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The health of children and the health of the elderly: implications for economic growth

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Remarkable Origin: connection early childhood and adult health. Erosion of traditional family ... The demise of the intergenerational contract ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The health of children and the health of the elderly: implications for economic growth


1
The health of children and the health of the
elderly implications for economic growth
  • Alberto Palloni
  • Institute for Policy Research
  • Northwestern University

2
Plan of presentation I prospects for healthy
aging
  • Demographics unusual aging process
  • Unprecedented speed mortality and fertility
  • Remarkable Origin connection early childhood and
    adult health
  • Erosion of traditional family
  • Fragile institutional context

The demand for care
3
Plan of presentation II healthy children and
economic growth
  • Early childhood health and acquisition of
    individual traits
  • Cognitive
  • Non cognitive
  • Socioeconomic achievement

HUMAN K
Human K Economic growth
4
Plan of presentation I prospects for healthy
aging
  • Demographics unusual aging process
  • Unprecedented speed mortality and fertility
  • Remarkable Origin connection early childhood and
    adult health
  • Erosion of traditional family
  • Fragile institutional context

The demand for care
5
Origins of aging
  • Proportion over 60 or 65
  • CURRENT in fertility
  • PAST decreases older age mortality
  • Rate of growth over 60 or 65
  • PAST fertility
  • PAST mortality decline in early childhood
  • PAST decreases older age mortality

6
Aging is produced because proportions at older
ages are too high
7
Compressed aging the rule of 1/4
  • How long does it take for the proportion over 65
    to go from 7 to 14 percent?
  • France 115 years
  • China 27 years
  • Brazil 21 years
  • Thailand 22 years

8
Aging occurs because rate of growth of older
population exceeds rate of growth of younger
population
9
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10
Consequence for composition of elderly by health
status2000-2030
  • Survival due to medical technology and public
    health NOT better standards of living
  • Higher average exposure to early childhood
    illnesses and poverty during childhood
  • Potential for worse health and disability

11
Rapid aging the rule of 17
  • How long does it take for the population 65 and
    over to double its size?

12
Peculiar aging origin of elderly
growth(2000-2030)
  • Growth of past birth cohorts 10-15
  • Past mortality decline 0 to 6040-60
  • Past motality decline 6015-20

13
The rule of 2/3
  • About 2/3 of the growth of population over 65
    between years 2000 and 2030 is due to early
    childhood mortality decline in the 1940-1970
    period

14
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15
Effects
  • Higher prevalence of diabetes and CVD
  • In Mexico odds are increased by 20 to 40
  • Higher levels of disability
  • In Mexico odds are increased by 30 to 50
  • Lower levels of healthy life expectancy
  • In Mexico decreases from 14 to about 11

16
Plan of presentation I prospects for healthy
aging
  • Demographics unusual aging process
  • Unprecedented speed mortality and fertility
  • Remarkable Origin connection early childhood and
    adult health
  • Erosion of traditional family
  • Fragile institutional context

The demand for care
17
The family
  • Demography of kin
  • Ideological context intergenerational contract

18
The supply of kin
19
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20
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21
Ideological context
  • Changes of values regarding children
  • Is old age security motive waning?
  • The demise of the intergenerational contract

22
Plan of presentation I prospects for healthy
aging
  • Demographics unusual aging process
  • Unprecedented speed mortality and fertility
  • Remarkable Origin connection early childhood and
    adult health
  • Erosion of traditional family
  • Fragile institutional context

The demand for care
23
Institutional fragility
  • Lackluster aggregate economic performance
  • Diminished role of public sector or inexistent
  • Poverty
  • Inequality

24
Plan of presentation II healthy children and
economic growth
  • Early childhood health and acquisition of
    individual traits
  • Cognitive
  • Non cognitive
  • Socioeconomic achievement

Human K Economic growth
25
The determinants of adult wagesand Human capital
  • Parental background (wallets)
  • Educational attainment
  • Cognitive (non cognitive) traits
  • Early health

26
Decomposition of effects of parental social
class on sons social class
27
Decomposition of effects of parental social
class on sons social class
28
Decomposition of effects of parental social
class on sons social class
29
Decomposition of effects of parental social
class on sons social class
30
Main inference
  • The effects of early health on wages are
    important but they also work through cognitive
    skills and non-cognitive traits. None are direct.

31
Plan of presentation II healthy children and
economic growth
  • Early childhood health and acquisition of
    individual traits
  • Cognitive
  • Non cognitive
  • Socioeconomic achievement

Human K Economic growth
32
The dilemma within family and in society at large
  • Old age related health expenditures healthy
    aging
  • Future investments in child health human capital
    and future economic growth
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