From Ideas to Action: Clean Energy Solutions for Asia that Address Climate Change Peter du Pont, PhD

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From Ideas to ActionClean Energy Solutions for
Asiathat Address Climate Change Peter du Pont,
PhD, Chief of Party,ECO-Asia Clean Development
and Climate ProgramPrepared for International
Conference onAsias Emerging Response to Climate
ChangeBangkok, Thailand23 November 2007
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Overview

• From Ideas to Action regional analysis of clean
  energy options
• Overview of Thailand Country Reporty
• Overview of new regional program on clean energy

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ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program
Geographic Coverage

• China
• India
• Indonesia
• Philippines
• Thailand
• Vietnam

These 6 countries account for 96 of the GDP of
Asias developing countries
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USAID-funded review of clean energy priorities in
Asia

• Objectives
• Identify clean energy priorities technologies,
  sectors, and initiatives
• Identify opportunities for regional action
• Methodology
• organized listening tours with 220 key energy
  stakeholders in the 6 countries
• researched and prepared more than 300 profiles on
  clean energy institutions, policies, programs
• prepared in-depth country reports on the clean
  energy opportunities in the 6 countries

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Comparative Evaluation of Fuel Options
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• Supply-Side Energy
• Coal (CCT and carbon storage)
• Petroleum
• Natural Gas (incl. methane capture)
• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar, small hydro,
  geothermal, biofuels)
• Nuclear
• Energy Efficiency
• Power generation and transmission efficiency
• End-use efficiency (buildings, appliances,
  lighting, industry, transport, etc.)

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DEMAND DRIVERSEconomic growth and increased
incomes are leading to large increases in energy
demand
Source APERC 2006
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UNTAPPED EFFICIENCYBut regional experience shows
significant potential for efficiency improvements
Efficiency gains in Korean appliances 1993 to
2000
Source Sun-Keun Lee, 2001
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OIL AND ENERGY SECURITYSoutheast Asia will
import 70 of its oil by 2030
Imported Oil as Share of Total Oil Consumption
Source APEC 2006
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COAL RELIANCE (1)Coal is the fuel of choice
for the next 15-20 years to meet demand
Primary Energy Mix for Asian Countries, 1980 to
2005
Hydro
The share of primary energy from coal has risen
from 43 in 1980, to 48 in 2005, and is
projected to reach 51 in 2030.
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Note This data includes all of Asia, not just
developing Asia
Source BP Statistics 2006
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COAL RELIANCE (2)Share of coal increasing
dramatically in India, ASEAN
Note Thailand data are for 2021, not 2030
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Criteria pollutant levels in Asian megacities
LOCAL AIR POLLUTIONFossil Fuels Lead to High
Particulate Levels
Local air pollution has been linked to more than
500,000 premature deaths annually in Asia (WHO)
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INCREASING CO2 EMISSIONS Developing Asias CO2
Emissions Will Increase 4-Fold
Current 26 billion metric tons CO2
2030 40 billion metric tons CO2
Source APERC, TERI
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Projected CO2 Emissions by Sector (2002 - 2030)
ELECTRICITY IS MAJOR SOURCEMore than half of CO2
emissions from power plants
Source APERC, TERI
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What is the Answer? There is no Single Silver
Bullet

• Coal
• Expected nearly 4-fold increase in consumption by
  2030, will lead to 13 billion metric tons of
  annual CO2 by 2030
• Petroleum
• Import dependency to increase drastically
  (exporters turn into importers others will
  import 70-90 of their needs)
• Natural Gas
• By 2030, countries will import between 40-75
  percent of their needs.
• Nuclear
• Even with massive investment, nuclear projected
  to supply only approx. 4-8 of primary energy
  needs by 2030 (China, India, Thailand, and
  Vietnam)
• Renewable Sources
• Even with major expansion, current estimates
  project renewables to account for 5-10 of future
  energy needs by 2030

