The JRC Tsunami Model

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The JRC Tsunami Model

• A. Annunziato
• Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
• Institute for the Protection and Security of the
  Citizen
• Support to External Security
• DG-INFSO Info Day Paris 31 Jan 2006

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Summary

• The Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination
  System
• The JRC Tsunami model
• Application of the model
• Future developments

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European Union is a large donor for humanitarian
aid

• Humanitarian aid 2004
• Member states 867 million
• European Commission 570m
• European Union
• 53 of official dev. Aid (ODA)

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Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System

• GDACS funded by ECHO, who is also supporting
  UN-OCHA
• GDACS provides
• Predictable information of
• Predictable quality at
• Predictable time
• Natural Disasters
• Earthquakes
• Tropical Storms
• Volcanoes
• Through
• A network of computer systems and
• Internet technology Computer modeling
• Mainly task of JRC
• A network of disaster managers
• 24/7 duty connected to authorities
• Mainly task of OCHA

Alert
Model results
How many people??
Media analysis
Field Missions (Search Rescue)
What is needed now??
Remote Sensing damage analysis
time
time
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Monitoring and alerting
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Monitoring and alerting
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Earthquakes is it of humanitarian concern ?
Early Warning
M 6.7

• Population density model connected with magnitude
  of the disaster
• The objective is to distinguish between large
  earthquake in unpopulated regions and smaller
  earthquake in higher populated areas.

M 6.0
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Why a Tsunami model

• During the event of 26th dec. the earthquake
  alert tool of GDACS detected the event after 25
  min and alerted ECHO and OCHA with automatic SMS
  messages (in addition to email messages).
• However no tsunami model was present at that time
  in the GDACS
• Therefore the first month after the event it was
  decided to develop a Tsunami wave propagation
  model to be integrated in the GDACS system
• The objective was to develop a model with the
  following characteristics
• fast running (less than 1 minute calculation time
  !)
• reliable unbreakable
• automatically activated 24h 7/7 on request
• on any location of the world
• Integrated in the GDACS

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Tsunamis There will be a wave ?When the wave
will arrive ?

• In case the conditions for a Tsunami are
  identified the time of arrival of the wave is
  calculated automatically.
• JRC developed a fast running Tsunami model which
  is used to predict the time of arrival of the
  Tsunami wave
• The model is valid in all the world
• It is used since March 2005

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Details about the JRC model

• The model is based on the propagation speed
  evaluated as
• And then integrating it in all directions to find
  the arrival position
• In order to account diffraction each point
  represents a new source
• The model is independent on the earthquake
  magnitude. It calculates only the propagation
  time

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Calculation logic

• The calculation starts from the epicenter along
  all directions and evaluate the position after
  defined intervals
• The connection of the positions after 1h gives
  the wave position at that time
• From 1h all the points on that line becomes new
  sources for the wave which is then evaluated at
  the following hour.

1h
2h
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Calculation of 26th December Tsunami

• The simulation on the side has been obtained with
  the JRC Tsunami model and respects accurately the
  time of arrival of the wave.
• Calculation time 49 s.

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Comparison of MIST calculation with the JRC
Tsunami Model
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Tsunami Papua New Guinea 1998
Tsunami occurred in 1998 with 2500 deads Caused
by a 7.1 earthquake far from Aitape Village, 590
km from the capital Port Moresby The calculation
has been compared with existing literature 3d
calculations of this earthquake
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Example of a Tsunami in Mediterranean

• 018 Calabrian coasts
• 020 Greece
• 106 Napoli
• 112 Roma
• 230 Genova
• 250 Marseille
• 300 Barcelona
• 330 Tunis

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Web implementation of the Tsunami model

• The tsunami model has been implemented in a web
  procedure which allow
• Any user to perform on-line calculations from any
  location in the world
• To be reached by Tsunami alert systems which can
  reach the model perform a calculation and get
  back a propagation image

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Application of the JRC Tsunami Alert Tool
Logic adopted for the model -Epicenter in a
location above the water No tsunami is
possible -Epicenter in a location below the
water Mlt 6.5 no tsunami possible 6.5ltMlt7 low
probability tsunami 7ltMlt 7.5 medium probability
tsunami Mgt7.5 high probability of tsunami

• The application of the model since March 2005
  revealed
• No false alert until now
• 1 high probability event (Sumatra 28 march),
  really occurred
• 5 medium probability event

Sumatra, 28 mar.
Japan, 14 nov
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An example of the application of the JRC Tsunami
model

• 7.2 Richter earthquake off shore of Japan 14 Nov.
  2005
• Time of the event 2139 GMT
• Time of alert 34 minutes after the event
• Low Tsunami predicted to arrive to Japan coasts
  2220 GMT, 49 min, thus 15 minutes before the
  arrival of the Tsunami wave (small wave in this
  case)

Earthquake
GDACS SMSemail
Wave arrival
USGS
15
0
33
34
49
Minutes
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JRC Tsunami Alert Tool

• The JRC Tsunami model has been requested by
• University College London for integration in
  their GIS tool for Tsunami coastal vulnerability
• The Alfred-Wegener Institute of Polar and Ocean
  Research (AWI) which is part of the German
  Consortium for the Indian Ocean Early Warning
  System
• The 3M Future company in Germany which has a
  system for massive people alerting by SMSs.

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Future developments

• Estimation of the wave height
• Identify the possible run-up heights and flooded
  areas
• Geo identify the locations and the critical
  infrastructures which may be involved
• Initiate a detailed calculation with a more
  detailed model just after the quick calculation

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Conclusions

• JRC developed a fast running Tsunami model to
  serve as supporting analytical tool to early
  warning system
• The model, implemented since March 05 in the
  GDACS, allowed to identify all major (and minor)
  earthquake which could cause a Tsunami and give
  alerts (emailSMSs) to registered users
• 28 March 05, Sumatra
• 14 November, Japan
• Improvement to the model are currently being
  performed to be able to give an estimate of the
  wave height.

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http//www.gdacs.org
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http//asa2.jrc.it/tsunami/model
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GDACS partners
DG ECHO
Virtual Osocc UN OCHA