If AGI does all the jobs, How will people get income?

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If AGI does all the jobs, How will people get
income?
James Albus, Ph.D. Senior Fellow Krasnow
Institute for Advanced Studies George Mason
University Founder and Chief (retired)
Intelligent Systems Division National Institute
of Standards and Technology James.Albus_at_gmail.com
http//www.James-Albus.org
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What Is Possible?
Human-Level machine intelligence can be achieved
within one to four decades.
The time frame depends on funding levels.
The science and technology will be available to
make it feasible.
Neuroscience how the brain actually works
Computational science how to build intelligent
systems
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In the Future
Intelligent machines will exhibit a degree of
self reproduction and evolution
. . . because the critical ingredients are the
same i.e., information and computational power
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The Implications are Enormous
Human level perception, reasoning,
decision-making, planning, and control on a
laptop will change everything
It will enable an explosion of productivity that
will improve quality of products and services,
reduce costs, and increase profits in every
sector.
. . . manufacturing, transportation,
construction, mining, health care, education,
national defense, energy production, and
environmental protection.
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What is Being Done?
NIH, NSF, DARPA, ARL, and ONR support research
in neuroscience, computer science, and
electronics
but this is not integrated or focused on
intelligence
and is not on the scale of big science (e.g.,
physics, astronomy, space exploration) or
important weapons systems (e.g., a new ship,
airplane, or missile)
Investment does not match potential benefit
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Decade of the Mind
A proposal for a 10 year national program to
Understand the Mechanisms of Mind funded at 400
million per year
Fourth symposium at Sandia National Labs Jan
14-15, 2009 Fifth symposium in Germany,
So far, just a proposal in the early stages of
making its way around Washington.
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Good News Bad News
If we are successful
The good news is It will benefit both producers
and consumers. It will create unprecedented
quantities of goods and services including many
health benefits.
The bad news is It will eliminate jobs and
drive down the value of human labor.
The gap between rich and poor will grow
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The Jobs Problem
Jobs are principal means of income for most
people. No job, no income.
In the past, new jobs have been created to
replace those lost.
May not hold true in the future of human-level
AGI. New jobs created will be specialized, not
mass employment.
Entry level jobs for the poor may disappear.
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The Wealth Distribution Problem
Capitalism is very efficient but unfettered it
tends toward monopoly and oligarchy
It is also unstable tends toward cycles of
boom and bust
Ownership of capital assets is concentrated in
hands of a small minority
Democracy requires a large educated middle class
with a reasonably secure source of income.
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The Solution
Broaden ownership of capital assets. Shift income
from jobs to ownership
Make everyone a capitalist
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The Possibilities are Great
Intelligent machines will enable the
production of goods and services in sufficient
quantities to eliminate poverty and usher in A
New Age of Abundance
Widespread ownership of the means of
production could bring A New World of Peace,
Prosperity, and Economic Justice
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Toward a New World of Peace, Prosperity, and
Economic Justice
by James S. Albus
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A world where no one is poor
and opportunities to grow rich are abundant!
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A world of Abundance where everyone has
Enough to eat
A decent place to live
A steady livable income
Good medical care
A good education
A safe neighborhood
A clean environment
A secure retirement
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This world does not exist, but it could!
We have the technology to create the wealth
required
For business, the problem is NOT in production --
but in attracting customers
Walk into any mall or supermarket, the shelves
are stuffed with products
Manufacturers would gladly produce more -- if
only there were more customers
We have the productive capacity to satisfy market
demand
Capitalism can expand productive
capacity whenever there is a market with buyers
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The Problem Lies in the Distribution of Income
If people dont have money, they cant buy what
they need.
2,800,000,000 humans live on less than 2 per
day 37,000,000 Americans live in poverty
These are potential customers If only they had
decent income
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The Problem Lies in the Distribution of Income
On the other hand some incomes exceed 100,000
per day
There is something wrong with a system
that creates this degree of disparity
Democracy cannot long survive such a wide
gap between rich and poor.
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The current system of income distribution
guarantees poverty
Most income is based on the economic value of
human labor
Globalization and automation are driving down the
value of human labor
Wages and salaries are costs to be minimized
Companies lay off workers to remain competitive
Capital is replacing labor in the production of
wealth
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What is the solution?
We need to shift income from wages and salaries
to income from ownership of capital assets
How? Provide broad access to ownership of
capital so that all citizens receive
income from capital investments
Then, technology and globalization will produce
wealth that generates income for all of us
If everyone is an owner of capital, everyone
benefits from increasing productivity -- rich
and poor alike
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How could this be done?

