Energy and Climate Security for a World with 10 Billion People The DESERTEC Concept eparliament hear

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Energy and Climate Security for a World with 10
Billion PeopleThe DESERTEC Concept e-parliament
hearing, Poznan 2008

• Gerhard Knies
• DESERTEC Project manager for The Club of Rome and
  
• co-ordinator of TREC
• www.desertec.org , Gerhard.Knies_at_.trec-eumena.org

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Sea level IS rising
Sea level is rising FASTER than expected may be
1 meter by 2100
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Sea-level vs earth temperature

• The main reason for these large sea-level changes
  is the change in quantities of water that are
  tied up on the land in the form of ice. The
  sea-level equivalent of the ice mass of
• Greenland ice 7m,
• West Antarctic ice 6m,
• East Antarctic ice 50m.
• All arctic ice 70m
• Around 35 million years ago (in the Eocene) was
  the last time our
• planet was completely free of polar ice caps,
  thanks to high CO2 concentrations related to the
  plate-tectonic situation at the time, and sea
  level was almost 70m higher than today (Zachos et
  al., 2001 Barrett, 2003).
• In this kind of time frame, however, volume
  changes in the ocean basins due to plate
  tectonics can also contribute to sea-level
  changes.

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Adaptation
climate change comes faster than expected .
clean energies have to come faster than
planned
Capitulation ?
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Rome 12-12-2008Bis zu 100 Liter Regen pro
Quadratmeter fielen in einer Nacht - so viel wie
sonst binnen eines Jahres. (Foto dpa)
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12-12-2008                    Die Fluten
bedrohten auch die zahlreichen Kulturschätze in
der "ewigen Stadt". (Foto AP)
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Fossil fuel civilization 10/3 CRASH until 2050
from 2000 2050
.
pp 10 bn
Population growth
CRASH
6 bn 5 bn
Population, pp carrying capacity, cc

• Fossil Energies
• exhaustible (x2/3)
• GH effect (x2/3)
• carrying cap.

energy water climate food crisis
Carrying cap. degradation
cc2-3 bn
About 4 Earths required fossil energies ? crash
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Our Earth 2050
How can 10 billion People live sustainably on
planet Earth ?

• 20th century
• national security
• ?21st century energyclimate security
• !

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5 Essentials for a Sustainable Worldwith 10
Billion People in 2050

• Affordable and sufficient water, food energy
• Stable economy
• Stable climate
• End of further population growth
• Peace based on justice
• ? Enough energy for civilization
• ?Enough water desalination and re-use
• ?Enough food irrigation
• ?Enough and stable economy
• ?Enough wealth to stop population growth
• ? Enough energy for equal developmental
  opportunity for all
• ? Clean energy for stable climate
• New SECURITY paradigm enough clean energy

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How much power is enough ?

• Power per capita per year 5 (/- 1) MWh
• 2006 world 3.1, OECD 8.6, USA12.2,
  India0.9, Germany6.4, Algeria1MWh
• World pop. 2050 10 (/- 0.5) billion cap
• 50,000 TWh/y, (/- 20)
• 18,000 TWh/y present value

Is there a way to provide enough clean energy?
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DESERTECa global solution for 2 global
problemsClimate and Energy Securityfor a
Sustainable World with 10 billion People by Clean
Power from Deserts
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Solar Energy coming to Deserts like 22 cm of
oil, each year700-fold World Energy Consumption
6 hours sunshine deserts 1 year world energy
consumption
Enough Clean Power from Deserts ?
All knownexpected Reserves (BGR 2005
report) Conv. NatGas 2 weeks sun
Conv. Oil 2 weeks sun
Uran. Thorium 2 weeks sun
All fossil fuels , knownexpected, convent.
unconvent. 40 weeks sun
How can climate change be stopped by clean
power from deserts?
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Point and line concentrating mirrors
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New line of solar steam generator for power
plants NOVATEC Linear Fresnel Collector
easy to produce everywhere fast to mount by
LOCAL labor force
Underneath shaded space for horticulture SOLAR
OASIS

• 16 long mirrors concentrate
• sun rays to an absorber pipe
• steam, ?turbine, ?electricity
• Much simpler than a nuclear reactor

