ECOHEATCOOL WP1: The European Heat Market 2003 (8 short facts and 5 conclusions) WP4: District Heating Possibilities WP2: The European Cooling Market

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ECOHEATCOOL WP1 The European Heat Market
2003(8 short facts and 5 conclusions) WP4
District Heating Possibilities WP2 The European
Cooling Market

• Sven Werner
• Department of Energy and Environment
• Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden

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ECOHEATCOOL - Performance
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ECOHEATCOOL European Heat Market 2003

• Demand analysis, no supply analysis
• EU25 ACC4 EFTA3 32 countries
• Facts about heat demands
• Focus on the industrial, residential, and service
  sectors
• Main source IEA Energy balances, since more
  reliable than Eurostat energy database with
  respect to heat information

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ECOHEATCOOL European Heat Market 2003 Some
Facts
Figure 7. Industrial heat demands estimated by
temperature quality and by manufacturing branch
for the whole target area of 32 countries. The
figure has been created by using experiences from
the German industry reported in (AGFW, 2005) and
applied on the IEA database for the target area.
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ECOHEATCOOL European Heat Market 2003 Some
Facts
Figure 17. Residential useful floor space per
capita versus each national GDP per capita for
2003. Average lines added for the EU15 and NMS10
country groups.
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ECOHEATCOOL European Heat Market 2003 Some
Facts
Figure 19. Useful floor space in the service
sector per capita versus each national GDP per
capita for 2003.
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ECOHEATCOOL European Heat Market 2003 Some
Facts
Figure 26. Market shares for end use of net heat
and electricity in the others sector during 2003.
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ECOHEATCOOL European Heat Market 2003 Some
Facts
Figure 21. The new European heating index (EHI)
in a contour map computed from information for 80
urban locations in Europe. The space heating
demand should be proportional to this index. Note
that the map is not representative for all
locations in each country, since the existing
data grid consists of only 80 locations.
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ECOHEATCOOL European Heat Market 2003 Some
Facts
Figure 46. Estimations of national averages of
district heat prices without VAT for 23 countries
in the target area. Source (Werner Brodén,
2004) with update by additions of 2002 and 2003.
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ECOHEATCOOL European Heat Market 2003 Some
Facts

• Total customer costs for net heat and electricity
  (including national taxes but excluding VAT) was
  almost 400 Billion during 2003 with the
  following distribution

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ECOHEATCOOL European Heat Market 2003 Some
Facts
Figure 48. Other and industrial sector net heat
and electricity cost including national taxes for
final consumption as a fraction of each national
GDP for 2003.
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Major Conclusions

1. Heat dominates the European energy demand
2. Heat use is dominated by the supply of natural
   gas and electricity
3. About the same space heat demand in Western,
   Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe
4. International heat statistics can be improved
5. No major physical constraints for more district
   heat in Europe Expansion is possible

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Conclusions 1. Heat Dominates End Use
Figure 2. Energy balances for EU25ACC4EFTA3
during 2003. Heat in the Total Final Consumption
bar considers commercial heat deliveries, mostly
through district heating systems, while heat in
the Total End Use bar considers all heat used by
end users, except heat generated from
electricity, still allocated to the electricity
area.
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Conclusions 2. Heat Use Is Dominated by the
Supply of Natural Gas and Electricity
Figure 38. Final end use of net heat and
electricity for the whole target area for the
three major sectors with origin of supply.
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Conclusions 2. Heat Use Is Dominated by the
Supply of Natural Gas and Electricity
Figure 39. Total final end use of net heat and
electricity in the three major sectors
(industrial, residential, and service) in each
country with origin of supply.
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Conclusions 3. About the Same Space Heat Demand
Figure 37. Correlation between the residential
net heat and electricity use per m2 during 2003
and the new European heating index. Iceland has
been excluded due to a high value (1750 MJ/m2).
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Conclusions 4. Improvement of International
Heat Statistics

• International heat statistics have been improved
  during the last 10-20 years, both by IEA and
  Eurostat.
• But both major and minor deficiencies remain
• Major deficiencies National information about
  district heat is not always properly transferred
  to international statistics (Germany, France, and
  Italy)
• Minor deficiencies Misallocations between use
  sectors (Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, and
  France, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech and Slovak
  republics)

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Conclusions 4. Improvement of International
Heat Statistics
An example of how the district heat sectors for
Germany, France, and Italy are lost in
international energy statistics!
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Conclusions 5. District Heat Can Expand

• Most heat demands are located in urban areas
  where district heating system can expand or be
  introduced.
• No major difference in magnitudes of heat demands
  in countries with and without district heating.
• The current heat sources are huge The use of
  district heat (2 EJ) is only 6 of all current
  conversion heat losses in the energy, industrial,
  residential, and service sectors.

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The Current European District Heating Situation

• Several thousands of district heating systems
  exist today in EU25 ACC4 EFTA 3.
• Large systems are found in Warsaw, Berlin,
  Stockholm, Helsinki, Sofia, Paris, Vienna,
  Munich, Prague, and Copenhagen.
• New, small systems have been introduced in both
  Barcelona (Districlima) and Lisbon (Climespaso).
• The basic technologies, business models,
  organisations, and staff have been developed and
  exist already.
• Major inventions are not needed for expansion of
  existing systems and introduction of new systems.

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But the District Heating Systems Do Not Grow!
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Next Step in ECOHEATCOOL Quantifying the
Benefits With More District Heat in Europe
Doubling the 2003 district heat share in Europe
will

• Decrease all carbon dioxide emissions with X
• Increase security of supply with X
• Increase the overall energy efficiency with X

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Distribution of the doubling
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Distribution of the doubling
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ECOHEATCOOL European Cooling Market Facts
 Figure 4. European cooling index (ECI) in a
contour map computed from information from 80
urban locations in Europe. The average space
cooling demand should be proportional to this
index. Note that the map is not representative
for all locations in each country, since the
existing data grid consists of only 80 locations.
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European cooling demands
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District Cooling as a Future Alternative
Figure 16. Indicative mapping of district cooling
networks and on-site cooling installations (5
biggest indicated per country)
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The End

• Thank you for your attention!
• Any questions?
• More information at
• www.ecoheatcool.org