• Have the Federal Reserve issue credit to
• banks for loans to individuals for
  investment in
• approved investment funds.
• (loans secured by shares in the funds)
• (loans repaid by return on investment)

• Replace interest rates with mandatory saving as
• the tool for controlling inflation
• (savings deposited in personal accounts)

This is called Peoples Capitalism It is a Plan
for Prosperity and Economic Justice
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The Process
Federal Reserve
Credit
Repay Credit
Local Investment Bank
Personal Loan
Repay Loan
Individual Citizen
Invest in Mutual Funds
Personal Income
Mutual Fund
Dividends from Mutual Fund
Invest in Capital Assets
Increased Production
Capital Assets
Return On Investment
Goods Services
Increased Sales
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Expected Benefits of Peoples Capitalism

• Investment rate doubles, stock market soars,
• economy grows more than 6 per year

2. Inflation is held below 2 by mandatory
savings

• Every citizen becomes a capitalist with an
  investment
• portfolio that that grows by at least 6000
  per year

4. Minimum income from capital ownership grows
to 1,600 per year in 10 years 5,000
per year in 20 years 29,000 per year in 40
years 58,000 per year in 50 years
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(No Transcript)
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In less than fifty years, Poverty Would Cease to
Exist!
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Q How does Peoples Capitalism work?
A Invest and Save
Part 1 Invest
Federal Reserve issues credits to member
banks for 30-year loans to average citizens
for investment in approved funds (e.g. 6000 per
year)
Loans are secured by investment fund
shares Payments are financed by return on
investment
This enables everyone to acquire a growing
portfolio of productive capital assets and
provides everyone a minimum income from dividends
and capital gains
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Q How does Peoples Capitalism work?
Part 2 Save Substitute mandatory savings
for interest rates as a means for
controlling inflation
Savings withholding rate would be indexed to
inflation and graduated with income
Savings go into personal accounts e.g. CD, IRA,
401K
INVEST and SAVE is a tried and true formula for
rapid economic growth with low inflation
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Q Why substitute mandatory savings for monetary
restraint?
A Mandatory savings would be more effective
than interest rates for controlling inflation
Raising interest rates to control inflation
inhibits investment, restrains productivity
growth, and slows economic growth.
In contrast, withholding savings to control
inflation encourages investment, stimulates
productivity growth, and accelerates economic
growth
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Q Why is the value of labor going down?
A Two factors
1. Globalization is causing a race to the
bottom for wages
2. Modern automation technology is reducing
the need for human labor at every level of
business and commerce
Human labor is being replaced by capital as a
source of wealth
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Q How do bank lending policies prevent
people from acquiring ownership of productive
assets?
A Banks only lend money for investment to
those who already have tangible assets
Thus, the poor cant borrow to invest
Banks are eager to lend money to the poor for
consumption but not for investment
Result bank loans help the rich make money,
but they lead the poor into debt.
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Q Isnt Peoples Capitalism a form of
Communism? or Socialism?
A No and no.
In communism, capital assets are owned by the
state. In PC, capital ownership is widely
distributed to individuals
In socialism, wealth is redistributed through
taxation. In PC, wealth is distributed through
ownership
In Peoples Capitalism, capitalism is the engine
of production and profits are distributed
through ownership
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Q Wouldnt this create an enormous new
government bureaucracy?
A Not at all

• No tax money would be involved

• Credit to member banks could easily be handled
  through
• current mechanisms of the Federal Reserve
  system

• Bank loans to individuals should be no more
  complicated
• than opening a new credit card account

• Investments would be handled through the
  established
• investment banking and mutual fund industry

• Mandatory savings withholdings would be
  implemented
• through existing payroll withholding systems

• Government role would be limited to prosecution
  of
• fraud and criminal activity

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For the latest paper Peoples Capitalism A
Plan for Prosperity and Economic Justice
http//www.PeoplesCapitalism.org/paper
For the original 1976 book, Peoples Capitalism
The Economics of the Robot Revolution http//www.
PeoplesCapitalism.org/book
Home Page httpwww.PeoplesCapitalism.org
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A Word About the Present Crisis
The problem is too much debt.
People borrowed for consumption against future
earnings.
Banks made huge profits from selling bad debt to
other banks.
Investing in consumer debt became more profitable
than investing in capital assets.
Savings went to zero. Investment in productive
enterprise declined.
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A Way Out of the Present Crisis
If we had Peoples Capitalism
The Federal Reserve would increase investment
through credit to banks for individuals to invest.
This would put liquidity into the markets.
Business would have access to investment capital
to upgrade productivity.
Increasing productivity would produce rapid
economic growth.
Individuals would acquire a growing portfolio of
capital assets. This plus rapid growth would
inspire consumer confidence.
Prosperity would not depend on jobs. People
would have growing income from ownership of
productive assets.
Rising income floor would produce a growing
market for consumer goods and services
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This New World is Possible in Your Lifetime!
You can help to make it happen
Tell your friends about this -- They will have
never heard of it
People have no idea that this is possible
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Start a discussion group
Ask your economics professor why Peoples
Capitalism is not in your Economics text books.
Email your favorite blogger
Put a link on your FaceBook page to
PeoplesCapitalism.org
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Learn more about Peoples Capitalism
This is a serious proposal to achieve prosperity
and economic justice through market
capitalism with widespread ownership of capital
assets
see http//www.PeoplesCapitalism.org
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If you want to do something really
ambitious Start a Political Action Committee and
Field a Candidate
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At the very least Think about it
After all, its your life
Wouldnt you prefer to live it in A New World
With Prosperity and Economic Justice for All?