NOAA-CIRES CDC GOALS

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Introduction
Drought Challenges and Opportunities
R. Dole, CDC Plus a cast of thousands
North Platte river, May 22, 2002 Mean flow - 1310
cfs, Observed - 0
Drought in Great Plains, ca. 1935
J. Laver, D. Lecomte, A. Kumar, T. Karl, J.
Lawrimore, R. Heim, R. Livezey, M. Brewer, C.
Nierenberg, J. Foster, H. Hill, N. Beller-Simms,
C. Woodhouse, R. Webb, K. Redmond, et al.
May 21, 2004
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Challenge Human Dimension
Fundamental Challenges of Drought Human/Environmen
tal Dimensions

• Droughts are not simply climate phenomena. They
  have profound social, environmental, and economic
  impacts. This vastly increases challenges to
  services.

1988 Drought
1980 Drought
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Challenge Communication
Fundamental Challenges of Drought Communication

• Definition There is no unique definition of
  drought.
• National Drought Policy Commission Drought is
• A persistent abnormal moisture deficiency
  having adverse impacts on vegetation, animals,
  and people.
• There are different drought types.
• Meteorological - Prolonged rainfall deficit
  compared to normal.
• Agricultural - Topsoil moisture deficit.
  Agricultural impacts.
• Hydrological - Surface or sub-surface water
  supply shortage.
• Typically, meteorological
  agricultural hydrological
• Same sequence for drought recovery.

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Challenge Diverse time scales

Fundamental Challenges of Drought Diverse time
scales Droughts span an enormous range
of time scales, from short-term flash droughts
that can have major agricultural impacts to
multi-year or even decadal droughts (1930s,
1950s, etc.) Paleoclimate evidence suggests that
in the last 1000 years parts of the U.S. have
experienced mega-droughts that persisted for
decades.
Droughts

• Other climate modes

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Example Paleoclimate evidence
Drought evidence in Paleoclimate Records (from
NCDC Paleoclimate Branch website)
From tree ring Records - NM
From salinity estimates - Moon Lake, ND
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Strategic Challenges
Strategic Challenges

• Governmental entities are moving from simply
  responding to droughts to more proactive
  approaches.
• The U.S. is moving toward a more proactive
  approaches to anticipating and managing droughts.
  This has important implications for future NOAA
  climate services --
• Droughts have profound national and global
  implications.
• Severe and sustained droughts can lead to legal
  and political conflicts. For example, prolonged
  drought in the U.S. Southwest and northern Mexico
  is creating toward conflicts about shared water
  rights.
• Demands for scientifically-based drought
  information are increasing.
• The needs for drought information now extend
  beyond traditional drought-sensitive sectors such
  as agriculture and water resource management.
  There are increasing needs for drought
  information to inform critical policy and
  infrastructure decisions, and increasing concerns
  about the potential impacts of human-induced
  climate change on future water supply.

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Opportunities
And Opportunities

• NOAA has tremendous scientific and service
  capabilities related to drought. We have
  developed significant cooperation across lines to
  address drought challenges, from drought
  monitoring to planning and cooperation with the
  Western Governors Association for a National
  Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
• Beyond NIDIS, there are numerous other national
  and international drivers that reinforce the
  needs for improved drought monitoring,
  prediction, and information services. Several of
  these will be discussed later. They include
• CCSP - extreme events and regional decisional
  support.
• CENR - grand challenges for the next decade
  (extreme events/drought).
• Pending drought legislation in the House and
  Senate.
• GEO - improved observing systems for decision
  support.
• Other international - North American and
  International Drought monitors.
• Without question, there are major opportunities
  for NOAA to contribute in the above areas. Also
  without question, the provision of drought
  information will be a major part of NOAAs future
  climate services.

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Drought in the West - Intro
A Specific Example Drought in the West

• The western drought is a hydrologic drought.
• This is a sustained drought. It has developed
  over several years.
• This is a large-scale drought. It affects much of
  the western U.S.
• This is a severe drought - at least by modern
  historical terms.
• This drought is attracting heavy media attention,
  including from major national media outlets.
• The drought is raising grave management concerns.
• There is discussion of the possibility for the
  first-ever call on the
• Colorado River under the terms of the Colorado
  River Compact.

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Severe Hydrologic Shortages

• Lake Powell is at 42 capacity
• Lake levels have dropped 120 feet
• Reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 62
  of capacity
• Net flow of water for WY 2004 to date is 58 of
  average.

Lake Powell Water Level (ft)
Glen Canyon Dam
Filled1980
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Dillon Reservoir(Colorado) 2002
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Potential Western water supply crises and
conflicts by 2025 (USBR)
US Bureau of Reclamation analysis of potential
water supply crises and conflicts by the year
2025 based on a combination of technical and
other factors, including population trends and
potential endangered species needs for
water. Note There is an underlying assumption
of a statistically stationary climate.
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Overview of NOAA Drought Products
Overview of NOAA Drought Products
There are numerous NOAA drought products
available, which are very heavily used. Only a
few examples will be shown here, to serve as
updates on the current situation and to provide a
basis to discuss challenges and opportunities for
NOAA climate services. There is an excellent
central NOAA website available for those
interested http//www.drought.noaa.gov/ This
drought information center contains links to
sites across NOAA that provide real-time
information as well as background materials on
drought.
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U.S. Drought Monitor.
U.S. Drought Monitor Derived by synthesizing
various information sources (NOAA leads CPC,
NCDC. With DOA and NDMC)
Agricultural (A), hydrological (H)
designate primary impacts (drought types). There
are manifold indirect impacts as well, e.g., on
recreation, energy production, water quality,
fire risk, air quality, ecosystems, endangered
species.
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Drought Outlook
NOAA Drought Outlook (CPC)
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Paleoclimate Products
Paleoclimate Products (NCDC-Paleoclimate Branch)

