SUPPORT to the STATISTICS SECTOR of BOSNIA and HERZEGOVINA (BiH)

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SUPPORT to the STATISTICS SECTOR of BOSNIA and
HERZEGOVINA (BiH) Phase IIIBA05-IB-ST-01

• Michelle Jouvenal, ISTAT, proposed Project Leader
• Ronald Delemont, ISTAT, proposed Resident
  Twinning Advisor
• Sarajevo, 4 October 2005

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BENEFICIARY COUNTRY (BC)

• The BC is Bosnia and Herzegovina
• The direct beneficiaries of the Twinning project
  are the relevant statistical authorities, having
  the task of supporting the development and
  sustainability of the National Statistical System
  of BiH (NSS)
• The relevant statistical authorities of BiH are
• - BHAS, the Bosnia and Herzegovina Agency of
  Statistics
• - FIS, the Institute of Statistics of the
  Federation of BiH
• - RSIS, the Institute of Statistics of the
  Republika Srpska
• - CBBH, the Central Bank of Bosnia and
  Herzegovina

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MEMBER STATE (MS)

• The MS is Italy, through ISTAT, its National
  Institute of Statistics
• A partnership among MS public administration
  Institutions
• - ISTAT, the Italian National Institute of
  Statistics
• - DST, Statistics Denmark
• - HCSO, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office
• - SORS, the Statistical Office of the Republic
  of Slovenia
• Complementarity of backgrounds and approach

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TWINNING PRINCIPLES

• Administrative co-operation in the field of
  statistics
• Committment to achieve mandatory results through
  the transfer of hands-on public sector experience
  and expertise
• Yield concrete operational results, in terms of
  the beneficiary institutions of BiH meeting the
  mandatory results in connection with the EU
  acquis communautaire in statistics
• A common project, covering a process in which all
  partners take on overall and specific
  responsibilities
• Joint drafting of a detailed work plan, before
  starting the work

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STEPS TOWARDS THE WORK PLAN

• Identification of the Resident Twinning Advisor,
  Institutional Strengthening Expert and long-term
  Project Assistant
• Identification of the most suitable institutional
  partners to meet mandatory results by component
• Submission of the Twinning proposal
• If selected, progressive joint work between the
  beneficiary and the Twinning partners, aimed at
  the design of a detailed Work plan
• The Work plan will include detailed activities by
  component, the indication of corresponding
  experts, timeframe, expected outputs and
  measurable indicators of achievement
• The Budget annexed to the Work plan will link
  every activity to its costs

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TWINNING MANDATORY OBJECTIVES and RESULTS

• The overall objective of the intervention is to
  support the
• needs of the relevant statistical authorities of
  BiH by
• strengthening the capacity of providing timely,
  reliable and harmonised statistical data for the
  country
• supporting the participation of Bosnia and
  Herzegovina in the Stabilisation and Association
  Process

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TWINNING MANDATORY OBJECTIVES and RESULTS

• The specific objectives of the Twinning project
  are
• improving data collection and harmonisation of
  methods and information between BHAS, FIS and
  RSIS, in line with European standards
• improving the efficiency of the BiH statistical
  system through technical assistance and training
• increasing confidence in official statistics and
  raising the public profile of the Statistical
  Institutes
• setting the basis for the further establishment
  of a network connection between the three
  Statistical Institutes

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TWINNING MANDATORY OBJECTIVES and RESULTS

• Seven distinguished Twinning components
• National Accounts
• Business Register
• Business Statistics
• - structural business surveys
• - producer price indices for wholesale trade and
  industry
• - production indices in construction, industry
  and trade
• External Trade Statistics
• Strengthening the institutional infrastructure of
  the BiH Statistical Institutes
• Agricultural Statistics
• - agriculture price indices
• - economic accounts for agriculture
• Financial Sector Statistics

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EXISTING SITUATION UPDATE andCO-ORDINATION NEEDS

• EUROSTAT UN-ECE 2003
• Global Assessment of the Statistical System of
  BiH
• Phase I and Phase II of EC Technical Assistance
  projects
• 2001 CARDS Regional programme, and its three
  pilot projects (PPP, External Trade and DOSME),
  training, study visits and participation to
  international meetings
• 2003 CARDS Regional programme, with activities
  similar to the previoys programme and four pilot
  projects (PPP, External Trade, Migration
  Statistics, Labour Market statistics)
• IMF long-term resident statistical advisor, for
  advise, technical assistance and on-the-job
  training
• OECD and SORS on PPP and NOE