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Solar Thermal Power TechnologiesThermal Heat
Storage for night operation
just more collectors storage tanks, not more
power-plants
Heat from day for night
steam at night
where is the energy problem ?
steam at day time

• Thermal Storage solar energy at night!
• power generation by demand dispatchable or firm
  capacity

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From deserts to the world solar power via
low-loss long-distance transmission HVDC  
Cables, (ground, submarine)
In DC cables 0.3 loss after 100 km
In AC cables 100 loss after 100 km
Overhead lines
AC
Transformer cost

• In favor of DC over AC
• The un-limited reach (cables)
• The lower losses/km
• The lower power line costs/GW
• The lower space demand/GW

DC
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DESERTEC Clean Power from Deserts for the
World with 10 bn
BIOMASS For comparison AREA required for same
power
3000 km
world electricity demand 2050 (50,000 TWh/y) 50
from deserts 25,000 TWh can be produced from
360 x 360 km² 0.31 of all
deserts distributed over 10 000 sites
More than 90 of world pop could be served by
clean power from deserts !
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50,000 TWh/y gt 10,000 solar GW
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Where is the energy/climate problem ?

• Energy resource DESERT over-abundant
• Solar technology (CSP) working
• Heat storage technology working
• Wind technology working
• transmission technology working
• Capital existing
• For 1 400 solar GW(EUMENA, 2050)
  collector prod. from 0.25 GW/y ? 100 GW/y by
  2050 16/y 2035 26/y
• Fast CSP collector prod. and deployment is the
  challenge EUMENA 1-2 GW/week, world
  wide 1-2 GW/day 7 X EUMENA

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How to finance ?

• Accepted legal principle
• Causation Principle
• Important practical principle
• Fastest progress approach

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Fossil heritage the developmental disparity and
dilemma

• The fossil fuels burnt up to now have gone BUT
  they leave 4 heritages
• Early developed economies, mainly in the north
  with 1 bn people, with a wealth advantage of
  27,000 /cap over world average of 6,600 /cap,
  as a result of historiv use of cheap fossil
  fuels.
• A demolished global common atmosphere and
  climate, with a severe global risk potential,
  including a global climate disaster
• Largely depleted fossil fuel stocks (PEAK OIL),
  and rising energy costs
• A desire in the rest of world (5.5 bn people,
  2,200 /cap, a wealth disadvantage of 4,600
  /cap under world average) for similar wealth as
  the 1.0 bn early developed rich.
• But the delayed developing countries
• have no way to achieve similar wealth with the
  remaining fossil fuels, without producing a
  global climate disaster.
• are more vulnerable and less adaptable to weather
  extremes long term climate change processes
  higher temp., different precipitation, different
  agriculture, new diseases etc
• do not have the economic strength to cope with
  rising fuel costs developmental barrier
• Many will be pushed to the edge of survival or to
  below

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1-WORLD strategy along causation and fastest
progress principles! for energy and climate
security, and equal development opportunity
3 regions with highest wealth advantage (GNP
above world average by 30,000 bn
/year)) stemming from their early development
and historic GHG emissions
EU
1
UC
1
JA
1
Planetary climate and energy security fund
spend 1 of inherited wealth advantage ( 30
bn /y) for efficient investments into clean
power from desert projects in
10 bn /y
10 bn /y
10 Bn /y
C
A
I
regions with very fast growing power demand and
proximity to deserts
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DESERTEC Concept for EU-MENA 1/7 of world
10,000 ?1,400 GW solar collector capac.
deserts technology for energy, water and
climate security
EUMENA Study By DLR MED-CSP TRANS-CSP for German
govt
Club of Rome White Paper 2007
(www.desertec.org)

• Sun-belt technology belt
• synergies from
• interconnection
• technology cooperation

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The 3 CSP studies
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Task Develop a sustainable scenario for power
generation in Europe taking into consideration
the transfer of solar electricity from
MENA Result A well balanced mix of renewables
with fossil fuel backup can provide low cost,
secure and compatible electricity for Europe.
Solar electricity imports can significantly
reduce the electricity cost. East European
countries can also benefit from clean power from
deserts via HVDC (super-)grid connecting to
Arabian Pensinsula and to Egypt.
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Driving Force for Electricity Demand Population
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Taking into account 2000 - 2050

