Livestock Situation and Outlook Ag Lenders Conference

1
Livestock Situation and OutlookAg Lenders
Conference

• Tim Petry
• Livestock Economist
• NDSU Extension Service

2
(No Transcript)
3
Web Address

• www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/lsmkt/livestock.htm
• Click on Ag Lenders Conference

4
Livestock Marketing Information Center
5
Livestock Marketing Information Center
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
Livestock Marketing Information Center
10

• The highest cattle prices usually occur during
  the accumulation (rebuilding) phase of the
  inventory cycle.
• When that occurs will depend on weather, but
  should be in the next several years.

11
Livestock Marketing Information Center
12
Livestock Marketing Information Center
13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
14
Livestock Marketing Information Center
15
Livestock Marketing Information Center
16
(No Transcript)
17
Livestock Marketing Information Center
18
Livestock Marketing Information Center
19
Livestock Marketing Information Center
20
(No Transcript)
21
Livestock Marketing Information Center
22
(No Transcript)
23
Livestock Marketing Information Center
24
Key Feeder Cattle Price Factors

• Corn Price?
• - each 10? increase in corn price
• 1 decrease in 5-600 lb steer price
• 0.50 decrease in 7-800 lb steer price
• FED Steer Price?
• - each 1 increase in fed steer price
• 1.50 increase in feeder price

25
SF_LS763Sioux Fall, SD Wed Oct 23, 2002
USDA-SD Ag Market News
Kist Livestock Auction, Mandan ND This week
2824 Last week 2354 Year ago
2848 Compared to last week lighter weight 450-550
lb. feeder steers and heifers sold 2.00-4.00
higher. The balance of the feeder steers and
heifers sold steady. Slaughter cows and
slaughter bulls sold 1.50lower. Supply about 76
pct. feeder cattle, 12 pct. slaughter cows, the
balance was feeder cows, slaughter bulls, and
bred cows. In the feeder division 63 pct. were
steers, 37 pct heifers. 47 pct of feeder cattle
over 600 lbs. Feeder Steer
Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt
Price Range Avg Price 12 364-396
374 99.00-103.50 101.69 48
415-449 434 94.75-98.00 95.81
73 455-490 473 87.25-93.25
89.74 208 507-546 528
82.00-89.50 87.37 164 550-597
568 79.75-87.00 83.85 246
601-649 625 79.00-84.75 82.11
60 607 607 85.60
85.60 Fancy 53 652-693 669
78.50-82.25 80.95 112 702-747
730 76.25-82.25 80.23 23
812-821 816 74.00-75.75 74.93
24 876 876 80.25
80.25 Thin 51 900-944 941
75.00-76.40 76.32 24 963-993
983 74.00-76.50 75.68 92
1063-1087 1075 73.90-74.00 73.95
26
Cattle Price Forecasts5-600 lb Steers
27
Cattle Price Forecasts7-800 lb Steers
28
Cattle Price Forecasts11-1300 lb Choice Steers
29
Return to Labor and Management at Alternative
PricesSteers Fed from 550 lbs. to 750 lbs. _at_
2.77 lbs. Adg.
30
Return to Labor and Management at Alternative
Feed PricesSteers Fed from 550 lbs. to 750 Lbs.
_at_ 2.77 lbs. Adg.
31
Hog Situation and
Outl
k
32
Commercial Pork Production
Breeding Hog Inventory
Livestock Marketing Information Center
33
Livestock Marketing Information Center
34
Theoretical Four-Year Hog Price, Inventory and
Production Cycles
35
Livestock Marketing Information Center
36
Livestock Marketing Information Center
37
(No Transcript)
38
Hog Price Forecasts
39
Lamb Situation and Outlook
40
(No Transcript)
41
Livestock Marketing Information Center
42
Livestock Marketing Information Center
43
Livestock Marketing Information Center
44
Livestock Marketing Information Center
45
Livestock Marketing Information Center
46
Lamb Price Outlook