Riding the IFPSGFE into the Future of Forecasting

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Riding the IFPS/GFE into the Future of
Forecasting

• Lynn Maximuk
• MIC WFO Pleasant Hill, MO

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IT Has Changed Our Forecast World

• The NWS primary product is information not text
  messages Wholesale vs Retail
• Partners and customers demand more of the most
  current information possible, available when
  they want it
• If forecasters cant feed the IT machines, model
  data is a cost efficient alternative

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What is the NDFD?
NDFD as of April 2002
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NDFD as of 9/5/02
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NDFD Grids

• Multiple owners Time and Space
• WFOs
• National Centers HPC/SPC/CPC/AWC/NHC etc.
• NWS product not local office product
• Your office produces a piece of the product
• Meteorological consistency a must
• If we cant do it some one else will
• One stop shopping

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How Can Customers Get It?

• National Data Base
• Updated hourly
• Available Oct 2002
• Accessed from NDFD servers via FTP

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New Information SuiteLife Beyond the Zones

• DIGITAL
• DETAILED
• DISPLAYABLE
• ALWAYS CURRENT
• READY TO PULL

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Not the ZFPbut words too
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Detailed Hourly Forecast Information
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Graphical Detailed Look
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New World of Forecasting

• Use GFE/IFPS to paint meteorologically consistent
  picture of the weather for days 1-7
• Grids are the Thing! They drive legacy product
  updates
• Short Term forecaster in grids 24 hours a day
• Multiple forecasters may be in data base as
  dictated by weather
• Forecast collaboration rather than coordination

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Always Current Digital Data Base

• Event Driven Updates
• National, regional and local
• Customer/partner pull versus push
• Allocation of staffing shift times - overlap
• Issuance times?

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Major Changes That Must Be Addressed

• Significant changes to forecast process and
  product suite
• Working with, rather than looking at, model data
• How to produce an always current digital data
  base
• Collaboration/coordination
• Verification/Quality Assurance

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Forecast Process Changes

• Working with forecast grids instead of words
• New editing processes and tools
• Interaction with model data
• Temporal division of forecast responsibility

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Event Driven Updates

• Scheduled Issuances of legacy prods?
• No Updates always current NWS products you
  can count on
• Whats an event?
• New model guidance that changes thinking
• Dropping first period adding new day 7
• Local customer needs
• Observed weather doesnt match forecast

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Collaboration

• What tools are needed
• ISC Grids
• Chat capability
• Whiteboard/drawing capability
• FX-Connect AWIPS interactive chat/white board
• Voice communication meet-me calls
• What part of the NDFD does the WFO own? Ownership
  issues to address
• Meteorological consistency across boundaries
  versus personality
• Working as a team inter-office science sharing
  including NCEP centers

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ISC Grids
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ISC Grid Collaboration
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Chat Room Sample
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Verification/Quality Assurance

• Grid versus point verification
• Multiple forecasters working on data base
• Real time feedback
• What do we look at to determine quality and
  timeliness?

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Forecast Monitoring
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Re-analyze The Way Your Office Does Business
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Some Things To Look At

• Temporal workload distribution do your shift
  hours match workload
• Division of forecast responsibility
• Collaboration versus coordination
• How can our office get more meteorological
  information to our customers now!
• Product quality feedback to staff

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More Considerations

• We dont produce WFO xxx products, we produce
  part of the NWS product suite
• Dont sit there complaining get feedback into
  the stream through Regional channels
• Changes are coming faster than ever before is
  your staff ready to handle that?

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Shift Management Challenges

• The lead needs to Lead
• Time, data, and people resources must be managed
  each shift
• Everyones time is part of the forecast team pool
• Shift duties and professional development time
  are flexible

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Focus Must be Changed From Products to Providing
Information!
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Implementation Challenges
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Successful Implementation Depends Upon

• Communication of Digital Information Vision
• Provide Continuously Updated Detailed Information

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Implementation Support

• Identify problems and get solutions
• Reinforce vision regularly/repeatedly
• Encourage new ideas for information dissemination
• Outreach to customers (WCM involvement) is
  critical to new information service
• CHANGE new problems require new solutions

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Implementation Successes

• Knobology training on-going
• Forecasters thinking graphically
• Grids drive retail products
• Forecaster Team concept evolved
• Workload adjustments driven by forecasters
• Flexibility