• Gridded Reconstructions of Drought (PSDI), Cook
  et al. 1999
• Annual maps and grid point time series from
  reconstructed (1700-1978) and instrumental
  (1900-1995) data, available online.
• Updated version soon to be released, expanded to
  North America, back to AD 800 (many areas),
  reconstructions are integrated with instrumental
  data to up to 1999.
• Recently funded, living blended drought
  reconstructions will be updated with instrumental
  data for nearly real time assessments of
  current and developing drought in a long-term
  context.

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Applications of Paleoclimate data

• Is the Colorado River Compact based on a period
  of anomalous moisture? Is the current drought,
  which has drawn Lake Powell down to less than
  half its capacity, an unusual event? The
  Colorado River at Lees Ferry reconstruction can
  answer the first question (Yes), but it ends in
  1964. There are plans to update this
  reconstruction and others for the Colorado River
  basin to 1999 or later.
• What measures are required to bring groundwater
  pumping, which has driven groundwater to the
  lowest depths since pumping began in the San Luis
  Valley, in balance with inflows? Gauge records
  are too short to determine the long-term natural
  variability of droughts, which must be
  considered when evaluating the sustainability of
  the aquifers underlying the valley. Tree-ring
  reconstructions can provide information on
  long-term inflows.

Grand Canyon and Great Sand Dunes NPs
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Regional Climate Center Products

• The Western Region Climate Center (WRCC) in Reno
  is a tremendous resource for climate information
  relevant to the western drought. In addition to
  providing drought-related products through its
  website, WRCC personnel interact extensively with
  end users to address questions on drought and
  other related issues, such as wildfires.

• Some WRCC products
• Historical Climate Data
• Real-time monitoring products
• Current obs. and forecasts
• Educational pages
• Research products

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Regional Integrated Science and
Assessments(RISAs)
The RISAs provide a direct connection between
research and end users. They have a strong focus
on drought issues, how current climate products
are used and interpreted, and what are the needs
for next generation regional climate information
products.

• RISA research is
• User focused
• Interdisciplinary
• Place-based
• Considers multiple stressors
• Focuses on key regional issues
• Provides and assesses uses of
• climate information and products for regional
  decision support

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International Products and Linkages

• GEO Organized by Themes Including
• Climate
• Natural Hazards and Disasters
• Agriculture
• Water Resources
• Experimental Drought Monitor Product
• Mexico
• Canada
• Issues Related to Operational Product
• Observation Systems
• Data Timeliness Quality
• Drought Indices/Tools
• Coordination Among Principals
• Potential for Early GEO Success
• International October Meeting
• Existing/Planned Products

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NOAA Drought-related Research

• What are potential sources for drought
  predictability?
• What are observed climate trends, and can their
  causes be identified?
• What are projections for future climate change,
  and what is our confidence in such projections?
• How are climate products now used, what are
  their strengths and limitations, and how can
  these products be improved or new products be
  developed that will better serve the needs of the
  public and decision-makers?
• Drought-related research is being carried out a
  several institutions, and also supported at OGP,
  especially through water-cycle research in the
  Climate Prediction Program for the Americas
  (CPPA), with a summertime precipitation focus in
  the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME).

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Effects of ENSO on SW U.S. Precipitation

• Climate forecasts are intrinsically probability
  forecasts.
• Beyond a few weeks the major source for
  predictive skill comes from
• ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific-Indian
  Oceans.

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What are Observed Western Climate Trends?
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Observed and modeled SW winter temperature trends
Observed trends are consistent with trends
obtained in climate models forced by observed GHG
changes. However, models forced by observed SST
over this period also show warming, so both
anthropogenic and natural factors are likely
contributing.
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Western U.S. Streamflow Trends
From Stewart, Cayan, and Dettinger (2004)
There is a marked trend toward an earlier melt
out and earlier peak flows throughout almost all
of the West, consistent with a winter warming
trend. Such warming increases evaporation,
extends the growing season, and likely also
increases the demand for water resources.
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U.S. West climate trends projectionsfrom
transient-forced runs (8 models, 12 runs)
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Projected temperature and precipitation trends
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NIDIS Update

• National Drought Preparedness Act of 2004
• Establishes a permanent Drought Council
• Authorizes a Drought Fund
• Gives the lead for implementing the NIDIS to
  DOC/NOAA
• NIDIS Recommendations
• Establish NIDIS
• Establish data needs and integration tools -
  integrate existing networks, determine gaps
• Research Needs . to improve the forecasting of
  short- and long-term drought conditions, to make
  the forecasts more useful and timely, and to
  establish priorities based on the potential to
  reduce drought impacts.
• Facilitate Drought Preparedness Programs
• Enhance Interactions and Education

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Key issues and questions

• In the near-term, should NOAA develop a more
  integrated strategy in anticipation of emerging
  issues related to the western U.S. drought?
• How will NOAA respond to the NIDIS challenge?
• There has been good collaboration within NOAA and
  with other agencies on the drought problem.
  However, many of the collaborations are ad hoc
  and could be better developed. How will NOAA
  develop a more integrated strategy so that we are
  providing even better drought information
  services than we do now?

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The End
The End