Pearson Longman PoliticalScienceInteractive

1
Pearson LongmanPoliticalScienceInteractive

• Shea, Green, and Smith
• Living Democracy, Second Edition
• Chapter 10
• Political Socialization and Public Opinion

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Political Socialization
The conscious and unconscious transmission of
culture and values from one generation to
another. A process through which people learn
political information, form political knowledge,
and develop political values

• Agents of Socialization
• Family
• School and Peers
• Mass Media
• Religious Beliefs
• Race and Ethnicity
• Gender
• Age
• Region (Plano 5th most conservative city in US)

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Agents of Socialization
Family
Schools and Education
Primary and High Schools teach democratic
values, hierarchical power, respect for law, and
an idealized view of the nations slogans and
symbols.

• Families especially powerful in shaping
• Party identification
• Attitudes on Gender and Race
• Stronger Family Ties Stronger Socialization

College and Graduate School The higher the level
of education, the more liberal increased
experience with diversity, complexity and history
of issues, liberal teachers
Number of times a week American families say that
they eat together
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Education

• Education tends to increase citizens awareness
  and understanding of political issues, often
  having a liberalizing effect on non-fiscal
  social issues.

Percentage of Americans Favoring Particular
Public Policies, by Education, 2004
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Agents of Socialization

• Peers and Community
• In heterogeneous communities, political
  participation and efficacy tend to be higher,
  with more political debate than in homogeneous
  communities.
• Experience with diversity leads to greater
  acceptance of it

• Religion
• Conservative religious groups tend to socialize
  against acceptance of gays, abortion, etc.
• Liberal religious groups tend to socialize to
  focus on treatment of poor and outcast,
  peacemaking, etc.
• Those raised in religious households tend to be
  socialized to contribute to society and get
  involved in their communities (especially Reform
  Judaism).

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Religion

• Today nearly 85 percent of Americans say that
  they belong to an organized religion, 75 percent
  say that religion is important to their lives,
  and 95 percent say that they believe in God.

Percentage of Americans Identifying with the
Major Political Parties, by Religion
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Agents of Socialization

• Gender and Race
• Different groups have different histories with
  government and thus different levels of efficacy,
  trust in government, attachment to particular
  parties, etc..

• Region
• Variance by Region, State, City

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Agents of Socialization

• Media
• Americans watch average of 30 hrs TV per week,
  children watch more than 1,000 hrs per year
• Constant negativity can impact efficacy, trust in
  government and politicians, political
  participation, etc.
• A Pew study and a CNN poll found that viewers of
  The Daily Show, hosted by Jon Stewart, were more
  informed than those who regularly read the
  newspaper.
• Echo Chamber effect

• Age and Events
• Older and younger Americans have different
  experiences and interests
• The short-term influence of events may be
  enormous, while the long-term impacts may be
  harder to gauge.

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The Impact of Events on Socialization

• 20s-40s Great Depression and WWII
• 60s-70s Vietnam and Watergate
• 1990s
• End of Cold War
• Gulf War
• Clinton sex scandal
• 2000s
• 01 September 11th attacks, invasion of
  Afghanistan
• - 03 invasion of Iraq
• Changing views of conservatism from scandals in
  Republican party
• Campaign 2008

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Social Groups and Political Values

• The existence of crosscutting cleavages makes it
  difficult for political scientists to say which
  factors are the most important in shaping
  particular attitudes.

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From Values to Ideology
Political Ideology A consistent set of
fundamental beliefs about the proper purpose and
scope of government
Liberals Tend to support social and cultural
change and want an activist government that
encourages change
Conservatives Tend to favor traditional views and
a smaller governmental role in economy
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Public Opinion
To what extent should public opinion drive public
policy?

• Elitist View
• Believes that complex decisions need to be made
  free of public pressure. The masses should be
  spectators in the process.

Historical Views Founders held that policy
making should be insulated from public passions

• Pluralistic View
• Believes that citizens should be informed and
  should participate in democratic decision making
  to ensure the health and vitality of the system.

Contemporary Considerations Less elitist,
believing that good decisions must be based on
public opinion and good information
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Shifts in Public Opinion
Cohort Replacement The process of one generation
replacing another, bringing a new set of
experiences, opinions
The percentage of people who believe that women
should have an equal role with men in running
business, industry, and government, 19722004
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The History of Polling

• Straw Polls Unscientific surveys used to gauge
  public opinion on a variety of issues and
  policies
• 1824 Harrisburg Pennsylvanian conducts the first
  straw poll
• 1883 Boston Globe polled voters
• 1916 Literary Digest polling to predict prez
  elections
• Correct from 1920 to 1932 but 1936, blew the
  Landon v. FDR race
• used phone directories, lists of auto owners,
  polled too early, used mail surveys
• Today Snap polls on cable news or blog polls
• Scientific Polls
• 1930s Public opinion polling as we know it began
  to develop, spurred on by Lippmans Public
  Opinion (1922)
• George Gallup correctly predicted results of 1936
  presidential contest, launched Gallup
  Organization
• Over years got more accurate, scientific
• Most reliable / accurate
• Elections 2004, 2008
• General Political Issues Gallup Organization,
  National Election Study, Harris Interactive
  (internet)
• Future Internet polling?

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Political Polls

• Push Polls
• Polls taken for the purpose of providing
  information on an opponent that would lead
  respondents to vote against that candidate
• Tracking Polls
• Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to
  chart its daily rise or fall in support
• Presidential Approval ratings can impact
  presidents ability to accomplish goals
• Exit Polls
• Polls conducted at selected polling places on
  Election Day
• Problems with Exit Polls

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Analyze a Poll

• In groups of three, follow the instructions to
  analyze this sample poll.

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How to screw up a poll

• Poor Internal Validity
• Poor or skewed question wording
• Word choice or question content
• Too much or too little info
• Framing
• Priming, Question ordering
• Response set effects
• Interviewer effects
• Poor External Validity
• Small sample size 1500 ideal. Fewer raises
  margin of error
• Non-representative samples
• Non-response bias
• Invalid subsets
• Self-selection

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How to screw up a poll

• Poor External Validity
• Small sample size
• 1500 ideal. Fewer raises margin of error
• Non-representative samples
• Non-response bias
• Invalid subsets
• Self-selection

Most common Probability sample Simple random
sample Stratified sample

• Two Methods of
• Drawing a Sample

Least scientific Accidental sample
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Problems with polls

• Horserace mania
• Bandwagon or Underdog effects
• Calling Elections
• Reagan vs. Carter
• The 2000 fiasco
• Spiral of Silence
• Manipulation of data
• Are a passive form of expression