• Population growth
• Economic growth GNP per capita
• Power consumptin per GNP/cap
• ? Expectation for development of power
  consumption

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Driving Force for Electricity Demand Growth of
Economy
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Development of the Per Capita Electricity Demand
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Gross Electricity Demand in the Analysed Countries
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3 Sampled Sites for Solar Electricity Supply from
MENA (selected for maximum irradiance, but other
criteria possible)
Direct Normal Irradiance for CSP in kWh/m²/a.
Excluded Sites are White.
The primary solar energy resource equals 1 2
barrel/m²/y of heating oil
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4 Exemplary Centres of Demand in Europe
Population Density in Persons/km² (Landscan)
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4 Exemplary Centres of Demand in Europe
Population Density in Persons/km² (Landscan)
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3(4) Analysed Samples for EU-MENA HVDC
Interconnection
3 x 5 GW x 7000 h/y 105 TWh/y
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Figure 12 Cost of electricity in Span and in
Germany (TRANS-CSP 2006) red TRANS-CSP mix with
increasing share of renewable sources, black
continuing the mix of the year 2000 with fuel
cost escalation, yellow CSP import from Africa,
orange local CSP production in Spain, green mix
2000 but phasing out nuclear as scheduled in
Germany.
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Power demand and supply scenario, MENA and EU
EUMENA transition mix 2050 CSP 3,000 TWh 1/7
world solar supply
MENA
6 times more
in MENA, including export to Europe and power
for desalination
in EU-25, and 17 import from MENA By adding
clean power from deserts EU may win 10-15 years
in the fight against climate change.
EU-25
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Figure 8 Scenario of the installed power
capacity in comparison to the cumulated peak
load of all countries in the EUMENA region. Firm
power capacity is calculated on the basis of
capacity credits for each technology according to
Table 2. By the year 2050, 68 of the installed
CSP capacity is used for local supplies, 19
for long-distance transmission and 13 for
desalination.
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Figure 10 Model of the hourly electricity
balance of Germany in 2050 (Brischke 2005)
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Resulting EUMENA-wide decarbonization compatible
with climate goal DTlt2
where is the climate problem ?
- 81
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DESERTEC Concept for EU-MENA 1/7 of world
10,000 ?1,400 solar GW collector capac.
TREC/DESERTEC White Paper 2007 Club of Rome
(www,desertec.org) 28-November 2007
deserts technology for energy, water and
climate security
3 CSP Studies by DLR
Prof. Gert Pöttering EU-Parliam.
HRH Prince Hassan Jordan
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Greece
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Romania
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Poland
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Summary

• Enough clean power for 10 billion people can be
  provided with clean power from deserts as the
  backbone (DESERTEC Concept).
• In the proposed 1-world strategy, based on the
  causation and fastest success principles,
  humankind can still (!) win the race against
  climate change -80 GHG from power till 2050(!),
  40, 35(?)
• Materials, technologies (mainly Solar CSP and
  wind), finances and industrial capacities ok
• Missing national security ? global
  energyclimate security
• Clean power from deserts and off-shore wind power
  will also give cheaper and safer energy supply
  than fossil and nuclear power.
• Eastern European countries can also be supplied
  with clean power from deserts.

Thank you, (Gerhard.Knies_at_www.desertec.org)
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Austria
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Hanover Industrial Fair Statement 2008at Energy
Forum 10,000 Solar GigaWatts
Based on our present knowledge and available
technologies, we are convinced that CSP solar
thermal collectors for about 10,000 GW, as
necessary for global energy and climate security
by clean power from deserts, could be produced
in a world-wide effort up to 2050. Adequate
policies are required. (? New DESERTEC
foundation will work on this) Setting up the
necessary production capacities for materials and
components we consider as major business
opportunities.
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Employment/Manpower in the Solar BusinessW.
Knothe, CEO MAN-ferrostaal, April 2008
Automotive vs. Solar

How many engineers will work in the CSP Solar
Business ?
In 2040 CSP will be a strong player in global
Plant Construction Business (gt20)
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The 10,000 Solar Gigawatt InitiativeTopics for
a study on fast CSP collector deployment by
2050 (fast track), or by 2040 (express track ) ?