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EXISTING SITUATION UPDATE andCO-ORDINATION NEEDS

• World Bank, the Italian Government, UNDP and DFID
  (UK)
• Support for the Design, Implementation and
  Analysis of Household Surveys
• - World Bank and DFID, LSMS and 3 waves of panel
  surveys
• - Italian Government and ISTAT, the Household
  Budget Survey (HBS) and consumer price indices
• - UNDP, the Labour Force Survey (LFS)
• World Bank LSMS, advice and training in various
  areas, especially System of National Accounts
  (SNA) methodology, and a Master Plan for the
  development of BiH statistics, and National
  Accounts
• DFID, LSMS and waves of panel surveys
• Economic Policy Planning Unit (EPPU)
• Statistics Sweden and SIDA regional projects in
  the Balkans

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1. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

• National accounts in BiH have serious
  shortcomings, namely regarding the coverage of
  non-observed economy and the absence of
  expenditure-side GDP estimates
• A first output will be the assessment of existing
  data sources, methodology used, user needs
  requirements and recommendations for improvements
• Second output is the setting up of a Master plan
  for the development of National Accounts
• Identification of immediate measures to be taken
  in order to promptly improve key NA indicators
  (quick fixes)
• Structural improvement to GDP estimates on the
  production side and preliminary GDP estimate on
  the expenditure side

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2. BUSINESS REGISTERS

• Existing Business Registers do not allow proper
  macro-economic analysis as their coverage and
  updating are not satisfactory.
• A plan will have to be developed to include
  activities, timing and resources needed
• Design of a logical and physical structure of the
  BR and development of the related IT tools
• Feasibility study on the ways to fill in the
  business register with preliminary data
• Technical assistance will be provided for the
  design and implementation of survey if required

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3. BUSINESS STATISTICS

• Poor business statistics is due to the absence of
  a developed business register and to the uneven
  application of methodologies in the production of
  short-term indicators among which industrial
  production indices.
• Outputs will be the design and the implementation
  of a survey on large and medium sized
  enterprises and a pilot survey on a selection of
  small enterprises.
• An other output will be the design and
  implementation of surveys necessary to calculate
  producer price indices for wholesale trade and
  industry
• Additional output covers the design and
  implementation of surveys to collect data needed
  for the calculation of indices for the monthly
  volume of production in construction, industry
  and trade.

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4. EXTERNAL TRADE STATISTICS

• Improvements need to be achieved in the quality
  of external trade data and in the details of
  breakdowns and indices to be produced.
• The introduction of ASYCUDA software in 2005
  should facilitate the data transmission in terms
  of quality and timeliness.
• One output will be updated classifications and
  availability of additional indices with greater
  details
• Improved data quality and streamlined
  transmission of data.

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5. STRENGTHENING THE INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY FOR
BiH STATISTICS

• Problems addressed are lack of coordination
  between the 3 institutes, insufficient experience
  of the staff in the use of harmonised methods and
  low profile of statistics.
• One output will be an ICT development plan
  including a list of priorities for short-term ICT
  acquisition
• Better trained staff in all components of the
  programme through workshops, hands-on training
  and study visits
• An other output will be a higher profile of
  statistics in BiH to be achieved through advice
  for publication and dissemination of statistics.

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6. AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

• Agriculture is an important economic sector in
  BiH, its contribution to the GDP should be better
  estimated.
• As outputs, BiH should benefit from transfer of
  know-how and experience in agricultural prices
  and economic accounts for agriculture.
• An other output will be the progressive
  setting-up of economic accounts for agriculture.

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7. FINANCIAL SECTOR STATISTICS

• Some components of financial sector are not
  covered by statistics.
• The first output will be the assessment of
  available data sources
• In coordination with other producers of
  statistics in this area (CBBH), an output will be
  the design and implementation of pilot surveys if
  relevant in order to compile at least three
  missing components of the financial sector.
• Recommendations will be made on how to improve
  this sector.

