The role of ECMWF products in the optimisation of operational processes at KNMI

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The role of ECMWF products in the optimisation of
operational processes at KNMI

• Janneke OttensHead Forecasting Division
• Thanks to Robert Mureau, Kees Lemcke, Marcel
  Molendijk, Nico Maat, Ben Wichers-Schreur, Albert
  Jacobs, and Hans Roozekrans
• ECMWF user meeting,
• 14-16 June 2006

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Content

• Part IECMWF /EPS derived products linked to
  optimisation
• Severe weather
• Water management board risk profiles
• Water level management/wind surge
• Part IIRestructuring of operational processes
• The 5 Points Program

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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation

• Severe weather
• Criteria linked to warnings
• Weather alarms (general public)
• Warnings for special groups (maritime, aviation,
  . )
• Special warnings/advice for (other) ministries
• Critria linked to fcst period
• Warning (12-24 hrs)
• Weather alarm (0-12 hrs)
• First guess table First guess medium range
  forecast ( including error margins )

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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation

• Severe weather
• Now new weather alarms
• Yes or no, not good enough for all warning types
• Early Warnings (24 - 240 hrs) probabilities
• Warnings (12-24 hrs) subjective probabilities
• Weather alarm (0-12 hrs) yes or no

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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation

• Water management board risk profiles
• Alert System input
• Precipitation History based on radar images
• Short Range Hirlam 22 km model
• Beyond 36 h EPS

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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation

• Water management board risk profiles
• 37 Water Boards in the Netherlands
• 5 participated in pilot project
• Water Boards are responsible for
• flood control,
• water quantity,
• water quality
• treatment of urban wastewater

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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation

• Input from waterboards
• Risk Profiles set of thresholds
• Example 50 mm within 72 hours probability 33
• Several ranges possible
• The specified ranges can include history
• Alert System
• If forecast or historyforecast exceeds
  threshold
• Automatic E-mail to the involved Water Board(s)
• Water Board gets access to our Extranet
• Forecasters informed and on standby

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Example history - short range
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Example EPS
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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation

• Water level management/Wind surge

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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation

• Water level management/Wind surge
• Shifts are added at the storm surge centre, when
  critical levels are exeeded
• More frequent updates of fcsts
• More frequent contact between fcst office and
  storm surge centre

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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation

• External use
• All these products lead to introduction of
  probabilities in forecast products for users
• Internal use
• Also for the KNMI organisation
• Enabling more automated production of fcsts/
  scenario- fcsts
• Enabling more efficient shift-management in the
  fcst office so calledweather dependent
  upscaling in relation to user requirements

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Further use of EPS

• Experiment with prob early warnings on
  (protected) web site
• Link up to EMMA
• Target specific groups with specific risk
  profiles (each group with its own threshold
  e.g. Water Boards, Red Cross, Windsurge)
• Development of heat wave warnings
• Monitor, verify and calibrate

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Part IIRestructuring of operational
processesThe 5 Points Program

• Replacement Meteorological Workstation (MWS)
• Automated Product generation forecast office
• Monitoring Alerting tools
• Nowcasting / Severe weather
• Post-processing/editing models or choose a
  specific model Switchfc

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Replacement MWS P1

• Current situation
• MWS of 3SI (Spatial Software Solutions Inc, USA)
• Started with Metlab Classic in 1992, operational
  in 1995
• Migration to Smartwindows (KNMI version Metlab2)
  (2000-2005)

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Replacement MWS P1

• Evaluation of NinJo
• Version 1.1 with live data soon(Obs, Satellite,
  Radar and Models)
• Evaluation of DIANA
• Available for download since May 31th

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Replacement MWS P1

• Specifications new MWS
• To be used for evaluation NinJo and DIANA or ITT
• Internal WEB solutions (additional to MWS)
• Redesign of current distributed server solution
  13 non-operational scientific webservers.
• Now Mainly maps animations
• Future Google Earth/Maps solutions ??

