Climate Change and Urban Areas: USUK Dialogue

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Climate Change and Urban Areas US-UK Dialogue

• Margaret Leinen
• Asst. Director for Geosciences
• US National Science Foundation
• Vice-chair, US Climate Change Science Program

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• Brief update of US Climate Change Science Program
• NSF and climate change/urban science

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Climate Science Goals

• Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes
  to Climate
• Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment
• Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future
  Climate Changes
• Understand Sensitivity Adaptability of Natural
  Manmade Ecosystems
• Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and
  Opportunities

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CCSP Strategic Plan

• Requested and approved by the White House
• Endorsed by the 13 participating agencies
• Developed with broad scientific input
• Reviewed by the National Research Council
• Released July 2003 202 pgs.

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CCSP themes

• Atmospheric chemistry
• Climate change and variability
• Global carbon cycle
• Global water cycle
• Ecosystems
• Land use/land cover change
• Human contributions and responses

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Climate Change Science Program FY06/07

• Budget has continued at 1.8B US/year
• Synthesis and assessment an important addition to
  research

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Overview of CCSP Decision Support Approaches

• 1. Conducting syntheses and assessments
• 2. Supporting adaptive management and planning
• 3. Developing methods to support climate change
  policymaking

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General CCSP Principles for Decision Support

• Analyses structured around specific questions
• Early and continuing involvement of stakeholders
• Explicit treatment of uncertainties in the
  context of application
• Transparent public review of analysis questions,
  methods, and draft results
• Evaluation of ongoing CCSP analyses and
  incorporation of lessons learned

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1. Assessments

• IPCC
• 120 U.S. scientists are IPCC authors 15 are
  Review Editors
• US Co-Chairs and Hosts IPCC WG I
• WMO/UNEP Ozone assessments
• Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Synthesis and Assessment Products

• Current evaluations of the science foundation for
  21 topics
• Designed to be used for informing public debate,
  policy, and operational decisions, and for
  defining and setting the future direction and
  priorities of the program
• Individual agencies lead preparation of each
  product
• Process includes expert and public reviews that
  meet government transparency and data quality
  requirements

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Examples of science syntheses

• Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere steps
  for understanding and reconciling differences (to
  be published in 2 months)
• Past climate variability and change in the Arctic
  and at high latitudes (within a year)
• Reanalyses of historical climate data for key
  atmospheric features (2 years)

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Examples of human dimensions assessments

• Uses and limitations of observations, data,
  forecasts, and other projections in decision
  support for selected sectors and regions (within
  a year)
• Best-practice approaches to characterize,
  communicate, and incorporate scientific
  uncertainty in decision-making (within a year)

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• Details of all syntheses and assessments
• www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/

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2 Support for Adaptive Management
and Planning

• Managing climate-sensitive resources and sectors
  to adjust to variability and change in climate
  and other conditions by integrating knowledge
  with practice

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Example Wildfire Management
National Seasonal Assessment Workshop
A multi-agency collaboration that produces
forecasts and maps of fire potential and enables
participants to plan for the coming fire seasons.

Interdisciplinary initiative on the interactions
among wildfire, climate and society Develops
models andother support tools Scenario
generation Fire risk assessment
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3 Methods to Support Climate Change
Policymaking
Example MIT Integrated Assessment Approach

• Support evaluation of laws, regulations or other
  public actions
• CCSP is supporting research to
• Develop models and analytical frameworks to
  support integrated evaluations, and
• Conduct a limited number of case studies
  (comparative evaluation of responses)

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The National Science Foundation and the science
of urban areas and climate change
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• NSF focus is on integrating human/urban elements
  with physical/biological elements in integrated
  studies
• Additional focus on long term observation and
  research to understand the effects of climate and
  land use change

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• NSF approach is
• Provide opportunities for coupling human and
  natural systems research
• Dynamics of Coupled Human and Natural Systems

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Examples of climate change/urban awards in
Dynamics of Coupled Human and Natural Systems

• Complex Interactions Among Urban Climate, Air
  Quality, and Adaptive-Reactive Human Response, D.
  Sailor, et al., Portland State University
• Neighborhood Ecosystems Human-Climate
  Interactions in a Desert Metropolis, S. Harlan,
  et al., Arizona State Univ.

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We view land use as a driver of climate change
and fund in that area as well

• Spatial Land-Use Change and Ecological Effects at
  the Rural-Urban Interface Agent-Based Modeling
  and Evaluation of Alternative Policies and
  Interventions, S. Pickett, et al., Institute for
  Ecosystem Studies
• Feedbacks Between Complex Ecological and Social
  Models Urban Landscape Structure, Nitrogen Flux,
  Vegetation Management, and Adoption of Design
  Scenarios, S. Pickett, et al., Institute for
  Ecosystem Studies

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• NSF approach is
• Provide opportunities for coupling human and
  natural systems research
• Dynamics of Coupled Human and Natural Systems
• Provide opportunities for decision support
  research in social/behavior/economic directorate

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Decision support research in urban areas

• Holocene Climate and Anthropogenic Changes from
  Long Island Sound, NY, C. Gonzales-McHugh, City
  University of New York
• Decision Center for a Desert City The Science
  and Policy of Climate Uncertainty, P. Gober, et
  al., Arizona State University

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• NSF approach is
• Provide opportunities for coupling human and
  natural systems research
• Dynamics of Coupled Human and Natural Systems
• Provide opportunities for decision support
  research in social/behavior/economic directorate
• Long term ecological research on urban areas
  highlights response to climate change

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Urban Long Term Ecological Research

• Phoenix, Arizona
• Baltimore, Maryland

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National Ecological Observing Network (NEON)
NEON is designed as a research platform to
advance ecological theory through long term
observation of the urban/managed/wild components
of the ecosystems of the US
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NEON National Ecological Observation Network

• A continental research platform to understand the
  biosphere at regional to continental scales,
  quantify the strong and weak forces regulating
  these systems, and predict the consequences of
  climate and land use change for the biosphere

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• Key questions that NEON seeks to address include
• How are ecological systems affected by changes
  in land use and climate across a range of
  spatial-temporal scales?
• How do the patterns and movement of genes and
  organisms across the continent affect
  biodiversity and the spread of infectious
  diseases and invasive species?

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National Ecological Observing Network (NEON)
NEON is designed as a research platform to
advance ecological theory through long term
observation of the urban/managed/wild components
of the ecosystems of the US