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INPUTS

• The fiche gives an indication of the minimum
  expected human resources input required to reach
  the mandatory results equivalent to-1,290
  experts/days for the long-term advisors- 531
  experts/days of medium and short-term experts
• Additional human resources input will be required
  for backstopping, administration and financial
  management, as well as for the appropriate
  coordination with the EC and all the other
  related projects and institutions
• The eventual joint analysis of the activities to
  be undertaken to reach the mandatory results, at
  the base of the drafting of the Work plan, will
  bring a detailed and precise identification of
  activities needed and timeframe.

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PARTNERS EXPERTISE

• ISTAT provision of TA to BiH since 1996,
  thorough knowledge of the BiH statistical system,
  experience in cooperation in other countries of
  the region (twinning in Albania and Romania,
  grant to Serbia and Montenegro).
• Statistics Denmark 2001 and 2003 CARDS twinning
  programmes in Croatia with similar components
• SORS group leader of the OECD/Eurostat project
  on purchasing power parities (PPPs)
• HCSO leader for agriculture in ISTAT twinning
  in Albania
• All proposed partners have experience of working
  together
• Short-term expertise within each component will
  be provided from the projects partners as needed
• Technical coordination of each component has been
  assigned to one project partner

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IMPLEMENTATION PROCEDURES

• If we are asked to proceed, ISTAT will sign a
  contract with the EC, and will be responsible to
  the EC also for the other partners
• In turn, ISTAT will sign a Partnership Agreement
  with every partner, establishing Twinning
  implementation rules, administrative and
  financial procedures, communication and reporting
  principles
• Activities allocated to each partner are derived
  directly from the Work plan and corresponding
  financial resources from the budget
• On the basis of the Partnership agreement, as
  soon as ISTAT receives the advance, the amount
  corresponding to each partner share is
  immediately transferred
• Proven mechanism

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SUSTAINABILITY

• Policy support, beyond direct results by
  component
• Implementation of the Statistical law, steps
  towards SAA requirements and BiH MIP 2005-2006
• Core values relevance of statistics produced
  (interaction with users), application of sound
  statistical principles (EU methods and
  standards), high professional standards, trust of
  providers (data confidentiality, minimum
  respondents burden)
• Good governance involvement of the Statistical
  Council, progressive independence of statistical
  institutions, good management of the three
  Statistical Institutes through the establishment
  of a sound planning system and effective resource
  management

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PROJECT LEADER

• In charge within ISTAT of the design,
  implementation and management of technical
  co-operation activities (with a project portfolio
  over 10 MEuro)
• Thorough project management and implementation
  skills
• In-depth knowledge of the BiH statistical system
• Experience in EU rules and procedures, service
  contracts, twinning and grants
• Political awareness and communication skills

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RESIDENT TWINNING ADVISOR

• Thorough experience in official statistics at
  senior level, both within a national statistical
  institute and in Eurostat
• Good knowledge of the particularities of a
  decentralised statistical system
• Broad experience in organising training courses
  and programmes in statistics
• Good knowledge of the European Statistical System
• Experience in the management of statistical
  cooperation projects
• Involved since 1997 in statistical cooperation
  with BiH
• Good interpersonal skills and ability to work
  under pressure
• On ISTATs payroll

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INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPERT

• Head of Office for International relations and EU
  affairs within SORS, and presently Chief Advisor
• Very good knowledge of EU procedures and
  statistical acquis communautaire
• Developed analytical skills
• In-depth experience in coordination issues with
  governmental institutions, EU and other
  international organisations, NSIs
• Sound drafting capacities, knowledge of the local
  language
• Acquainted with the statistical system of BiH

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PROJECT ASSISTANT

• In depth knowledge of the BiH statistical
  institutions
• Excellent cooperation and relationships with the
  beneficiary institutions
• Thorough knowledge of EU procedures and
  requirements
• Very good command of English language and
  drafting skills
• Experience as local programme manager for EU
  Statistical Project Phase I and ISTAT programme
  for the implementation of HBS and price statistics

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MEDIUM/SHORT TERM EXPERTS

• Component coordinators already identified
• CVs of many other short term experts already
  collected
• Complete list of short term experts to be
  included in the Work plan for approval
• Any change or substitution subject to approval by
  the EC Delegation
• Experts evaluation

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MANAGEMENT TOOLS

• Steering Committee
• Reports as required
• Monthly newsletter to ensure thorough continuous
  information sharing
• Visibility actions (media, internet,
  publications)
• Web space for documentation