New aspects of competition: Arianespace prospective

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New aspects of competition Arianespace
prospective

• Michel Doubovick
• Vice President, Corporate Governmental Affairs

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Constant factors shaping launch services

• Government concerns remain predominant worldwide
• Strategic access to space
• European specificity low level of utilization
• Stability of the launch service market
  structurally fragile
• Commercial market 20-25 spacecraft per year
• Theoretical overcapacity conditioned by
  availability (Proton), sustainability (Sea
  Launch), costs (Delta IV, Atlas V), strategy
  (H-IIA), diplomacy (Long March), maturity (GSLV)
• Arianespace performance guaranteed access to
  space for Europe through commercial success
• 248 satellites launched
• Already 34 Ariane 5 launches performed (including
  10 ECA)
• European family of launchers to foster launch
  offer competitiveness (Ariane 5, Vega and Soyuz)
• Most important order-book roughly 40 satellites
  in backlog
• Over 3 year ahead workload secured for the
  European industry
• (58 Ariane 5 currently in manufacturing)

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Factors impacting European launch service
prospective (1/2)

• On the institutional side
• Still lack of overall coherence (investment in
  launchers/utilization)
• European preference for launching institutional
  missions
• Optimizing institutional spacecraft compliancy
  with European launchers
• Decision makers consciousness to strengthen
  regarding the European launch sector
• For mid to long-term, Ariane 5 ECA, Soyuz and
  Vega will feet European needs
• European launch sector sustained equally by
  commercial sales and public budgets

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Factors impacting European launch service
prospective (2/2)

• On the market side
• Market expectations are conservative
• Reliability (technical stability), availability
  and service quality (schedule and visibility),
  dual procurement source
• Current trends on the demand side
• Boosting demand in-orbit fleet replacement,
  HDTV, mobile connectivity (spacecraft growing in
  mass but compliant with current launch vehicle
  designs)
• Difficulty to anticipate the long-term remaining
  the reference standard is key
• On the offer side
• Market prices driven by the production costs of
  established competitors (Russian launchers) with
  a significant increase in during the last two
  years
• / exchange rate deteriorating European
  competitiveness
• New era of trouble could arise from newcomers

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Conclusion (1/2)

• The European model performs well
• Guaranteed access to space secured by commercial
  success and at market conditions
• Commercial success in the long-run depending upon
  the ability to remain the reference
• Current family of launchers able to satisfy
  requirements through robust production and
  exploitation conditions (reliability and
  flexibility)
• Launcher sector related issues are growingly
  industrial ones
• Launchers operational instruments actually
  serving general policy objectives (information
  society purposes science, defense and security,
  telecommunications,)
• European technical maturity broadly achieved
• European launcher sector depending equally upon
  exploitation results (recurrent production) and
  budgetary funded activities (RD)

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Conclusion (2/2)

• European decision makers must elaborate upon
  those factors regarding public involvement in
  launcher activities
• Securing overall coherence of institutional
  decisions (using domestic launcher for their
  missions)
• Whenever possible, preventing external factors
  (/ exchange rate, newcomers) from destabilizing
  the launch service market
• Preparing decisions on future launcher activities
  and programs (ESA Ministerial Council in 2008) in
  accordance with exhaustive rationale
  (RD/production and exploitation)

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