Advisor: Dr' Arif Mehmood coordinator: Dr' Ali Assi

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United Arab Emirates UniversityCollege of
EngineeringIndustrial Training and Graduation
project UnitGraduation Project (II)
Analyzing the Impact of Traffic Congestion
Solutions on Road Safety A Case of the
Emirates and Sheikh Zayed Road in Dubai
Advisor Dr. Arif Mehmood coordinator Dr. Ali
Assi
Ghaya Adam Al-Mannaei 200212439
Examination committee Dr. Yaser Hawas Dr. Hassan
Darwish Dr. Mohamed Al-Marzouqi
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Outline
Problem definition
Objectives
Importance of the project
Procedure of simulation model
Relationships used from Literature review
Data collection and Analysis
Simulation model
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Outline

Validation of the model

Conclusion
Acknowledgment
References
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Problem definition

• Traffic congestion and road safety are the two
  main challenges that have been faced in the field
  of transportation engineering.
• Traffic congestion is the outcome of increase in
  the traffic volume due to increase in the
  population and economic activities.

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Problem definition
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objectives

• Develop a modelling framework to illustrate the
  interaction between factors related to traffic
  congestion and road crashes.
• Develop a simple simulation model to incorporate
  the relationships between factors related to
  traffic congestion and road crashes.
• Analyses of the simulation model to understand
  the potential impact of change in traffic flow on
  likelihood of road crashes.

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Project importance
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Number of fatal road crashes on different roads
in Dubai in year 2005



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Number of road crashes on Sheik Zayed Road
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Procedure of simulation model
Field data
Test
Valid
Speed
Not valid
Simulation model
Traffic volume
Adjust
Number of crashes
Modelling equation
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Relationships found from literature review
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Data collection and Analysis
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Selected road segments

Sheik Zayed and Emirates road in Dubai

Emirates road
Sheik Zayed Road
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Geometric information and speed limit on Sheik
Zayed Road


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Capacity of Sheik Zayed Road

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Traffic volume data

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Peak Capacity
Estimated capacity for Sheik Zayed Road.

EVA-modified mortar
SBR-modified mortar
PAE-modified mortar
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Con.

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Cont.

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Speed estimation

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Speed estimation

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Speed estimation

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Simulation model
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Modelling framework

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Development of the model

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Development of the model
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Development of the model
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Development of the model
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Outputs
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Development of the model (outputs)
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Development of the model (outputs)
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Validation of the model
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Validation of the model
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Validation of model

• The pattern of the crash risk and observed number
  of crashes is not consistent.
• Observed number of crashes data is based on year
  2000 to year 2004 and the volume used in the
  model is for year 2006.

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Validation of model

• The model at this stage does not incorporate
  other factors responsible for affecting the
  changes in the crash risk (variation in driving
  characteristics such as age, gender, awareness
  level ).
• Model uses assumed factors to estimate capacity,
  these factors needs more investigation based on
  empirical evidence.

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Conclusion and recommendations

• A modelling framework is presented that
  incorporate the interaction between different
  factors that influence road congestion as well as
  road safety.
• A simple simulation model is developed that
  required more work to its calibration and
  validation.

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Conclusion and recommendations

• For future work it is suggested that the model
  should incorporate more factors and calibration
  of the model which should be based on available
  empirical evidence.

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Acknowledgment
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Acknowledgment

• My deepest gratitude and appreciation to my
  project advisor Dr.Arif Mehmood for his guidance
  and support.
• Also, I would like to thank you for serving as
  members of my final examination committee.
• My thanks go also to the Training and Graduation
  Projects Unit, represented by the administration
  staff and my project coordinator Dr. Ali Assi for
  his helpful comments, guidance and suggestions.

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References

• Dominique L., Abdelaziz M.and Anna V..
  (2004).Modelling crash-flow-density and
  crash-flow- V/C ratio relationships for rural and
  urban segments. Accident analysis and prevention
  37(2005) page 185-199.
• Kloeden C. N., McLean A.J., Moore V. M., and
  Ponte G. (1997). Travelling speed and the risk of
  crash involvement. Road Accident Research Unit
  The University of Adelaide Volume 1.
• Navin, F.,Chow, Kanny Kawan, Thomas.Speed and
  probability of a crash. TRB Paper No.01-0532

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References

• Traffic accident facts in Dubai for year 2005.
  Roads and Transportation Traffic Department.
  Dubai. (2005)
• Thomas F.Golob, Wilifred W.Recker, Veronica
  M.Alvarez. (2003). Freeway safety as a function
  of traffic flow. Accident analysis and prevention
  36(2004) pg.933-946.
• Letty A., Ingrid van Schagen. (2005). Driving
  speed and the risk of road crashes A review.
  Accident analysis and prevention 38 (2006)
  pg.215-224

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References

• Xiao Q.,John N. Ivan, Nalini, Ravishanker and
  Junfeng Liu. (2002). A hierarchical Bayesian
  Estimation of non-linear safety Performance
  (Function of two-Lane Highways Using MCMC
  Modelling). TRB 2003 Annual meeting CD-ROM
• Zhou M. and Sisiopiku V. Relationship between
  volume to capacity ratio and accident rates.
  Transportation research record 1581 pg 47-52

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Thank you for your attention