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1
A climate friendly nuclear-free world is
possiblethe Energy Revolution scenario
Wolfram Krewitt DLR Institute of Technical
Thermodynamics Systems Analysis and Technology
Assessment Stuttgart
World Energy Solutions 9-10 November 2007 Rome
2
Projection of technology development and
socio-economic change
Forecasting
Reference future world
Alternative policy options
long term target year
required interventions and investments
Backcasting
Normative target world
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
source anonymous
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Winning the battle against climate change

• The European Council and the European Parliament
  have both confirmed the EUs objective to limit
  average global temperature increase to a maximum
  of 2C compared to pre-industrial level.

Commission of the European Communities, January
2007
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CO2-reduction target

• limit global mean temperature rise to lt 2 C
• Stabilisation of global CO2-concentration below
  450 ppm
• reduce energy related CO2-emissions from 27 Gt/a
  today to 10 GtCO2/a in 2050
• per-capita emission rights in 2050 1 tCO2/a

CO2/(capita, year)
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IEA CO2 Projections
Gt/a
IEA ETP Baseline
IEA WEO Reference
IEA WEO Alternative Policy
IEA ETP ACT
IEA ETP TechPlus
2C target
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a sustainable world energy outlook the Energy
Revolution Scenario

• key targets
• climate change limit global mean temperature
  rise to less than 2 C
• phasing out of nuclear energy on a global level
• incentives for sustainable economic development
• key strategies
• improve energy use efficiency
• improve energy conversion efficiency
• exploitation of renewable energy resources

7
10 world regions
8
population development
9
GDP development projection
10
is business-as-usual a useful benchmark?
final energy demand extrapolated based on
IEA-WEO 2004 Reference Scenario
PJ/a
11
Energy savings per measure in 2050
12
increase in global energy productivity by factor 4
3.0 /a
Mill. ppp,2000/PJ
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global final energy demand by sector
Energy Revolution - Scenario
Reference Scenario
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final energy demand
China
India
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final energy demand OECD Europe
70.000
70.000
60.000
60.000
50.000
50.000
PJ/a
PJ/a
40.000
40.000
30.000
30.000
20.000
20.000
10.000
10.000
16
global electricity supply Energy Revolution
Scenario
TWh/a
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future electricity supply structure - China
Reference Scenario
Energy Revolution Scenario
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Solar resources in Europe
Global horizontal irradiation, 1. October 2005,
1200-1300
W/m²
Source DLR
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PV electricity generation potential
1. October 2005, 1200-1300
actual demand 345 GWh potential generation 164
GWh
MWh/km²
Source DLR
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Solar resources in the Middle East/North Africa
region
a solar thermal power plant of the size of Lake
Nasser (Aswan) could harvest energy equivalent to
the annual oil production of the Middle East
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Projection of a future trans-European/Mediterranea
n interconnection
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass
HV-DC lines
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Renewable energy technical potentials in Europe
250
EJ/y
200
Geothermal heat
Solar heating
Biomass energy crops
150
Biomass residues
Geothermal (el)
Ocean (el)
100
Wind (el)
Hydro (el)
Solar PV (el)
Solar CSP (el)
50
0
RES potentials
gross primary energy consumption EU-25 in 2005
Source Ecofys, DLR
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RES deployment potentials in the electricity
sector
Energy Revolution Scenario , OECD Europe
6.000
Efficiency
5.000
Import RES
Ocean Energy
Solar Thermal
4.000
PV
TWh/a
Geothermal
3.000
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
2.000
CHP fossil
Gasoil
1.000
Coal
Nuclear
0
2003
24
RES deployment potentials primary energy
Energy Revolution Scenario , OECD Europe
45 energy savings compared to business-as-usual
50 renewables
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Costs of electricity supply
500
450
400
wisdom of market?
350
/a

300
Billion
250
200
150
100
50
0
2003
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2C Scenario - efficiency measures
2C Scenario - electricity generation
Reference - electricity generation
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Costs of electricity supply
500
450
policy incentives wisdom of market!
400
350
/a

300
Billion
250
200
150
100
50
0
2003
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2C Scenario - efficiency measures
2C Scenario - electricity generation
Reference - electricity generation
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• expenditures for fuel imports

regional added value due to investment in
renewable energy technologies
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global investment in renewable electricity
technologies energy revolution scenario
billion per year
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Discussion

• achieving the 2C target is technically feasible
• societal and structural innovation is required to
  facilitate the transformation process
• exploitation of energy efficiency potentials is a
  huge challenge
• renewable energies hedge against increasing
  energy prices
• investment in renewable energy technologies
  offers options for industrial development and
  employment
• current real world-trends deviate from Energy
  Revolution Scenario ? strong policy action is
  required!
• use a target oriented scenario as a policy
  benchmark!

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