On updating The International Antarctic Weather Forecasting Handbook

1
On updating The International Antarctic Weather
Forecasting Handbook

• Steve Pendlebury
• Neil Adams
• John Turner

2
Overview

• Rationale behind an update
• Scope
• Contributions so far
• Contributions still on way?
• Status of input unknown

3
Rationale (1)

• 10 years since the Handbook
• new developments
• new Antarctic stations
• advances have in technology
• improved understanding of climate and weather
• NWP continues its rapid improvement
• IPY 2007-08 is underway

4
Scope (1)

• Climate, Climate variability and Climate change
• well-rounded forecaster cannot afford to ignore
  climate aspects
• as ambassadors for their trade, forecasters
  need to be across climate change and
  teleconnections
• new work

5
Scope (2)

• Advances in Observation Systems
• advances in in-situ and remote sensing
  observation systems, (especially with
  satellite-borne sensors)
• overview of recent missions/sensors
• new installations
• national networks.

6
Scope (3)

• NWP models have improved
• Regional climate models
• AMPS
• ENSEMBLES
• Globals eg ECMWF

7
Scope (4)

• Forecasting requirements for new stations /or
  stations not covered in the original handbook, or
  updates to existing station information
• omitted stations eg Amsterdam Island
• interests not properly covered eg Sweden Brazil
• new stations eg Princess Elisabeth
• developments at other stations eg HobartCasey
  Airlink

8
Scope (5)

• New requirements cont
• sea ice eg developments in sea ice
  analysis/prediction
• updated communications methods eg Iridium
• others eg Antarctic Tourism

9
Scope (6)

• Key Appendices
• an updated list of stations and AWS
• updated climate tables
• a list of relevant web resources

10
Contributions so far (1)

• Teleconnections Andrew Carleton
• Concise overview concentrating the big four
• Semi-Annual Oscillation
• Southern Annular Mode
• El Niño Southern Oscillation
• Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW)
• Bunch of references
• Forecaster will have a contemporary overview and
  pointers where to go for more info!

11
Contributions so far (2)

• Behaviour of Southern Ocean cyclones Ian
  Simmonds
• Data sets and techniques
• Cyclone tracks and climatology
• Trends and variability in cyclone behaviour
• Extensive reference list

12
Contributions so far (3)
Simmonds cont 7 figures for summer/winter eg
Mean cyclone depth (in units of hPa) in summer in
the NCEP2 re-analysis
13
Contributions so far (4)

• Future climate change Tom Bracegirdle
• Based on IPCC4
• climate models
• temperature
• sea ice
• precipitation
• near-surface winds
• Might need a sobering view from Dave Bromwich?

14
Contributions so far (5)

• READER Project Steve Colwell
• a clear account of the READER Database
• READER (REference Antarctic Data for
  Environmental Research) is a project of the
  Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR
  http//www.scar.org/) and encompasses Met READER,
  Ice READER and Southern Ocean READER.

15
Contributions so far (6)

• US data sources/network Shelley Knuth
• The Antarctic Meteorological Research Center
  (AMRC), located at the University of
  Wisconsin-Madison, is the primary meteorological
  data repository for the United States Antarctic
  Program (USAP).
• In addition to the AMRC, there are several
  locations with various other Antarctic
  meteorological datasets available.
• In addition, the British Antarctic Survey (BAS)
  has put together a collection of climatological,
  ozone, surface temperature, upper air, and sodar
  data for the Antarctic
• The Russian and Australian Antarctic programs
  also have available data from.

16
Contributions so far (7)
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Contributions so far (8)

• Atmospheric chemistry
• Alexander Mangold Belgiums chemistry RD work
• Ralf Brauner et al. Germanys ozone work

18
Contributions so far (9)

• Australian NWP Neil Adams

19
Contributions so far (10)

• US NWP Jordan Powers

20
Contributions so far (11)

• Forecasting requirements for new stations /or
  stations not covered in the original handbook or
  updates to existing station information
• Australia (Neil Adams)
• Finland (Timo Vihma)
• France (Christian Lafayne)
• Germany (Ralf Brauner et al)
• Italy (Roberto Bove)

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Contributions so far (12)

• Forecasting requirements cont
• New Zealand (Sylvia Nichol)
• Norway (Eirik Førland)
• Spain (Antonio Labajo)
• Sweden (Swedish Polar Secretariat)
• US (Jordan Powers)
• while for South Africa and China Johan Stander
  and Bian Lingen have, respectively, advised no
  changes are needed (Dome A developments
  notwithstanding).

