IFPS Methodology Tips

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IFPS Methodology Tips

• Sam Beckman

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IFPS Methodologies

• Will vary with forecaster.
• Can provide tips on methods to try.
• There are many possibilities.
• On going evaluation of new guidance and adjusting
  the grids, to more detail (space and time) as the
  grids near the current time.

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The Goal

• Develop a method to quickly and efficiently
• Evaluate Guidance within IFPS.
• Create a grid with as much detail as possible in
  space and time.
• Create grid consistency among
• Elements.
• Neighboring offices.

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Detailed Temperature Grid
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Using the DFC

• Compare single model runs.
• Compare models.
• Compare sites.
• View past trends and observations.
• Extended guidance trends.
• Timing of fronts at specific site.

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DFC Menu
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DFC- Temperature Observations
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Short-term trends - same model
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Extended Guidance Trends
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DFC Compare Obs and Model
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DFC Front Timing
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DFC Compare Model with Obs
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Using the Grid Manager

• Order elements in a logical order.
• Setup different Weather Element Groups.

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Grid Manager Sort Order
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Grid Manager Temp Guidance
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Spatial Editor AVNMOS Temp
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Grid Manager Temp Guidance 2
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Grid Manager Temps and 850 mb
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Spatial Editor Compare T and 850 T
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Grid Manager - Wx and PoP
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Grid Manager - Sky
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Grid Manager - Evaluate Model Parms
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Edit Area and Query
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Query 700 mb pvv field
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Spatial Editor - Query of 700 mb pvv
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Spatial Editor - Wx and 700 mb pvv
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Spatial Editor - Wx and 700 mb pvv
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Spatial Editor - Query of 700 mb pvv
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Spatial Editor - Assign Value
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Spatial Editor - Toggle Edit and Assign
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Using the Spatial Editor

• Zoom in on display area.
• Active weather element in legend.

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Spatial Editor - Compare Guidance
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Using the Temporal Editor

• Its a trend setter.
• Setup only one element.
• Use different edit areas to set the details.

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Spatial Editor Edit Areas
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CWA Edit Area
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Temporal Editor - CWA
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Snow Field Edit Area
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Temporal Editor Snow Field
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Urban Edit Area
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Temporal Editor Urban area
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Edit Areas

• Defined for unique geographical areas.
• Use the Quick Set buttons for creating unique
  areas based on current weather.
• Snow field, persistent clouds, etc.
• Do we need zone edit areas? Anyone use?

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Scratch Grid - Initial Edit Area
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Temporal Editor - Diurnal cu
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Show ISC Grid
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Show ISC Area
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Use of Smart Tools

• Scientifically correct?
• T to MaxT/MinT or reverse?
• Help in the editing process?
• Maintain consistency between grids?

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Check for Temporal Consistency
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Methodology Examples

• Cloud trends - Diurnal cu, cold air sc, clearing
  speed.
• Relate Wx to D2D grids - pvv, RH, thickness, 850
  mb temps, etc.
• Wind speed and direction changes.
• Timing frontal passage.
• Consistency between Wx and PoP.
• Temperature trends.

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Methodology Web Page

• http//www.nwstc.noaa.gov/nwstrn/ifpsmethod.htm

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Slider Sky grid - AVN
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Slider Sky grid - Eta
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Slider Sky grid - MAV
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Slider Sky grid - MET