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Product generation

• Starting points
• Better use of existing NWP-model productsand
  predictability products
• Largely automated production
• weather dependent automatic distribution of
  products
• Criteria/ranges based on model output and agreed
  upon with users
• Better use of forecasters
• less routine production
• more advisory function
• weather dependent deployment (EPS for internal
  shift management)

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Product generation

• Projects
• Quick Wins small adaptions existing tools (2005)
• New tools to improve automatic product generation
• New working methods adapted to new production
  tools

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Product generation/alerting

• Some requirements
• Pre-defined alert levels for raw data
• Pre-defined alert levels for products
• Alerts in XML
• Filtering of alerts
• Visualisation of alerts (dash board)
• Link to raw data or products
• Possibility for manual interactive editing of
  products

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Meteorological Production Process (MPP)
data
Yellow data flow not monitored by forecaster
objective post- processing
customers
Forecaster 1. Check automatic Monitoring 2.
Check and edit automated product
generation 3. Manual production 4. Manual
monitoring
automated product generation
automatic monitoring
Pilot study
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• Dashboard Forecaster
• Information about What? When? Where? Why?
• Functionality (a.o.)
• Presentation triggers (filtering) based on
• Trigger system
• Trigger issue time
• Trigger kind
• Forecasters Area of interest
• (Connected with) production toolsand detailed
  information (URLs)

• System X generates triggers
• Alerts observations, ,

XML
Trigger Database

• System Y generates triggers
• Alerts NWM-models, ,

• System Z generates triggers
• Alerts Automatic Production, ,

• Dashboard Forecaster
• Information about What? When? Where? Why?
• Functionality (a.o.)
• Presentation triggers (filtering) based on
• Trigger system
• Trigger issue time
• Trigger kind
• Forecasters Area of interest
• (Connected with) production toolsand detailed
  information (URLs)

DASHBOARD FORECASTER
automatic distribution
Manual production/adaption
distribution
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Monitoring Alerting tools

• Meteorological alerts
• Timely production
• Timely distribution
• Verification of models and issued forecasts

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Nowcasting / Severe weather

• Projects
• Satrep Eumetrain
• Downscaling
• Implementation MSG and Cinesat
• Innovation radar display

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Nowcasting / Severe weather

• Eumetrain
• international project as follow-up
  Satrep(ZAMG,FMI,UKMO,DWD,KNMI,DMHZ,Eumetsat)
• Development training modules (e-learning)
• Update description conceptual models
• KNMI will focus on severe weather

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Nowcasting / Severe weather

• Downscaling
• A method for the computation of the local wind
  flow on scales as small as 500 m to 1 km.
• A very simple two-layer physical model of the
  Planetary Boundary Layer
• High-resolution topographical information of the
  surface roughness derived from Geographical
  Information System (GIS) datasets.

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HIRLAM resolution 22 km
Downscaling resolution 1 km
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Zwanenburgbaan (18C-36C)
Buitenveldertbaan (09-27)
Polderbaan (18R-36L)
Aalsmeerbaan (18L-36R)
Kaagbaan (06-24)

• Can be used for
• windforecasts at touchdown positions (cross- and
  tailwind)
• wind gusts

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Nowcasting / Severe weather

• Implementation MSG and Cinesat
• MSG requires other/more tools to benifit of new
  data
• Current MWS does not have decicated tools for MSG
  
• (TM Gepard,Vienna) offers a
  large range of analysing tools and postprocessing
  tools.

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• Atmospheric motion fields
• Nowcasted (predicted) images
• Cloud contour prediction
• Predicted trajectories
• Cloud development maps
• Convective cells and their predicted trajectories
• Upper tropospheric humidity image
• Image movies

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Nowcasting / Severe weather

• Innovation radar display
• A few years ago KNMI developed a SVG-display

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• What happens, why need for new display?
• More information required
• More GIS info while zooming
• Adding road temperature, more lightning
  facilities, precipitation type, cumulative
  precip, higher resolution images etc.
• SVG is not hot anymore, not much progress in
  viewers (e.g. Adobe SVG-viewer)
• Adding more info to existing application too
  complex and unstable

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How to use/choose modelsSwitch fc

• Original plan Model Switch

products
Model A
Model B
post processing
Model ..
Model ..
Model Z
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How to use/choose modelsSwitch fc

• New plan Switch fc
• Statistical Weighting of Information Targeted at
  Combining High-resolution forecasts
• A system to combine available deterministic
  forecasts in an optimal way using the Bayesian
  Model Averaging (BMA) technique

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http//bma.apl.washington.edu/
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Role of ECMWF products in optimisation of
operational processes

• The 5 Points Program should ultimately lead to
• More efficient production
• Better quality products
• Easier implementation innovation
• More flexibility
• The same approach as with EPS for medium range,
  now also for short range using HIRLAM
• Thank you for your attention!