
Success The Foresight Study

• Phase 1 Survey practitioners to identify the
  foresight organizations they admire most
• Phase 2 Interviews with the directors of those
  organizations to discuss how they were formed,
  budget, best practices, how they evolved, etc.
• Phase 3 Look for consistent patterns in the
  qualitative data
• Phase 4 Replicate the study with more
  organizations
• Phase 5 Review, rank and comment by expert panel
  of global foresight leaders
• Phase 6 Capture success story vignettes

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What is Success?Foresight Respondents

• Actionable policy guidance and policy impacts
• Transferable intelligence for business
• Budget growth
• Requests from policy ministries
• Program stability
• But primarily Impact on decision, policy, and
  policy framing.

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Conclusions Phases 1-4 Foresight CSFs in
Addition to Methodology/Skills

• Focus on a clearly identified client
• Clear link between foresight and todays policy
  agenda
• Direct links to senior policy makers
• Provides methodologies and skills that are not
  always used in other departments
• Clear communication strategy
• Integration of stakeholders in programs
• Academic receptor

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Phase 5 Expert Panel Ratings (in addition to
methodology/skills)

• Focus on a clearly identified client (6.3/7.0)
• Clear link between foresight and todays policy
  agenda (5.25/7)
• Direct links to senior policy makers (5.5)
• Provides methodologies and skills that are not
  always used in other departments (5.6)
• Clear communication strategy (5.9)
• Integration of stakeholders in programs (6.1)
• Academic receptor (dropped as it is cultural)

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THE CTI Study Best Practices A Micro Study of
a Canadian CTI unit

• Interviewed over a dozen of their clients
• Asked in general what benefits had they received
  from the Foresight/TI
• Gave them the reports they had commissioned and
  asked the question again (said tell me your
  stories)
• Then gave them a list of benefits from the
  literature that foresight and intelligence is
  supposed to bring. Asked them to assess the list
  (add, take away)
• After the interview revised the list of benefits
  and emailed it back to them for comments
• Developed a framework for assessing performance
  and a model to explain success

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Confirmation From Industry Need Skills

• Focus on a clearly identified client - YES
• Clear link between CTI and decisions - YES
• Direct links to decision makers - YES
• Provides methodologies and skills that are not
  always used in other areas - YES
• Clear communication strategy YES other
  programs to build appropriate culture
• Integration of stakeholders in programs - YES
• Academic receptor Not relevant

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Conclusions Remember the Cs While You Are
Here

• CTI/STF is first and foremost about learning to
  understand Change
• It requires Commitment, Clarity of purpose and
  appreciation by the players and the sponsors
• Good CTI/STF is fundamentally Collaborative and
  collaborators are also essential for its
  Credibility
• It is a participant activity - people want to be
  Consulted and have their ideas Considered.
• Its more about Conversations and rich stories of
  life experience than just analytics
• Challenging Conventions, and including some
  iconoclastic perspectives is useful
• The most astute insights arise from explicitly
  Critical thinking.
• Encourage Creativity as a key asset to the
  project, especially in attracting creative
  individuals
• CTI/STF is more about Conversations and rich
  stories of life experience than just analytics

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Conclusions Remember the Cs When you get
home

• Champions are necessary, and Critics should also
  be Constructive
• Computation and simulation are however becoming
  indispensible for managing the complexities
• CTI/STF also needs to record, Capture and
  measure-evaluate the information it generates
• Tools described above should be both Concurrent
  and Connected
• Finally it is ultimately about Communications
  at every level .