• demands and resources for materials
• mass production challenges
• Collector types line- and point- concentrator,
  HTF, salt, steam, ...
• Collector designs Simplicity, modularity,
  automated production,
• Locations for production Europe, NA, ME, India,
  USA, China
• mass deployment challenges
• Grids, routes and capacities, injection points to
  AC grids
• Identification of suitable collector sites, solar
  atlas
• Power plant operation in desert regions
• labour force for deployment, availability,
  training
• Competent players for general contractors,
• ...

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Economies of early and of late developed regions
(2005) (GNP as by Atlas-Method)Source
Wikipedia, 2008-11-06 http//de.wikipedia.org/wiki
/BruttonationaleinkommenInternationaler_Vergleich
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The great accomplishments of mankind have
resulted from the transmission of ideas and
enthusiasm. Thomas J. Watson (1874-1956, American
Entrepreneur and Founder of IBM
Turning Ideas Into Reality
The DESERTEC Concept Clean power from deserts
for a sustainable world of 10 billion people
TREC, MEDENER, UfM-MSP, ESTELA, OME, ALDDEP (to
be created ARAB LEAGUE DESERT DEVELOPMENT PLAN)
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Summary

• Enough Clean power for 10 billion people by
  2050 possible, with clean power from deserts as
  the backbone (DESERTEC).
• Materials and industrial capacities for 10,000
  collector Gigawatt ok
• CSP more than a technology key to a sustainable
  energy future.
• 10,000 Solar Gigawatt Initiative should be
  launched prepare fast
  (express?) CSP collector production and
  deployment, make private sector take the lead !
• DESERTEC unique businessdevelopment opportunity
  for countries with deserts!
• Transition to clean power matter of global
  security. can and must be supported by
  politics (World Security Council?)

Thank you, (Gerhard.Knies_at_www.desertec.org)
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MSP-DESERTEC 30th Anniversary Milestones of
Solar Energy
Union for the Mediterranean the Mediterranean
Solar Plan
2008
DESERTEC in Sub-Sahara-Africa ECOWAS Solar
Plan(ESP) connects to MSP
2010
In North Equator Africa solar power
competitive against fossil fuel power
2012
First HVDC line (5GW) Algeria Europe , first
CSP collector oasis in Algeria
2015
Electro-Motors or Fuel Cell mandatory for 50
of all new cars worldwide
2020
DESERTEC in India and China they stop building
new coal power plants
2025
More than 50 of former weapons industry now
in CSP Construction
2030
MSP Super-grid reaches 50 GW Africa EU
2035
30th Anniversary Celebration of UfM 5.000 GW
installed capacity CSP
2038
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WP02 Scenario Scope Develop a sustainable
scenario for power generation in Europe taking
into consideration the transfer of solar
electricity from MENA Result A well balanced
mix of renewables with fossil fuel backup can
provide low cost, secure and compatible
electricity for Europe. Solar electricity imports
can significantly reduce the electricity cost.
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Driving Force for Electricity Demand Growth of
Economy
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• What

Can we
still do ?
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• There are several ways, a very powerful one is
• The DESERTEC Concept
• Clean power from deserts
• for a sustainable world of 10 billion people

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Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
The Fossil Fuel Death Spiral
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration, Annual growth
1970 1979 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 1989 1.6 ppm
y1 1990 1999 1.5 ppm y-1
Year 2007 383 ppm 37 above pre-industrial 280
2000 - 2007 2.0 ppm y-1 2007 2.2 ppm
y-1
Present concentration is the highest during last
650,000 years and probably during the last 20
million years. Growth of ppm is growing! ?
fossil system boom-and-bust
Data Source Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway,
NOAA/ESRL, courtesy Wolfgang Lucht
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Turkey
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Bulgaria
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Hungary
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Slovac Republic
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Czech Republic