GECAFS DSS Inaugural Workshop Jan 11, 2005

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GECAFS DSS Inaugural WorkshopJan 11, 2005

• Steve Sonka
• University of Illinois

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Agenda

• Philosophy
• Demonstration
• A Case Study
• Results,
• Effects, and
• Lessons

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Philosophy (1)

• Factors in the external environment
• Government policies
• Technology
• Biogeophysical
• Human decision making processes are challenged
  when decisions involve
• Time lags (between decision and outcome)
• Uncertainty
• Causal ambiguity

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Philosophy (2)

• Strategic versus operating choices,
• Climate versus weather
• Operating choices
• Routine
• DSSs enhance
• Strategic choices
• Humans DSSs tend to struggle
• Effective DSSs for strategic choice
• As much to generate better questions
• As to provide answers

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Philosophy (3)Decisions, Decisions, Decisions

• DSSs inform, dont make decisions
• Decision will come from some group process
• DSS not likely to be used by decision maker
• Credibility must be earned, but not by use
• Decision maker(s) wont be able to give enough
  attention
• Decision makers
• Can describe problems/issues/concern
• DSS developer is responsible for design

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Visualization PrinciplesTufte

• Escape the Flatland (of 2 dimensions)
• Color
• Compared to what ?
• Time as the 4th dimension
• Macro / micro perspectives

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The Case Study

• Client
• Illinois Soybean Program Operating Board
• NGO
• Mission components
• Market development
• Research
• Charge Help us better anticipate the future
  global need for protein
• Longer term perspective
• Enhance commonality of perspective
• Improve communication across sector

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The Dynamics of Protein and Malnutrition

• Charge from soybean industry leaders Help us
  better anticipate the future global need for
  protein
• Longer term
• Commonality of perspective
• Accurate, science-based methods

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The Protein Consumption Dynamics (PCD) Model

• The PCD model
• A system dynamics simulation engine (Powersim)
• A visualization delivery tool (In3D)
• Driving forces in the simulation
• Population
• Total income
• Diet choices relative to per capita income

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Relationships Underlyingthe PCD Model
Total Population
Total Malnourished
Total Appetite
Income Distribution Per Capita
Proportion Malnourished
Total Income
Per Capita Appetite
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Commodities of Interest
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Regional Aggregations
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Move to Visualization

• Fisher, D. K. 2000. Assessing how information
  affects cognitive maps of strategic issues.
  Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation. University of
  Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
• Fisher, D. K., S. T. Sonka, and R. E. Westgren.
  "Strategic Decision Making in the
  Quasi-Government Sector The Illinois Soybean
  Program Operating Board" International Journal of
  Organization Theory and Behavior, 7(2004)42-65.

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Effects

• Quasi experimental measurements
• Anecdotal interpretation of actual decisions

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Ranking of Strategic Issues Before and After
Intervention
Rank (1 is MOST important)
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Ranking of Strategic Issues Before and After
Intervention
Rank (1 is MOST important)
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Ranking of Strategic Issues Before and After
Intervention
Rank (1 is MOST important)
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Implications / Effects

• Existing marketing / promotion skills and
  resources are aligned with past, not the future
  (geography and practices)
• Global income growth is 1 strategic issue
  (international trade policy)
• Efforts to reduce malnutrition should be on the
  strategic agenda for human and business reasons
  (World Initiative for Soy in Human Health)
• Development of Version 2 funded

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Lessons

• Strategic choices / DSSs have distinctive
  characteristics
• Philosophy goal is better conversation
• Visualization Tufte principles are helpful
• Case study
• intervention and
• the IT-based tools