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Estimated energy delivery costs by clean energy
type
Typical cost of avoided electricity
generation (about 6-7 US cents/kWh)
The least cost options are energy efficiency,
and they cost ¼ to ½ as much as building a new
power plant
Sources Compiled from Sims et al, 2003 Sawin
2004 LBNL, 2005 and IEA, 2006
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Costs of carbon reductions by clean energy option
A number of options can reduce CO2 emissions at
no net cost
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Ranking of clean energy options for regional
cooperation
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Top 6 priority clean energy technologies and
sectors for regional cooperation

• Energy-efficient lighting and appliances
• Clean coal technologies
• Renewable energy technologies
• (esp. onshore wind energy and biomass-fired
  electricity)
• Energy-efficiency in the transport sector
• Biofuels for transportation
• Methane capture

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Implementing Just These Options Can Reduce Future
Emissions from Asias Developing Economies by 25
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Overview of Thailand Country Report
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Thailand Primary Energy Demand by Sources
Renewables (8)
Hydro (0.3)
Gas (25)
Oil (40)
Coal (25)
Source APERC, 2006
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Forecast Electricity Supply by Fuel Type
Source EGAT PDP (4 June 2007)
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Share of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Sector
Residential (1)

Transport (26)
Industry (28)
Transformation other than electricity (5)
Electricity Generation (40)
Note no data available for commercial
Source APERC, 2006
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Vehicular-Related Emission of PM in
Bangkok(kilotons of PM10)
Source ADB, 2006
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Successful Implementation of DSM in Thailand
Source DSM in Thailand The EGAT Experience.
Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, DSM Planning
Division, Electricity Generating Authority of
Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy
Efficiency in Power Distribution and End Use
Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006
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Thailand Benchmarked Against U.S.
Utilities(Cumulative Annual Energy Savings as a
Percentage of Annual Utility Energy Sales)
Source EGAT data for Thailand. U.S. data from
ACEEE. A Nationwide Assessment of Utility Sector
Energy Efficiency. August 2006.
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Cost Comparison of Clean Energy Options
Demand Side Measures
Supply Side Measures
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Clean Energy Potential (1 of 2)

• Up grade standards for the labeled appliances as
  well as to add more appliances such as hot water
  pot and freezer
• Scale up EE programs and incentive for industry
• Building energy codes
• The government plans to utilize more RE for heat
  and power, up to 19 of TPES in 2016
• Bio-fuels and waste to energy
• Improve efficiency of existing power plants by
  using CHP
• Financing through tax incentive

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Clean Energy Potential (2 of 2)

• EE and DSM programs are the most cost-effective
• Labeling scheme for energy consumption of new
  vehicles
• Clean coal technology but has yet be accepted by
  the public
• Nuclear power is being considered as alternative
  source of power in order to decrease reliance on
  NG and to reduce GHG

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Need for GHG Reporting Capacity Building

• Bureau of Energy Research, DEDE, is responsible
  for estimation of air pollutant emission (CO2,
  CO, NOx, CH4 and SO2) from energy consumption
  based on IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories
• The Climate Change Coordinating unit is
  responsible for the overall GHG inventories.
• Needs include such as development of coefficient
  values to calculate GHG of each activity, e.g.,
  rice and pig farming policy planning guideline
  on how to mitigate GHG, e.g., if a lot of methane
  from rice farming is a concern, then, how would
  the Ministry of Agriculture plan for rice farming
  area?

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The USAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate
Program
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ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

• Findings of the Regional Analysis
• A number of viable, low-cost options are ready
  for immediate implementation
• Implementation often limited due to lack of
  awareness, or technical, institutional, and
  financial barriers
• Program Objective
• Promote market transformation toward clean energy
  development in Asia
• Activities
• increase policy and market incentives
• mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing
• share knowledge to accelerate deployment

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ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

• Promotes Market Transformation for Clean Energy
  Development in Asia
• Increase policy and market incentives
• Mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing
• Share best practices and knowledge to accelerate
  deployment
• Promotes Partnerships and Improves Regional
  Cooperation
• Leverage resources of key regional partners
  APP, ADB, ASEAN, and APEC
• Supports National Commitments
• Ensure commitments and ownership at national
  level
• Address national clean energy needs and
  priorities
• Geographic Scope China, India, Indonesia,
  Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam

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Program Areas and Outcomes
Clean Development and Climate Change
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Thank You!