Title: The health of children and the health of the elderly: implications for economic growth
1The health of children and the health of the
elderly implications for economic growth
- Alberto Palloni
- Institute for Policy Research
- Northwestern University
2Plan of presentation I prospects for healthy
aging
- Demographics unusual aging process
- Unprecedented speed mortality and fertility
- Remarkable Origin connection early childhood and
adult health - Erosion of traditional family
- Fragile institutional context
The demand for care
3Plan of presentation II healthy children and
economic growth
- Early childhood health and acquisition of
individual traits - Cognitive
- Non cognitive
- Socioeconomic achievement
HUMAN K
Human K Economic growth
4Plan of presentation I prospects for healthy
aging
- Demographics unusual aging process
- Unprecedented speed mortality and fertility
- Remarkable Origin connection early childhood and
adult health - Erosion of traditional family
- Fragile institutional context
The demand for care
5Origins of aging
- Proportion over 60 or 65
- CURRENT in fertility
- PAST decreases older age mortality
- Rate of growth over 60 or 65
- PAST fertility
- PAST mortality decline in early childhood
- PAST decreases older age mortality
6Aging is produced because proportions at older
ages are too high
7Compressed aging the rule of 1/4
- How long does it take for the proportion over 65
to go from 7 to 14 percent? - France 115 years
- China 27 years
- Brazil 21 years
- Thailand 22 years
8Aging occurs because rate of growth of older
population exceeds rate of growth of younger
population
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10Consequence for composition of elderly by health
status2000-2030
- Survival due to medical technology and public
health NOT better standards of living - Higher average exposure to early childhood
illnesses and poverty during childhood - Potential for worse health and disability
11Rapid aging the rule of 17
- How long does it take for the population 65 and
over to double its size?
12Peculiar aging origin of elderly
growth(2000-2030)
- Growth of past birth cohorts 10-15
- Past mortality decline 0 to 6040-60
- Past motality decline 6015-20
13The rule of 2/3
- About 2/3 of the growth of population over 65
between years 2000 and 2030 is due to early
childhood mortality decline in the 1940-1970
period
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15Effects
- Higher prevalence of diabetes and CVD
- In Mexico odds are increased by 20 to 40
- Higher levels of disability
- In Mexico odds are increased by 30 to 50
- Lower levels of healthy life expectancy
- In Mexico decreases from 14 to about 11
16Plan of presentation I prospects for healthy
aging
- Demographics unusual aging process
- Unprecedented speed mortality and fertility
- Remarkable Origin connection early childhood and
adult health - Erosion of traditional family
- Fragile institutional context
The demand for care
17The family
- Demography of kin
- Ideological context intergenerational contract
18The supply of kin
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21Ideological context
- Changes of values regarding children
- Is old age security motive waning?
- The demise of the intergenerational contract
22Plan of presentation I prospects for healthy
aging
- Demographics unusual aging process
- Unprecedented speed mortality and fertility
- Remarkable Origin connection early childhood and
adult health - Erosion of traditional family
- Fragile institutional context
The demand for care
23Institutional fragility
- Lackluster aggregate economic performance
- Diminished role of public sector or inexistent
- Poverty
- Inequality
24Plan of presentation II healthy children and
economic growth
- Early childhood health and acquisition of
individual traits - Cognitive
- Non cognitive
- Socioeconomic achievement
Human K Economic growth
25The determinants of adult wagesand Human capital
- Parental background (wallets)
- Educational attainment
- Cognitive (non cognitive) traits
- Early health
26Decomposition of effects of parental social
class on sons social class
27Decomposition of effects of parental social
class on sons social class
28Decomposition of effects of parental social
class on sons social class
29Decomposition of effects of parental social
class on sons social class
30Main inference
- The effects of early health on wages are
important but they also work through cognitive
skills and non-cognitive traits. None are direct.
31Plan of presentation II healthy children and
economic growth
- Early childhood health and acquisition of
individual traits - Cognitive
- Non cognitive
- Socioeconomic achievement
Human K Economic growth
32The dilemma within family and in society at large
- Old age related health expenditures healthy
aging - Future investments in child health human capital
and future economic growth