Food vs. fuel and land use- Why we need Intern. Bioenergy trade

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Food vs. fuel and land use- Why we need Intern.
Bioenergy trade agric. revolution Intern.
Workshop Woodfuel supply chain- Sharing
experienceWarwick, 15-19 Sept/2008

• Frank Rosillo-Calle
• Research Fellow
• CEP/BEG
• Imperial College London
• f.rosillo-calle_at_imperial.ac.uk
• www3.imperial.ac.uk/people/f.rosillo-calle

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The food vs. fuel dilemma

• The agricultural and forestry sectors face huge
  challenges and opportunities as a rising demand
  for an increasingly diverse range of products
  emerges.
• Markets for the classical six "Fs" Food, Feed,
  Fuel, Feedstock, Fibre and Fertiliser, is
  expanding rapidly driven by a combination of
  growing population, and rising per-capita demand
  for non-food natural products.

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The growing concern with biofuels

• Recent studies questioning some environmental and
  social benefits of biofuels have intensified the
  debate e.g. see FAO (2007) Royal Society
  (2008).
• A common feature of many studies is that they
  lack rigorous long term scientific data to back
  up most of the claims.
• Worse, most of the criticisms have been blown up
  out of proportion by the general press and
  detractors of biofuels.
• Production of biofuels is complex given the key
  role of agriculture, the potential impacts of
  climate change, increasing demand for food and
  energy, and environmental scrutiny.

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Agricultural dilemma

• What then could be the potential role of
  agriculture in meeting such demand without
  jeopardising its primary role of providing food?
• What would be the economic, social, political,
  and environmental consequences?
• How is this increasingly complex situation
  managed will be crucial.

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The dilemma of raising food prices

• The farmer needs higher prices so that he/she can
  re-invest
• But who is the real beneficiary
• The poor in particular needs to keep prices low
• Needs social safeguards
• Raw material plays a small role in prices
  increases
• Transport, transformation, speculation () real
  culprits

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1. Fact

• Rise on commodities international prices since
  January 2000
• Source Institute for Applied Economic
  Research (IPEA), 2008

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1. Fact

• Growth of world agricultural production
• Source FAO

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Which course of action?

• There are not easy and single answers
• By transforming agriculture (i.e. through new
  investment, education, skills, greater equity,
  etc) and fair trade of agricultural products
  (including biofuels) it is possible to produce
  far more food and substitute 5-20 of petrol in
  transportation by biofuels without affecting food
  supply.
• What is needed is to transform the way we
  produce, transform, and distribute agricultural
  products.

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How much land is available?

• There are more than 2Gha of underexploited land,
  plus 700 Mha of other type of land that could be
  used for non-food purposes.
• Direct land competition is a myth rather than a
  reality considering that merely 1 of the global
  land area is currently dedicated to biofuels.
• A complex web of factors e.g. lack of investment
  in agriculture, short term investment objectives,
  speculation poverty.
• As Hazel Wood (2007) put it .., more food is
  produced than needed to feed the entire world
  population and at prices that have never been so
  low. The fundamental hunger problem today is one
  of income distribution rather than food
  shortages.

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2. Land use

• Area for agriculture
• Source Institute for International
  Trade Negotiations (ICONE), 2008

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Land alone isnt the issue

• India has stabilised crop land area by increasing
  productivity through capitalization, RD, skills
• Ravindranth (2006) has suggested that even with
  modest increases in crops productivity, India
  could free up one-third to one-half of Indias
  current cropland for production of bioenergy.
• And keeping up with food demand ()

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A problem of lack of investment, skills, capital,
market

• Agriculture has suffered from chronic under
  investment in most parts of the world e.g. in the
  1980s about 17 of international development aid
  was for agriculture, but in 2005 this was just
  3.
• Modernisation of agriculture is essential as it
  will lead to greater overall production.
• Agriculture needs massive new investment, for
  innovation and diversification which could truly
  transform agriculture as we know it.

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Science-based agriculture ()

• Farming cannot be seen as a backward activity,
  but as a science driven industry.
• Investment on modern scientific research for
  agriculture led to dramatic yield breakthroughs
  in the last century
• Example, in England wheat yields took nearly 1000
  years to increase from 0.5 to 2 t/ha/yr, but just
  40 years increased to 6 t/ha/yr (Hazel Woods,
  2007).

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Give farmers the right conditions!!

• Give the farmers the right conditions and they
  will be able to produce far more food, energy and
  industrial products.
• Think of the poor African farmer, only if he/she
  could have access to the same conditions farmers
  have in the industrial countries!
• This requires many fundamental changes e.g. land
  ownership, fair distribution, good educational
  level, availability of capital, skills, finance,
  marketing knowledge, and so forth.

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Promote freer biofuels trade

• It is illogic to tax biofuels while fossil fuels
  do not have any trade barriers or any other
  restrictions.
• Walter et al (2008 www.bioenergytrade.org
  studies show that international bioenergy trade
  is essential to ensure the sustainability and low
  cost of biofuels
• Remove artificial barriers and leaving the market
  to play much greater role in determining the
  right and fair price rather than governments.

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Over-concern with biofuels (?)

• It is right to ask ourselves
• Will our concern with the environment,
  sustainability, and biodiversity leads to the
  imposition of requirements so stringent that it
  will hinder (or even prevent) rather than enhance
  the development of biofuels?
• It is important to devise strategies that allow
  for the best possible use of biomass resources on
  a fair playing field.

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There is not a perfect fuel!!

• There is not any magic formula or perfect fuel
• Biofuels are being subjected to unprecedented
  scrutiny
• Why arent we applying the same criteria for all
  fuels, particularly fossil fuels?
• Think of the Canadian shale-oil exploration!
• Support not KILL biofuels!

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Main references

• FAO (2007) Stainable Bioenergy A Framework for
  Decision Makers, UN-FAO
• Hazel P Woods S. (2007) Drivers of Change on
  Global Agriculture, Philosophical Transactions of
  the Royal Society B. (2008) 363 495-515
• ROYAL SOCIETY (2008) Stainable Biofuels
  Prospects and Challenges, Royal Society, London,
  ISBN 978 0 85403 662 2
• Walter A, Rosillo-Calle, F, Dolzan P, Piacente E,
  Borges da Cunha K., (2008). Perspectives on fuel
  ethanol consumption and trade, Biomass and
  Bioenergy (in press)

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Freer trade fairer trade

• We need an agricultural revolution, primarily in
  developing countries
• Freer international bioenergy trade
• Fairer international trade
• Equal playing field for biofuels

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End

• Thank you!!