Modelling of Pb and Cd by The Netherlands Addo van Pul, Henri den Hollander, Hans van Jaarsveld MNP

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Modelling of Pb and Cd by The NetherlandsAddo
van Pul, Henri den Hollander, Hans van Jaarsveld
MNP RIVMIlia Ilyin, Sergey Dutchak MSC-E
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• Goal
• Show the quality of the HM-modelling by the
  EUTREND model of RIVM
• Compare this with MSC-E HM model

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EUTREND model

• European version of the OPS model used in the
  Netherlands (van Jaarsveld, 1995, 2005)
• EUTREND used in a variety of international
  studies on acidification, HM, POP for ESQUAD,
  OSPAR
• Main features
• Lagrangian dispersion/transport model which
  covers the European continent and marginal seas
• in combination with a plume model (analytical
  solution a.d. eqn.) air concentration as a
  function of source height and dispersion
  parameters

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EUTREND cont.

• transport and deposition of particles modelled in
  5 size classes
• no natural emissions
• No orography
• uncertainty for deposition 30-50 excl.
  uncertainty in emissions factor of 2 at specific
  sites
• Intercomparison between EUTREND and MSC-E HM
• meteorology 1990, official emissions
• Source characteristics (emission height, particle
  size distribution) more or less similar

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Results for The Netherlands by OPS
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Comparison to measurements 1990 Official emissions
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Comparison to measurements 2000 Official emissions
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Comparison to European data Official Emissions
1990 Pb Air
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Comparison to European data Official Emissions
1990 Pb Precipitation
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Comparison to European data Official Emissions
2000 Pb Air
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Comparison to European data Official Emissions
2000 Pb Precipitation
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Comparison to European data Official Emissions
1990 Cd Air
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Comparison to European data Official Emissions
1990 Cd Precipitation
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Spatial distribution
1990 Pb Air EUTREND vs. MSC-E HM
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• 1990 Pb deposition EUTREND vs. MSC-E HM

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• 2000 Pb Air EUTREND vs. MSC-E HM

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Conclusions

• Pb modelling for 1990 relatively small
  underestimation of observations ca. 40
• Pb modelling for 2000 large underestimations
  reason uncertainties in emissions and
  observations
• Pb observations in air follow the emission
  pattern much better than precipitation
  observations
• Pb in 2000 is more like situation for Cd large
  change in emissions patterns shift from low ?
  high sources
• Cd modelling for 1990 and 2000 large
  underestimations reason uncertainties in
  emissions and observations

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Conclusions on EUTREND and MSC-E HM

• Modeled spatial patterns and total deposition are
  quite similar
• Differences between models
• EUTREND shows higher air concentrations
• EUTREND more smooth pattern than MSC-E HM
• Reason for differences vertical resolution, dry
  deposition?