22
Contributions so far (13)

• Australia (Neil Adams)
• Describes the Aust. Antarctic Air Transport System

23
Contributions so far (14)

• Finland (Timo Vihma)
• oooops
• arrived just before I came
• forgot to make a copy

24
Contributions so far (15)

• France (Christian Lafayne)
• A very comprehensive update
• Added info. on Amsterdam
• Updates on
• Crozet Islands
• Kerguelen Islands
• Dumont dUrville station

25
Contributions so far (16)

• Germany (Ralf Brauner et al)
• A very comprehensive update

26
Contributions so far (17)
Google Earth overlay depicting any upper air
sounding ever performed from Polarstern. Each dot
is a link to the measured data retrievable via
the Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Environmental Data PANGAEA (http//www.pangaea.de/
)
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Contributions so far (18)

• Italy (Roberto Bove)
• A very comprehensive update
• Many apologies another one I seem to have left
  at home

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Contributions so far (19)

• New Zealand (Sylvia Nichol)
• A brief overview given of NZz interests (Scott
  Base is so close to McMurdo that extra is
  redundant), inc
• NZ doesn't do any operational forecasting in the
  Antarctic or the sub-Antarctic. However it does
  do atmospheric research and climate recording at
  Scott Base and climate recording at Campbell
  Island.

29
Contributions so far (20)

• Norway (Eirik Førland)
• A useful update on Troll
• The Norwegian Meteorological Institute issues
  updated ECMWF-based weather forecasts (1h 8
  days) as well as climate statistics for Troll in
  Antarctica and other sites in Antarctica at
  http//www.yr.no/place/Antarctic/

30
Contributions so far (21)
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Contributions so far (22)

• Spain (Antonio Labajo)
• Comprehensive update of Spains stations on South
  Shetland Islands

32
Contributions so far (23)

• Sweden (Swedish Polar Secretariat)
• Might need some extra info.

33
Contributions so far (24)

• US (Jordan Powers)
• A succinct update of the US eg
• The weather forecasting is done at two
  facilities the SPAWAR Remote Operations Facility
  in Charleston, South Carolina, and at McMurdo
  Station. The larger contingent of forecasters
  operates out of the Remote Operations Facility
  (ROF). The ROF issues Terminal Aerodrome
  Forecasts (TAFs) for Amundsen-Scott Station and
  other U.S. deep-field camps on the Ice

34
Contributions still in the mail? (1)

• The following input have been agreed but still to
  be received
• the role expected outcomes of IPY 2007-08
• developments in sea ice observation, analysis,
  and prediction
• developments in the Australian AWS network
• role of the Southern Ocean in Antarctic weather
  climate

35
Contributions still in the mail? (2)

• a summary on self organising maps (SOMs) as a new
  forecasting background tool
• update on volcanic ash services
• update in relation to COMNAPs requirements
• advice in relation to IAATOs requirements

36
Contributions still in the mail? (3)

• update of information for stations of
• Brazil
• Chile
• Russian Federation
• South Korea
• United Kingdom.
• update in relation to weather at Patriot Hills

37
Contributions status unknown (1)

• The following input have been sought but status
  of request is not known
• update on remote sensing
• update on surface wind systems
• update on ozone (overview)/GTS/new surface
  observations
• update on measurement of snow accumulation

38
Contributions status unknown (2)

• update of information for
• Argentina
• India
• Japan
• Peru
• Poland
• The Netherlands
• Ukraine
• Uruguay

39
Here endeth this session
Time to change into a co-Chairperson talk about
your views on the above and the way ahead