Title: WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND FARMERS: AN OVERVIEW : Roger Stone
1WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND FARMERS AN OVERVIEW
Roger Stone Expert meeting 15-18 November 2004.
2- Some key underlying points
- Improved seasonal to interannual climate
prediction offers farmers and agricultural
industry the opportunity to protect, or even to
increase, economic well-being. - These advances in science in meteorology and
climatology should enable society to deal with
the effects of weather and climate variability
more effectively than ever before. - The effectiveness of forecast information
depends strongly on the systems that distribute
the information, the farmers modes of
understanding and judgement about the information
sources, and the ways in which the information is
presented (after Stern and Easterling, 1999). -
3We now have the capability to predict seasonal
rainfall in many world regions
(From Stone et al Nature, Nov 1996)
4Forecasts are prepared in a variety of ways
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6It may be the case that the manner in which
forecasts are prepared and disseminated has a
major bearing on how or whether these forecasts
can be utilised.
7The value of forecasts to farmers will depend not
only on their accuracy but also on the management
options available to the user to take advantage
of the forecasts (Nicholls, 1991).
8Climate and weather information may have no
value unless it changes management decisions.
- Management decisions require management tools
9Climate Information and Forecasts and Decision
Making
Industry
Business and Resource Managers
Information Axis General
Targeted
Government
- Water allocation
- Planning and policy associated with exceptional
Events
- Crop size
- Forecast
- Early Season
- Supply
- Supply Patterns
- Shipping
- Global Supply
- Irrigation
- Fertilisation
- fallow practice
- land prep
- planting
- weed manag.
- pest manag.
- Improved Planning for wet weather disruption
season start and finish - Crop size forecast
- CCS, fibre levels
- Civil works schedule
- Land Water Resource
- Management
- Environmental Management
C l i m a t e Scale Information
Farm Harvest, Transport, Mill
Catchment Marketing Policy
Scale Axis
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11Case study example from RSA An integrated
climate-farming/cropping systems forecast
Probability () of exceeding maize yields of 2.5
t/ha
Planting date 1 November (El Niño Years)
Planting date 1 November (La Niña Years)
12Forecasting the Australian Grain Crop example of
a fully integrated agrometeorological system
13 14 15 16Terms of Reference for the Expert Team on
Weather, Climate and Farmers (a) To review and
develop recommendations for enhancing more
effective and regular communication, and dialogue
for training and demonstration between
agrometeorological services and farmers at the
local level to provide better services to
farmers (b) To review the use of weather and
climate data and make recommendations for
improvements in applications of
agrometeorological products, and advisories and
forecasts for both short-term daily operational
decisions and long-term strategic planning at the
farm level (c) To establish procedures and
guidance for the proper use of agrometeorological
information for crop, livestock, forestry and
fisheries management (d) To describe, using
case studies from Member countries, successful
applications of weather and climate for
agriculture, and review the strengths, weaknesses
and limitations for more general use and To
prepare reports for operational applications in
accordance with timetables established by the
OPAG and/or MG.
17Thank you